2024 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

When the night comes,
last night a thin but clearly present field of dry air moved in to cover parts of the Caribbean Sea and wind shear starts to blow over the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
The Tropical Wave is entering the Caribbean Sea over the Windward Islands as we speak, so conditions should not allow any development of the associated disturbed weather area while it will pass our South. It also will pass us far South, so nothing to worry about from that one.

 

[MikeFisher]

A little and painless outlook on what we should await for the next week.
The 2nd of the actually running 2 Tropical Waves on our Tropical Highway will likely catch up with an area of disturbed weather close to the E or W of the Leeward Islands. By the speed of each, such date would happen somewhere early next week, so by the end of this coming weekend we will get much more accurate info about it.
As far as conditions on the final few hundred miles E of the Lesser Antilles and W of those (Eastern Caribbean Sea) go,
we have at this moment(talking permanently changing/shifting conditions) a good amount of dry air in the mid atmosphere as an item to bother development,
but also high level wind conditions which are actually very favorable for storm development, over a very hot sea surface.

Here the actual positioning of the Tropical Waves over the Tropical Atlantic Highway:

Here location and density of the actual mid-atmosphere dry air/Saharan Air Layer:

Here locations and strength of actually present Wind Shear (It is at the moment for most parts a "negative wind shear", means quiet favorable for storm development:

So far no real danger for our Island anywhere to spot, at the end of the weekend we will take a look on positioning and shape of this one, IF Wave and Disturbed Weather manage to come together to interact in any significant way.
For this coming weekend all looks fine and clear.

Cheers

 

[MikeFisher]

As I am 6 hrs ahead of DR Time, here comes my Sunday night update.
Disturbance 1 is now on the final 1000 miles of the approach of the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC gives it a 80% for the next 48 hrs and 90% for the next 7 days to become at least a Tropical Depression.
As conditions are just mediocre at best, but "could" better during the next days, it could become a TD or maybe TS by Tuesday near the Northern Leewarrd Islands.
I see that it went less organized today and may fall apart all together, but it could survive.
If it survives and forms a weak storm, like a TD or TS near the northern Islands, I see it positioned more North and miss the Greater Antilles.
It could brush the northernmost Islands, on a WNW Tracking, but I do not see it in an dangerous range towards the DR, I see it passing NE and N of DR.
IF there would be a strong storm during the next 24-20 hrs, then such would get it's tracking influenced by the strong Atlantic High and be steered for several days almost straight Westward into the Caribbean Sea, close to the S of PR and DR,
but that is a big "IF" which I do at this moment not see to happen, conditions are not in shape for such.
Sure we watch such thing until it really passed our area, as we never know what weird (Trumpeter, lol) kinda moves such thing could do,
but to me it looks all fine on the storm front for the next days to come.
Cheers from super hot Germany(36C for my home town for tomorrow again)

 

[melphis]

Thanks for the update Mike. 2 weeks ago I was in western Canada and it was 36 to 38c with 0 humidity. It's 33c in Bavaro today with humidity you can cut with a knife. Thankfully I am going back at the end of August and then back Nov 1.
Sure hope this depression doesn't turn into Ernesto. I can live without being in a hurricane

 

[chico bill]

Thanks for the update Mike. 2 weeks ago I was in western Canada and it was 36 to 38c with 0 humidity. It's 33c in Bavaro today with humidity you can cut with a knife. Thankfully I am going back at the end of August and then back Nov 1.
Sure hope this depression doesn't turn into Ernesto. I can live without being in a hurricane

I think this is the coolest summer on the North Coast we've had since I've been here for the last 7 years

 

[MikeFisher]

