2021 Hurricane Season

Sailor51

2021 fashion statement
Oct 30, 2018
400
158
43
First Invest 90L 2021

The 2021 hurricane season is nearly upon us and it's already starting to make pre-official, start of the Atlantic Hurricane season just like Arthur in 2020!
From StormCarib :
90L has been designated for a closer look by the NHC as has been forecast in the last week or so by the long term genesis models. Located several hundred miles to the NE of Bermuda, it's forecast movement will be towards Bermuda with minimal impacts expected such as high waves, gusty winds and lashing rains but then is expected to pull back towards the NE with no threat to land masses while the shipping lanes will have a rough go.

This is not a tropical system but a potential sub tropical one with a large wind field, most thunderstorms and heavy convection displaced from the mainly cloud free "center" while being either warm or cold core. In essence, a hybrid of characteristics.

Tidbit: There is no such thing as a sub tropical hurricane for if their winds reach hurricane force, then that system would have evolved to become fully tropical.

That's it for now as breaktime is over. The first name on the board for this season is Ana. While it's a bit before the official start of the season, it's not too early to start preparations.

Be safe and prepared!

Thanks to Dave at Stormcarib.com

Olly and the Team
Congratuations on your knowledge of the Beaufort wind scale. Although not until recently have 'cold core' storms gotten a name. Even winter storms. Anyway, the race is on between 90 & 91L (just south of Texas) as to naming.
Should the Atlantic season begin the same as the Pacific? May 15th. Seems logical to me.
 

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
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I need to buy a 2nd propane container and fill it. That is like #1 on my STD list.
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,740
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Update as of 4th June :
New forecast calls for above average season
Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University came out with their updated forecast on 4th June for the 2021 season. They still expect an above average season with 17 named storms (=18 total, Ana included). Normal (last 30 year average) is 14.4 storms. They expect 8 hurricanes (7.2 is normal), of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal).

New this year are the 'tropical cyclone impact probabilities', basically the chance of one or more storms passing by you within 50 miles. They report location not only in the US but also in the Caribbean. Below a list of islands/regions showing the probability of >10% of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles and the long term mean (1851-2019). Note that it is a bit biased for the larger islands, since the bigger you are the higher the chance.

Island/Region 2021 'normal'
The Bahamas 40% 27%
Cuba 33% 22%
Mexico 24% 16%
Dominican Republic 23% 15%
Bermuda 16% 10%
Turks and Caicos 16% 10%
UK Virgin Islands 16% 11%
Puerto Rico 15% 10%
Anguilla 14% 9%
Antigua and Barbuda 14% 9%
Haiti 13% 8%
Saint Kitts and Nevis 13% 8%
US Virgin Islands 13% 8%

Thanks to Gert at https://stormcarib.com/ Stormcarib.com for this update.

Note that the DR has a nearly 1 in 4 probability of a major Hurricane.

Olly and the Team
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,347
1,576
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
thanks to AE the Topic is a Sticky now.
after 25 consecutive hurricane seasons on the Island, I will this season going MIA til the toughest part is over.
I will fly out end July and come back end Septermber/early October,
to take care of my beloved ole folks in germany, after my Mom will have a surgery.
I will of course be online (not during DR evenings, as that will be after midnight then for me 6 time zones ahead of the Isle),
but i will not be able to look on those skies and waters with my own eyes, just from far away online.
the Fisherman's way of social distancing to stormy formations, at least i will not have to wear a mask then, lol.
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
26,579
2,125
113
Update as of 4th June :
New forecast calls for above average season
Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University came out with their updated forecast on 4th June for the 2021 season. They still expect an above average season with 17 named storms (=18 total, Ana included). Normal (last 30 year average) is 14.4 storms. They expect 8 hurricanes (7.2 is normal), of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal).

New this year are the 'tropical cyclone impact probabilities', basically the chance of one or more storms passing by you within 50 miles. They report location not only in the US but also in the Caribbean. Below a list of islands/regions showing the probability of >10% of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles and the long term mean (1851-2019). Note that it is a bit biased for the larger islands, since the bigger you are the higher the chance.

