- Thread starter Olly
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2019 Hurricane Season
the invest wandering under unfavorable conditions westward on our mid tropical highway,
should not become any concern as far as stormy conditions go.
the tropical atlantic is on the 100 final miles east of the Islands hostile against storm development.
at the moment we alsohave the atmosphere out there very dry, filled by a nice thick layer of Saharan Sandmasses.
View attachment 3137
should not become any concern as far as stormy conditions go.
the tropical atlantic is on the 100 final miles east of the Islands hostile against storm development.
at the moment we alsohave the atmosphere out there very dry, filled by a nice thick layer of Saharan Sandmasses.
View attachment 3137
just a lil info, even that the whole thing is not of much importance to Us, but it started near our home isle.
the disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea will be brought WNW'wards by a Tropical wave towards Florida.
there is zero chance to become anything stormy near our soil,
but as Karma is a biatch, chances are high to see the next Tropical Depression out of this one around the Florida Straight, where conditions are favorable for further development.
as opposed to the ****ty US Media's reporting about this lovely Island,
the DR is Safe to be, with or without storms, while the otha side of the water can have their own and report about it how ever they like.
here on the PR Radar Loop you can see the not too heavy weather moving in
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
the disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea will be brought WNW'wards by a Tropical wave towards Florida.
there is zero chance to become anything stormy near our soil,
but as Karma is a biatch, chances are high to see the next Tropical Depression out of this one around the Florida Straight, where conditions are favorable for further development.
as opposed to the ****ty US Media's reporting about this lovely Island,
the DR is Safe to be, with or without storms, while the otha side of the water can have their own and report about it how ever they like.
here on the PR Radar Loop you can see the not too heavy weather moving in
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Next thing you know they'll declare Florida in a state of emergency, CNN will show a couple of flooded streets and a few puddles and people will be stuck to their TVs and calling friends and family to see if they're OK, they will believe anything CNN says
yeah, they don't vacation in DR anymore, so they can spend the saved money on such things.
Actually, it could be a yes for some, as the COE has already issued an alert. Estimates of 4-6 inches of rain are forecasted. As reported in DR1 Daily News of today Tuesday, 30 July 2019.....
Rains on the way
The director of the Center for Emergency Operations (COE), General Juan Manuel Méndez has recommended that those living near rivers and streams stay alert to possible flooding. He called for monitoring weather bulletins. A weather disturbance is expected to produce cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A trough is expected to merge with a passing tropical wave resulting in heavy rains as of Wednesday, 31 July 2019 through Friday.
The National Meteorological Office of the Dominican Republic (Onamet) forecasts thunderstorms across most of the country. Nevertheless, 10 provinces are in green alert. These are Santo Domingo, San Pedro de Macoris, Monte Plata, San Cristóbal, Hato Mayor, Monseñor Nouel (Bonao), La Vega, Sánchez Ramírez (Cotuí), Duarte (San Francisco de Macorís) and El Seibo.
https://eldia.com.do/onda-tropical-p...ta-el-viernes/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
If we get such rain amounts it will be very welcomed.
the actual look on the system shows it's strong waterfilled NE quadrant over the NE and off the NE of PR,
so onit's actual NW movement the mayority will sty N of DR.
the central part is fairly dry and the southern parts are water amounts which are welcomed, nothing drastic.
the 2nd Invest, located S of the cape Verde Islands, has for severaldays no chance to any development
and later on, closer to the Island Belt, by actual conditions very low chances for development.
it anyways is on a track which should move it northwards to miss the caribbean Islands on the NE.
the actual look on the system shows it's strong waterfilled NE quadrant over the NE and off the NE of PR,
so onit's actual NW movement the mayority will sty N of DR.
the central part is fairly dry and the southern parts are water amounts which are welcomed, nothing drastic.
the 2nd Invest, located S of the cape Verde Islands, has for severaldays no chance to any development
and later on, closer to the Island Belt, by actual conditions very low chances for development.
it anyways is on a track which should move it northwards to miss the caribbean Islands on the NE.
the thunder rolls over Punta Cana tonight.
but the weather radar also shows that most rain should pass us off our North.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
but the weather radar also shows that most rain should pass us off our North.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
the Tropical Wave passed us nicely quick and painless last night and is already centered between the North of the DR and the SE'ern Bahamas. it's weak Tails moving through as we speak and during today does not contain any heavy winds nor heavy rains, so for today we have some clouds and SUNshine changing places on lowest to zero winds, calm Ocean, very few short showers only in some specific areas and by tomorrow all should already be back to normal DR Sunshine Fun Weather.
Above weather description is valid for my eye-observed home turf Punta Cana.
other areas, special the mountainous central DR will have more rain during today and it can be strong amounts at times, impossible to estimate from here.
NOW,
the 2nd Invest, located on the Eastern Highway, still no chance to develop during this week,
is moving on very constant 15mphr Westward towards the Caribbean.
harsh storm conditions on teh final 1000 miles East of the Islands are going down and the high windshear there is expected to collapse after the weekend.