So here we go with the new week's Monday morning update(Sunday Night for the ones on the Island, lol).
Wind powers decided to declare the disturbance TD5 on the map.
It should be TS Ernesto later today(late Monday DR Time).
I don't see any well organization, it is widespread and will face some struggles on it's NW with a small area of medium power wind shear and some lighter density of dry air in the mid and lower atmosphere, so I do not see a chance that this storm could become a Hurricane before it reaches the waters N of the Greater Antilles, somewhere during Thursday, maybe late Wednesday.
The Tracking looks as awaited on the Northern tendency,
means a "TS Ernesto" will wander mid Tuesday morning(DR time) over the Northern Leeward Islands and that's the position when it should start it's "turn" more Northwards, a NW Track and then NNW Track away from the Greater Antilles. Now, approaching the Leeward Islands, it is tracking WNW, forced on that W-Tendency due a strong High Pressure Ridge along it's far N on the North Atlantic.
It could come as close as Eastern PR towards Us, more likely it will only touch lightly the US Virgin Islands as a TS and from there track NW and continue with the Turn NNW and finally N, to stay nicely far out on our East, leaving Us on the "weaker" side of a simple TS.
The long range outlook several days into the future is difficult, as this Disturbance been declared a TS just a couple hours ago,
so the real powers to be awaited by mid week and after are at this moment a big guess, but will get more precise very soon, as soon as a TS is up and running for some hours, so the forward speed and speed of development can be estimated under the then given conditions on it's more accurate tracking.
If this slows down a bit, it could be a Hurricane Cat1 N of Western PR or N of the Mona Passage, on a "leaving tracking"(means when riding away from Us).
In that case we would be on the Weak SW of a Leaving still not powerful Cat1 Hurricane, which would not bring us in any danger due storm winds.
On which side it's heavier rain bands will be located can not be told until at least a TS is running organized since a while, at this moment all looks unorganized and spread out.
This would bring wave action towards the DR East and North Shores mid week ahead, during such constellation/positioning of a storm the S of DR often gets very quiet, calmer than usual.
Again:
This is a brand new formed at this moment small storm, it has to run for a while to get the better ideas about the upcoming power possibilities.

 

[MikeFisher]

Here is the link to the "Live" Floater, following TD5/in the future Ernesto as log as it will exist.
You need to refresh the page manually,
it shows the storm always with 50-90 minutes of a delay.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five at 14.4°N - 52.5°W - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[MikeFisher]

Tropical Storm Ernesto is born and tracking as I awaited yesterday,
despite that NHC showed it in the evening well more W, crossing Western Puerto Rico.
Ernesto is over the Northern Leeward Islands now and started it's "turn" towards more norther directions already.
It is tracking W-WNW, that keeps turning via WNW during today to NW by this evening,
Tonight it will cross over the US Virgin Islands/no more W than Eastern Puerto Rican Tip, as a Tropical Storm.
As awaited it get's bothered by dry air and wind shear on it's NW, so it's windfield will stay small and extend out of the center solely towards the NE and E of the storm, leaving DR not just on a safe distance but also on the well weaker side of a not powerful storm(not powerful as long as within our direct neighbourhood).
Sure we can get some rainfalls out of such, even low level storms can send rainbands out over quiet a distance, so as usual the ones living in those 10 times per year flooded areas on our E and NE, should be prepared for water, but I do not see any catastrophic amounts to be collected while we are within it's area of influence.
Heavy wave action can be expected all along the DR East Shores, no troubles for the Southern Shoreline, the North Coast may get some but it should not be anything of a mayor cause.
This Storm could become a Hurricane Cat1 Force as early as Wednesday night,
but due it's high forward speed of at least 20mphr it will be by ten already on a very safe distance to DR far N of Samana.
So, under the line, in short:
We will observe the bypass of a low power TS.
We will not come near any TS Force winds.
We will not be in danger to receive any catastrophic conditions, not by winds, not by waves, not by rain falls, we will get just a little bit of each of those.
he only other Tropical Wave running our Tropical Highway at this moment, is located far out by the 30thW and actual conditions do not sugerate that it could catch up with any area of disturbed weather on it's way hooward West, so after Ernesto the rest of the week has great chances to stay quiet.

 

[RDKNIGHT]

Tropical Storm Ernesto is born and tracking as I awaited yesterday,
despite that NHC showed it in the evening well more W, crossing Western Puerto Rico.
Ernesto is over the Northern Leeward Islands now and started it's "turn" towards more norther directions already.
It is tracking W-WNW, that keeps turning via WNW during today to NW by this evening,
Tonight it will cross over the US Virgin Islands/no more W than Eastern Puerto Rican Tip, as a Tropical Storm.
As awaited it get's bothered by dry air and wind shear on it's NW, so it's windfield will stay small and extend out of the center solely towards the NE and E of the storm, leaving DR not just on a safe distance but also on the well weaker side of a not powerful storm(not powerful as long as within our direct neighbourhood).
Sure we can get some rainfalls out of such, even low level storms can send rainbands out over quiet a distance, so as usual the ones living in those 10 times per year flooded areas on our E and NE, should be prepared for water, but I do not see any catastrophic amounts to be collected while we are within it's area of influence.
Heavy wave action can be expected all along the DR East Shores, no troubles for the Southern Shoreline, the North Coast may get some but it should not be anything of a mayor cause.
This Storm could become a Hurricane Cat1 Force as early as Wednesday night,
but due it's high forward speed of at least 20mphr it will be by ten already on a very safe distance to DR far N of Samana.
So, under the line, in short:
We will observe the bypass of a low power TS.
We will not come near any TS Force winds.
We will not be in danger to receive any catastrophic conditions, not by winds, not by waves, not by rain falls, we will get just a little bit of each of those.
he only other Tropical Wave running our Tropical Highway at this moment, is located far out by the 30thW and actual conditions do not sugerate that it could catch up with any area of disturbed weather on it's way hooward West, so after Ernesto the rest of the week has great chances to stay quiet.

