And we continue to be all fine for this weekend and early next week.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Have a great weekend everyone.
- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
2024 Hurricane Season
The unorganized Area of Disturbed Weather out on the Far East is moved by the Tropical Wave that just hit Atlantic Waters last night.
Movement should be slowly towards the W for the next few days.
During that Movement no significant organization/development should happen.
The Low is trapped by High Pressure Areas on all sides, hence it will move Westward slowly for some days.
As the worst case scenario it will be a TD/TS in 72hrs, but at this moment I doubt it will manage this step that quick.
Anyways, no matter If/When it gets better organized, after that 2-3 days from now period it will reach a point where it's surroundings open a "Way Out", it will have a NNW-NW Path open then. This means it will never come close to the Caribbean, it should move NWern directions missing the Caribbean far out on our NE or even completely move N on empty open Atlantic Waters.
Anything else shown on the NHC Maps at this moment, will never become any concern for DR.
All looks very fine and without any Threat for our Paradise Island for many days to come.
Have a beautiful Sunday everyone.
Movement should be slowly towards the W for the next few days.
During that Movement no significant organization/development should happen.
The Low is trapped by High Pressure Areas on all sides, hence it will move Westward slowly for some days.
As the worst case scenario it will be a TD/TS in 72hrs, but at this moment I doubt it will manage this step that quick.
Anyways, no matter If/When it gets better organized, after that 2-3 days from now period it will reach a point where it's surroundings open a "Way Out", it will have a NNW-NW Path open then. This means it will never come close to the Caribbean, it should move NWern directions missing the Caribbean far out on our NE or even completely move N on empty open Atlantic Waters.
Anything else shown on the NHC Maps at this moment, will never become any concern for DR.
All looks very fine and without any Threat for our Paradise Island for many days to come.
Have a beautiful Sunday everyone.
Time for an update, so you don't think I definitely retired to the Ranch and canceled my Starlink Internet up here on the lil hill, lol.
The Map is full, absolutely usual for this time of the year, as we are for DR still in the peak time of the Season and that should continue for an other 4 weeks at least.
Conditions out off our far East are for most part favorable-perfect for development of Disturbed Weather Areas into Storms.
Disturbance1:
This bad weather area is located over the Western Caribbean Sea and has good chances to form a TD/TS by Thursday of this week.
If this happens around the channel between Cuba ad Yucatan or in the SEern Gulf, that would be a storm on the Path of Helene and growing under very good conditions, so it will be monitored by the Ones living on it's path along Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and up Landinward, as I imagine the grounds to be saturated due the pass of Helene, which brought waterloads way up North.
No threat from this one for us Islanders here.
Isaac:
Down to just a TS, it is heading towards the cold waters off Ireland/towards Iceland, but will go down before reaching any of those.
This one never been and never will become a threat for our Island.
Joyce:
Joyce is on its way down, as awaited Tracking Northwards to the Hurricane Graveyard, it will not have more than 48hrs before disappearing from the Maps, it never was a Threat for DR.
TD12:
This is a very bad system with a top conditions window of estimated 5 days and maybe over.
This will be the next Hurricane of high class powers, maybe the next Mayor Hurricane, popping up before the weekend.
Like with the prior storms out of this area, steering patterns continue towards NW and later NNW, so it should never become a threat for the Caribbean.
We are safe from that one here on our Island.
Disturbance2:
This is the system we Islanders have to watch.
It is located S of the Cabo Verde Islands on the 10thN, a Area of Disturbed Weather in association with a surface low, driven forward by a tropical wave heading straight W from that position, so it's Destin is def the Caribbean/close pass by the Caribbean.
This far ahead of time the forecasts about the conditions over the different portions over the Highway are full of uncertainties, so it takes a few days to get a more reliable look on the conditions to await on the path of this system.
Pretty sure by Thursday/Friday we will see a storm running out there and by then the conditions on it's Track will be more reliable to estimate any powers.