Island/Region 2021 'normal'
The Bahamas 40% 27%
Cuba 33% 22%
Mexico 24% 16%
Dominican Republic 23% 15%
Bermuda 16% 10%
Turks and Caicos 16% 10%
UK Virgin Islands 16% 11%
Puerto Rico 15% 10%
Anguilla 14% 9%
Antigua and Barbuda 14% 9%
Haiti 13% 8%
Saint Kitts and Nevis 13% 8%
US Virgin Islands 13% 8%

Thanks to Gert at https://stormcarib.com/ Stormcarib.com for this update.

Note that the DR has a nearly 1 in 4 probability of a major Hurricane.

Olly and the Team

1 in 4 chance of passing within 50 miles.... hopefully not a direct hit

Maria was 75-100 miles off the north coast as I recall
 

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
3,004
2,411
113
thanks to AE the Topic is a Sticky now.
after 25 consecutive hurricane seasons on the Island, I will this season going MIA til the toughest part is over.
I will fly out end July and come back end Septermber/early October,
to take care of my beloved ole folks in germany, after my Mom will have a surgery.
I will of course be online (not during DR evenings, as that will be after midnight then for me 6 time zones ahead of the Isle),
but i will not be able to look on those skies and waters with my own eyes, just from far away online.
the Fisherman's way of social distancing to stormy formations, at least i will not have to wear a mask then, lol.
Prayers for you mom, Mike. I know it's rough.
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,347
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the Bahamas, SE Shores of the USA, the Southern Gulf of Mexico and part time the SWern Caribbean Sea are under conditions which would a tropical system allow development.
what ever would come out of Our East, would get it's Azz kicked on the final 1000 miles coming closer to the Caribbean
and the hostile windshear over the whole Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea would actually even knock out a super storm.
No way will we get a Storm form the East to manage to enter the Caribbean Sea, not even to come close to it,
there are absolutely no conditions to manage a formation.
Storms could actually form on the far East, even under actually not very favorable conditions,
but no way such storm could come into our vicinity.

There is No Highway paved out there off our East, yet.
 

franco1111

Bronze
May 29, 2013
1,106
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63
Gringo
I'm sure everyone has their own favorite source of storm information, but here's one. Five day.


1624933617948.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,347
1,576
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
in a few week's fromnow this could have become areal threat very early in the season, but not now.
it is a tropical wave in association with a very active system,
but conditions on those final 1000 miles towards the Caribbean are not in shape to allow any quick development, IF any development will show at all.
my best long range bet is a Tropical Wave which will mess with our weather conditions for the 2nd half of this week/coming weekend,
bringing rough Sea Conditions.
yeah, that could become a P.I.T.A. for myself with my fishing and Saona Island Tours, but so far just a "could".
at this moment there is nothing out there to worry about for us Islanders.
the positive thing so far for this summer,is that we will not face any drought conditions for this2021 summer season,
and that is despite the floodings in some areas a important positive.
a strong drought this summer, with prices of basic alimentations etc already on top margins, would have exploded the prices for our local DR products and brought uncalculable damage/difficulties to that important part of our economy and dangerous situations to the average folks not able to pay prices for simple stuff like chicken, pork, beef, yucca etc etc.
to date patterns promise a more wet than average summer for the country over all, and for this year that is not anything bad.
 

DR Solar

Bronze
Nov 21, 2016
1,504
309
83
in a few week's fromnow this could have become areal threat very early in the season, but not now.
it is a tropical wave in association with a very active system,
but conditions on those final 1000 miles towards the Caribbean are not in shape to allow any quick development, IF any development will show at all.
my best long range bet is a Tropical Wave which will mess with our weather conditions for the 2nd half of this week/coming weekend,
bringing rough Sea Conditions.
yeah, that could become a P.I.T.A. for myself with my fishing and Saona Island Tours, but so far just a "could".
at this moment there is nothing out there to worry about for us Islanders.
the positive thing so far for this summer,is that we will not face any drought conditions for this2021 summer season,
and that is despite the floodings in some areas a important positive.
a strong drought this summer, with prices of basic alimentations etc already on top margins, would have exploded the prices for our local DR products and brought uncalculable damage/difficulties to that important part of our economy and dangerous situations to the average folks not able to pay prices for simple stuff like chicken, pork, beef, yucca etc etc.
to date patterns promise a more wet than average summer for the country over all, and for this year that is not anything bad.
Welcome back. So many weather bubbles around the world. Every year we look at our weather protection and "what if?" Plans. All good but you are the final word. Thanks.
 
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