2020 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

there is no newsto report about TS Josephine.
tracking sticks to WNW, it will stay far away from DR, it is very doubtful to still be a TS when on it's closest point to DR by the end of this weekend.
all powers, which are very week, are locted on the northern side, away from the anyways far away DR on the pass.
we keep watching but there is actually no danger anywhere around Paradise Islae.

 

[NanSanPedro]

there is no newsto report about TS Josephine.
tracking sticks to WNW, it will stay far away from DR, it is very doubtful to still be a TS when on it's closest point to DR by the end of this weekend.
all powers, which are very week, are locted on the northern side, away from the anyways far away DR on the pass.
we keep watching but there is actually no danger anywhere around Paradise Islae.

Good job Mike in keeping it away from us. We appreciate it!!

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

This is exactly the type of information and knowledgeable opinion we feared losing when Mike disappeared. I feel much better about what the NHC says when Mike backs up their forecasts and projections. Thanks Mike for being here with us.

 

[MikeFisher]

no surprises with Josephne during last night.
Tracking WNW, powers are week and not rising, no pressure drop andball located NW, N andNE of the Center.
the S been cut off due he formerly high winds blowing E-W on the Storm's southern quadrants.
those winds are gone now.
instead the formerly mentioned windshear W-E will set in on the Storm's NWern Quadrant, so it should loose even more powers due that influence.
we have on the Tropical Atlantic only one more Tropical Wave near behind Josephine, but not associated with any surface Low.
so far all looks fine and quiet for several days to come.

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Josephine is not bringing any surprises, all running as expected from early on.
the windshear towards it's W and NW and the dry saharan air did their job to hinder any growing of powers.
no clear formation, barely visible center, TS Force Winds only present in 3 small areas.
this one should be ashamed to be named a Storm, lol.
I doubt that Josephine will survive this sunday as a TS.
we have no other systems anywhere near, not even expected to be in the make,
so we are fine for some days to come.

Happy Sunny Sunday to everyone

 

[GringoRubio]

DR1, @MikeFisher does a great job, but we could use a Dominicana to explain it to us in detail:

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Mike is very clear and concise. His explanations I understand. A Domincana's frontal invests and non-english would just get in the way of the clear message for me. I am very greatful to Mike for his efforts and no not wish to see him supplanted by anyone, regardless of how easy they may be on the eyes. DR1 is not a visual medium anyways.

 

[william webster]

judging by his little girl,
Mike's🤦‍♀️🤷‍♀️ wife might be a good addition to the weather team !!

 

[MikeFisher]

before you hit me,
I agree to the new co-worker.
BUT,
I am not that suicidal to tell the news to my ole house dragon myself, some other valiente has to bite that soap, lol.

 

[MikeFisher]

as for Josephine,
not worth to show new maps or such,
as all stays on track as awaited.
walking on around 15mphr WNWwards, it stays nicely on distance to us.
and so far nothing else in sight, so we have more sunny worry free days ahead of us.
now, could someone PM me the number of my new assistance, PLEEEASE??

 

[william webster]

1-800-big-boobs

 

[MikeFisher]

1-800-big-boobs

dialed,
the mesage tells me then that I can not dial that toll free number from my DR cell.
so back to my ole House Dragon it is

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Another spot of interest just popped up on the NHC map already more than half way to the Windward Islands. Looks like it might be Caribbean Sea bound.

 

[MikeFisher]

this Wave is indeed Caribbean Sea bound, i just did not expect it to produce anything significant, as there was no surface pressure Low near.
I expected to fiirst maybe get a Invest out of the Tropical Wave, which is leaving the african continent now/this evening,
as that one carries a large amount of moisture.
so we will watch both during this weekend, to see if any get's a chance to produce storm powers.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

The new wave off Africa seems more likely to become a significant concern. I'm not liking the odds when we get one weather feature one after the other lined up like freight cars on a train. It's going to be a worrisome few months until the end of the season.

 

[MikeFisher]

it was awaited to come this way, this will be a long season, as the hot waters on the tropical atlantic could stay with their surface temps over the treashold for storm development til deep into november. but the SST is not the only decider to make storm development possible, so about the end of season we speculate when in october.
NOW:
the Tropical Atlantic Highway has all the way from East Africa to the Caribbean exceptionally hot waters, way over the margin needed to allow storm development.
on average the Highway run's 0.5C warmer than usual for this time of the year. such is named a Ocean Temp Abnormally of +0.50.
looking on the Caribbean Sea it is even worse, the temp abnormally there is a full +1.00.
the Southern Lane of the Highway, between 10thN - 13thN, is free of W-E Windshear and contains little to no dry Saharan Airmasses.
the Caribbean Sea is actually free of windshear and does not contain any significant dry air amounts.
in short:
a system running between the 10th-13th N on the tropical highway or anywhere in the Caribbean Sea,
has at the moment perfect conditions for storm development, already formed storms have there top fueling conditions to develop.