From this area under given steering patterns it will be very likely that such storm will meet the Caribbean over the Leeward Islands or, if we get lucky, a close pass by on the NE.
So out of all the stuff shown on the Map, This is the one we will have an eye on, it is the only actually shown system that has probabilities to become a Threat for our area of the Caribbean.
The Map is full, absolutely usual for this time of the year, as we are for DR still in the peak time of the Season and that should continue for an other 4 weeks at least.
Conditions out off our far East are for most part favorable-perfect for development of Disturbed Weather Areas into Storms.
Disturbance1:
This bad weather area is located over the Western Caribbean Sea and has good chances to form a TD/TS by Thursday of this week.
If this happens around the channel between Cuba ad Yucatan or in the SEern Gulf, that would be a storm on the Path of Helene and growing under very good conditions, so it will be monitored by the Ones living on it's path along Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and up Landinward, as I imagine the grounds to be saturated due the pass of Helene, which brought waterloads way up North.
No threat from this one for us Islanders here.
Isaac:
Down to just a TS, it is heading towards the cold waters off Ireland/towards Iceland, but will go down before reaching any of those.
This one never been and never will become a threat for our Island.
Joyce:
Joyce is on its way down, as awaited Tracking Northwards to the Hurricane Graveyard, it will not have more than 48hrs before disappearing from the Maps, it never was a Threat for DR.
TD12:
This is a very bad system with a top conditions window of estimated 5 days and maybe over.
This will be the next Hurricane of high class powers, maybe the next Mayor Hurricane, popping up before the weekend.
Like with the prior storms out of this area, steering patterns continue towards NW and later NNW, so it should never become a threat for the Caribbean.
We are safe from that one here on our Island.
Disturbance2:
This is the system we Islanders have to watch.
It is located S of the Cabo Verde Islands on the 10thN, a Area of Disturbed Weather in association with a surface low, driven forward by a tropical wave heading straight W from that position, so it's Destin is def the Caribbean/close pass by the Caribbean.
This far ahead of time the forecasts about the conditions over the different portions over the Highway are full of uncertainties, so it takes a few days to get a more reliable look on the conditions to await on the path of this system.
Pretty sure by Thursday/Friday we will see a storm running out there and by then the conditions on it's Track will be more reliable to estimate any powers.
From this area under given steering patterns it will be very likely that such storm will meet the Caribbean over the Leeward Islands or, if we get lucky, a close pass by on the NE.
So out of all the stuff shown on the Map, This is the one we will have an eye on, it is the only actually shown system that has probabilities to become a Threat for our area of the Caribbean.
Mike as you suggested I am monitoring the disturbance at the bottom right. NHC is showing it moving very slowly westwards over the next few days. After that Windy suggests that it will turn north and become a graveyard runner. Is it too early to say or have you got any thoughts?
You can not rely on a computer animation for a storm that has not even formed, yet.
Tracking starts at the exact location where a storm is up and running, a disturbed weather area without the spin will just be pushed Westward by the Tropical Wave it is associated with.
A Storm has to be up and running to Start Tracking Patters.
This TD/TS could be up later today or also take two more days before showing a center to get it's stormy number/name.
From there on the computer models calculating possible Powers and the ones calculating conditions for tracking can do their job.
To think a Windy-Forecast would know such things is like looking on the simple weather app on a smartphone and believe when that one tells you that in 2 weeks from now over your house it will rain/shine, impossible.
The conditions/factors influencing the Tracking change permanently, even the power of a storm is one of the many many factors.
Without a storm there is no tracking.
Tracking starts at the exact location where a storm is up and running, a disturbed weather area without the spin will just be pushed Westward by the Tropical Wave it is associated with.
A Storm has to be up and running to Start Tracking Patters.
This TD/TS could be up later today or also take two more days before showing a center to get it's stormy number/name.
From there on the computer models calculating possible Powers and the ones calculating conditions for tracking can do their job.