!!This is a Looong shot Outlook!!:
by actual forecasts of shifting conditions(which could change completely by tomorrow or after or ....)
this Disturbance, transported by a strong stable Tropical Wave, could become a quick developing Tropical Depression just a couple hundred miles+ East of the Island Belt.
with a expected calm and hot Eastern Caribbean Sea, a approaching/entering Tropical Depression could become a quick developing system.
by now, as a solely Invest, the Tropical Wave would miss the Caribbean Islands close on their NE,
But if it becomes a TD with rising powers 500-800 miles East of the Islands, then such brewing storm would take a more straight Westward Heading and more likely Enter the eastern Caribbean Sea instead of passing on the NE.
so while all is a very uncertain LongShot by now,
this is a first of the Season which we will monitor from this coming weekend on.
Above weather description is valid for my eye-observed home turf Punta Cana.
other areas, special the mountainous central DR will have more rain during today and it can be strong amounts at times, impossible to estimate from here.
NOW,
the 2nd Invest, located on the Eastern Highway, still no chance to develop during this week,
is moving on very constant 15mphr Westward towards the Caribbean.
harsh storm conditions on teh final 1000 miles East of the Islands are going down and the high windshear there is expected to collapse after the weekend.
!!This is a Looong shot Outlook!!:
by actual forecasts of shifting conditions(which could change completely by tomorrow or after or ....)
this Disturbance, transported by a strong stable Tropical Wave, could become a quick developing Tropical Depression just a couple hundred miles+ East of the Island Belt.
with a expected calm and hot Eastern Caribbean Sea, a approaching/entering Tropical Depression could become a quick developing system.
by now, as a solely Invest, the Tropical Wave would miss the Caribbean Islands close on their NE,
But if it becomes a TD with rising powers 500-800 miles East of the Islands, then such brewing storm would take a more straight Westward Heading and more likely Enter the eastern Caribbean Sea instead of passing on the NE.
so while all is a very uncertain LongShot by now,
this is a first of the Season which we will monitor from this coming weekend on.
for us on the southern tip of the East Shores in Punta Cana/Cap Cana, the tail of the Wave passed and we are this morning already back to mostly sunshine, with just some lighter clouds from the far back-end moving through during today.
our wind continues completely dead calm.
the effects usually last for more hours at our higher elevations,where strong rainclouds get stuck like in a traffick jam, but this wave passed and is gone.
Now to the next Invest.
the long range forecasts for conditions on the final 500 miles East of the Islands and for the Eastern Caribbean Sea did not shift/change a little bit,they keep prognosting favorable conditions for Storm Development for this weekend,
so the chances to get a Storm forming East of the Islands Increase immensely every hour those forecasts don't change.
for the next couple days the Invest move's way too far south of the 10thN to get any Tropical stormy character, but the steering patterns for the 2nd half of the Highway are the usual NW/WNW, so it should climb the map on time to be in a apropriate Position and under favorable Conditions at the right time.
chances are very high to see a Storm of the strength of a Tropical Depression by Monday.
the Tracking makes it very unlikely to point on the DR, good chances to point on PR(SE to NW Pass on PR's East)
and highest chances to wander of their Northernmost Islands of the Belt/Virgin islands or missing those northernmost Island close out on their NE.
as for Local weather/Sea conditions here on the Eastern Tip of the Isle,
for the next days winds will stay on there average 10-12knots max, offshore Sea off the East coast stays on normal 4-5ft long rolling calm conditions.
our wind continues completely dead calm.
the effects usually last for more hours at our higher elevations,where strong rainclouds get stuck like in a traffick jam, but this wave passed and is gone.
Now to the next Invest.
the long range forecasts for conditions on the final 500 miles East of the Islands and for the Eastern Caribbean Sea did not shift/change a little bit,they keep prognosting favorable conditions for Storm Development for this weekend,
so the chances to get a Storm forming East of the Islands Increase immensely every hour those forecasts don't change.
for the next couple days the Invest move's way too far south of the 10thN to get any Tropical stormy character, but the steering patterns for the 2nd half of the Highway are the usual NW/WNW, so it should climb the map on time to be in a apropriate Position and under favorable Conditions at the right time.
chances are very high to see a Storm of the strength of a Tropical Depression by Monday.
the Tracking makes it very unlikely to point on the DR, good chances to point on PR(SE to NW Pass on PR's East)
and highest chances to wander of their Northernmost Islands of the Belt/Virgin islands or missing those northernmost Island close out on their NE.
as for Local weather/Sea conditions here on the Eastern Tip of the Isle,
for the next days winds will stay on there average 10-12knots max, offshore Sea off the East coast stays on normal 4-5ft long rolling calm conditions.
looks all good for us so far.
the Invest, by now running half way on the Highway between Africa and Caribbean,
seems not to get it's act together and conditions East of the Caribbean look not good anymore for after the weekend, neither.
the Tracking is show more NW than W, so it should pass the Islands on their NE in a safe distance,
despite that it looks actually very unlikely to get a Storm forming out of this Disturbance near our homeland in the first place.
WEEEEKEND WARRIOR.
have a great one, y'all.
the Invest, by now running half way on the Highway between Africa and Caribbean,
seems not to get it's act together and conditions East of the Caribbean look not good anymore for after the weekend, neither.
the Tracking is show more NW than W, so it should pass the Islands on their NE in a safe distance,
despite that it looks actually very unlikely to get a Storm forming out of this Disturbance near our homeland in the first place.
WEEEEKEND WARRIOR.
have a great one, y'all.
It seems a worse than average Hurricane season is expected by some (note the hilarious translation error in the first sentence!): https://dominicantoday.com/dr/local...canes-in-the-remainder-of-the-cyclone-season/