TS Josephine is a weak one which took the path of unfavorable conditions and did not show any surprises.
it run from the beginning the way we expected it to do and also as expected already lost it's TS formation, continues as a TD.

the system around 750miles E of the Central Antilles is a Southern Lane Runner.
the system is weak, but it has not to fight off any windshear nor dry air, so there are chances to see a small storm brewing out of this.
at the moment is is running forward on around 20mphr, which will not allow fast development for a small weak system.
once it enters the caribbean sea, the forward speed should slow down and allow significant changes to the formation.
a power forecast is impossibe at this time, as such small stuff can and does change extremely quick one way or an other.
under actual conditions in the caribbean sea such could form a small but strong fueld TS within no time, other times such systems disappear surprisingly due some small bothering influence.
it's Tracking is mostly W, WWNWwards, so it very likely will enter the caribbean sea over the middle of the Antilles and walk the Caribbean Sea WWNW then.
that way it would pass nicely out of our S over water, but such has to be seen once it is in the caribbean sea.

the 2nd system, around the Cape Verde Islands, looks bound for a similar way, it also does not look powerful, but it carries a good amount of moisture already.
we have to see, if this also will speed on a mostly straight Westward Track, it will take some days to get a better idea.
if it stays south between forementioned 10th-13thN, then it has a very favorable pavement to develop little by little even out of a weak system.

for this moment, we are not in danger, but we keep a close eye on the one approaching the northern Windward Islands today and tomorrow.
once it is in the Caribbean Sea it can change a lot for both, good or bad.

 

[Jim L]

Thanks Mike I'm new in here. Great to have found your awesome prediction thread.

 

[Caonabo]

There IS a storm a brewin' out there.
I will leave the particulars to those in the know, but do your own selves a favour.....go shopping tomorrow and stock up. No, not panic purchase, but purchase those things that you MAY need in case of emergency. Those things you may want to have, for when the time comes that those things are not there.
It is never a bad thing to be the early bird.

 

[MikeFisher]

No News on the weather front tonight,
means we have to be cautious, ready to bring the cattle in on very short notice then.

we can disard Ex Josephine from watching, it is a EX.

the system far East is too far away to worry about,
so let's focus on the one right at the doorstep.

Sunday 9PM update on the system East of the Windward Islands:
it does not show big powers and at this moment no organization,
BUT Conditions are very favorable, they can allow even a weak system to become powerful in no time.
located just about 450 miles E of the Windward Islands it is coming in very fast, on around 20mphr
and it will be in the Caribbean Sea already tomorrow.
so what ever will happen, it will happen fast, all on short notice.
the expected Tracking of the System is a WWNW, entering the eastern caribbean sea over the northern Windward Islands.
it should pass our Island out on Sea somewhere 80-200 miles South of our South Shores.
no way to get any better tracking now, as no storm did form, yet, so things could change completely and bring us a TS towards our South Shores,
a scenario we always have to keep within possibilities on such quick approach.

my own best guess is a brewing storm in the make passing the DR S Shores 120 miles South, reaching TS Status on our S or when it just passed our S,
without becoming any big bother for us.
how far any winds or rain reach out from such center, I have no idea, as a storm first have to be formed to calculate such things.
the Caribbean Sea is almost completely free of any windshear and while we have no thick moisture areas present to be collected, we do not have any protecting dry saharan air layer, neither, so it is not out of the possibilities to see a TS Storm forming and gaining powers within just a few hours of time, once it passed the Antilles.

I don't see it at this moment to become a TS before reaching the S of us, as there is no organization to spot in the system,
BUT, it is small and conditions are favorable, so such organization can run the whole process within just hours.

we have to be vigilant of this little thing, even that chances are highest that we will not get anything of it.

Windshear over the Caribbean Sea:

 

[MikeFisher]

nothing happened during last night, that's good news.
the Tropical Wave over the Western Tropical Atlantic is approaching the Windward Islands today.
the system did not manage any organization, yet, so it keep's speeding on 20mphr Westward.
it will cross the Eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow and the Central Caribbean Sea S of DR on Wednesday, Tracking WWNW.
even that conditions are favorable for storm development, the non organization of the small weak system indicate's that no Storm will form during the next couple days. we just have to stay vigilant, as such small formations can change very quick.
the more precise tracking will show once in the Craibbean Sea, but at this moment it looks like it will stay well South of DR
and I don't see it to develop before it already reached the NorthWestern Caribbean Sea.
if this small system does not bring any big surprise, we stay fine for this week on the Isle.

the Tropical Wave SSW of the Cape Verde Islands needs more time to get a closer look on.
it is a wide elongated area of moisture, moving W on around 12mphr.
IF it develop's anything, it will leave us plenty of time to observe that later this week.