To think a Windy-Forecast would know such things is like looking on the simple weather app on a smartphone and believe when that one tells you that in 2 weeks from now over your house it will rain/shine, impossible.
The conditions/factors influencing the Tracking change permanently, even the power of a storm is one of the many many factors.
Without a storm there is no tracking.
Understood. It's fascinating learning how this all works.
And wuuush TD13 is up and running, expected to drift Westward slowly,
to be a TS very soon and a Hurricane by the weekend.
The stronger the storm gets the more Northward it will drift,
with the actual positioning and forecasted moves of the strong Atlantic High on it's N and the cold ridge over the Central/Western Northatlantic,
it should move NW before the weekend and continue to move towards the uninhabited waters heading NW -NNW from there on.
So it looks like it will not become a threat for us over here.
We will monitor it through the weekend for any unexpected changes of the steering fronts for next week.
We can look forward to an other torching storm free weekend, get the beers cold and the BBQs ready.
to be a TS very soon and a Hurricane by the weekend.
The stronger the storm gets the more Northward it will drift,
with the actual positioning and forecasted moves of the strong Atlantic High on it's N and the cold ridge over the Central/Western Northatlantic,
it should move NW before the weekend and continue to move towards the uninhabited waters heading NW -NNW from there on.
So it looks like it will not become a threat for us over here.
We will monitor it through the weekend for any unexpected changes of the steering fronts for next week.
We can look forward to an other torching storm free weekend, get the beers cold and the BBQs ready.
the moisture, also disturbed weather areas, are carried by the tropical waves from E to W, they are located Low/near the ground.
When a tropical storm forms up that heavy weather area reaches higher up, so it gets influenced by winds on higher elevations.
The stronger a storm the higher up in the atmosphere it is built, so it's tracking is influenced by winds which are not necessarily heading into the same direction as the breeze we feel down here on the ground.
Thats the basic for tracking but there is much more involved.
When a tropical storm forms up that heavy weather area reaches higher up, so it gets influenced by winds on higher elevations.
The stronger a storm the higher up in the atmosphere it is built, so it's tracking is influenced by winds which are not necessarily heading into the same direction as the breeze we feel down here on the ground.
Thats the basic for tracking but there is much more involved.
Thanks Mike. This stuff is fascinating.
TS Leslie is up and running and growing quick and strong, despite the harsh windshear and bad conditions thrown in its face by nearby Hurricane Kyle.
Kyle is a muscleman, it should pass the border to become a Mayor Hurricane during the next few hours, also despite above medium strength windshear on its way and not the least bothered by the dry air layers.
Those 2 coming towards inhabited land would have been bad, forming without the present windshear they would have become Superstorms reaching the top of the Scale.
As for DR, so far, we have a super quiet and calm season this year, nobody would complain if all our summers would run that smooth and safe,
but the season for the basin over all had already 14 named storms with several high power hurricanes.
Luckily only Hurricane Helene did reach land at high powers, and at the end it's rainloads sadly been more dangerous and devastating than the super powers of its wind forces.
We still have 3-4 more weeks to go before conditions may start to calm down somewhat, but so far it all went good.
Kyle is a muscleman, it should pass the border to become a Mayor Hurricane during the next few hours, also despite above medium strength windshear on its way and not the least bothered by the dry air layers.
Those 2 coming towards inhabited land would have been bad, forming without the present windshear they would have become Superstorms reaching the top of the Scale.
As for DR, so far, we have a super quiet and calm season this year, nobody would complain if all our summers would run that smooth and safe,
but the season for the basin over all had already 14 named storms with several high power hurricanes.
Luckily only Hurricane Helene did reach land at high powers, and at the end it's rainloads sadly been more dangerous and devastating than the super powers of its wind forces.
We still have 3-4 more weeks to go before conditions may start to calm down somewhat, but so far it all went good.
Thank you for your forecast as always. You wrote Leslie and Kyle. Did you mean to write Leslie and Kirk? Or are you referring to the yellow area below Texas on the seven day projection?