Mike what's your take on a flight leaving punta cana airport around 10.30 am Wednesday

 

[MikeFisher]

Mike what's your take on a flight leaving punta cana airport around 10.30 am Wednesday

In PUJ no flights should be bothered, unless a airline would decide to cancel a flight to not spend extra fuel to fly around a storm on the way from PUJ to your destin, due a storm being running on the path.
PUJ itself will not have any troublels and run business as usual.

 

[MikeFisher]

One thing I see during the last hours, is that it get's quickly organized, so it likely will not be even 24hrs until we see a Hurricane on the Map.
No change on Tracking.
Things then, specially powers, could change a lot and quickly when such Tropical Storm on the edge to a Hurricane will interact with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico.

 

[RDKNIGHT]

In PUJ no flights should be bothered, unless a airline would decide to cancel a flight to not spend extra fuel to fly around a storm on the way from PUJ to your destin, due a storm being running on the path.
PUJ itself will not have any troublels and run business as usual.

Thanks Mike

 

[RDKNIGHT]

One thing I see during the last hours, is that it get's quickly organized, so it likely will not be even 24hrs until we see a Hurricane on the Map.
No change on Tracking.
Things then, specially powers, could change a lot and quickly when such Tropical Storm on the edge to a Hurricane will interact with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico.

hopefully it dissolved to nothing

 

[BermudaRum]

hopefully it dissolved to nothing

The Dominicans in Bermuda (keeping it DR related) are hoping for the same by this weekend. 🤞

 

[MikeFisher]

Little by little TS Ernesto gets organized and should be a Cat1 Hurricane tonight.
It is over the Virgin Islands and will miss Puerto Rico very close to the PR East.
For us in DR it will only be the heavy Sea crushing waves on our East Shores.
I don´t think it will diminish/be taken down by something.
It will not interact with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico and the formerly bothering wind shear on it´s path is on retreat,
so the storm should little by little increase powers and reach Hurricane status tonight.
Time for a nap over here in the old land.

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Ernesto is now located N of Puerto Rico, tracking NW on a 16mphr forward speed, a fairly quick hit&run.
it did not manage to reach Hurricane Powers, yet, development is happening slow and it does not look anything nicely formed/structured.
Some heavy weather pieces separated from the center and are carried now on the far S of it, so that could be heavy weather to be moved over DR, but hard to tel how much rain or some wind it still contains when being pushed over there.

 

[LindseyKaufman]

At 3:30 we had lots of lightening and heavy rains for about an hour. It is now over and quiet as can be. (Jamao)

 

[MariaRubia]

Mike please can we have your expert opinion on the big yellow blob that looks like it's heading right towards us on the NHC website?

 

[reilleyp]

While we wait for Mike's reply, this is an interesting read as it relates to what has been a quiet start to the hurricane season in the DR;

MSN

 

[MikeFisher]

So far it is only a Tropical Wave moving some moisture from E to W, which is the most normal thing to happen and the reason why the Caribbean is not a unfriendly dry Desert. Those Waves moving moisture are our Water Source, we could not survive without this natural cycle.
At this moment no kind of organization is visible, no Low Pressure Area present, so even under the actually quiet good conditions favoring storm development, I don't see a storm brewing from this "rainy area" for the next days to come until deep into next week.
We will see what it looks like towards the end of this weekend, if some organization get's visible we will watch it,
but for now it is nothing to worry about.
Here a cut out of the Tropical Atlantic's Mid Atmosphere Moisture/Water Content from this morning(middle of the night by DR Time):
Disturbance 1 is spread out, not organized, no high moisture density, just water moved forward by a Tropical Wave.
What I marked as Area X (as it is not "named"/shown by the weather sites), is a very dense moisture area, formed together over a wide area moving together, showing a 4mb lower Surface Pressure than it's neighboured Surroundings, but not associated with an Tropical Wave to catch quick forward moves.
The next Tropical Wave to catch up with this area, is located several days behind it over Western Africa, still far over land there(outside of the shown map).
If it holds up density and formation until interaction with the Wave, it would become very likely a system to watch out for,
but it could also dissipate long before the Wave will reach the area S of the Cape Verde Islands.

Happy Weekend everyone,
it does not look as if something could bother our Paradise Island Weekend Activities.