2024 Hurricane Season

MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Disturbance 1 is not of interest, as it is in the Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance2 should cross the Lesser Antilles by late Monday and could become a TD or max a TS S of PR/DR.
It's location and steering patterns should keep it well S of Us, without any dangers awaited at this moment,
but sure we will watch it, as ya never know when and how such things "change their mind".
Disturbance 3 is located well N of the "danger Path" and should not reach the Caribbean, very most likely it will never become any storm anyways.
Back to #2,
once in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, conditions for development are well favorable to let grow powers whatsoever may be present at that moment then,
But at this moment it is very unorganized, so nothing big nor quick will come out of it the next few days.

Happy Weekend everyone
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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It is just Saturday almost 6AM in DR, but for me it is already Saturday almost High Noon in Germany.
As I will pack my luggage this evening and have a full travel day tomorrow/Sunday, arriving back home on the Fisher Ranch not much before Sunday Midnight,
I took a last look on the weather now and will then be back online somewhere Monday Morning(DR Time) for the next check up.
There is nothing out there on the weather front that would indicate anything of a quick developing significant weather event to form for the next days to come, so it all looks safe and fine.
The Disturbance shown on the NHC Maps mid Highway is nothing mayor, will not develop and it is anyways not positioned to come anywhere close to DR.
Have a fantastic weekend everyone.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Too many scientists and too few hurricanes.
I love it exactly that way.
Sitting in the business class in Rain Out Frankfurt, the skies are crying as i leave, after 6 weeks of hottest days.
Scientists my Arse, we can't look on the weather for months ahead of time, impossible,
usually we don't get anything to trust in for more than 2 days ahead of time, and even that often enough fails any local BBQ Plans.
Cheers on the real weather, means way less hurricanes than the scientists try to promise months before each season.
 
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drstock

drstock

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chico bill said:
Interesting article on the quietness of this year's Atlantic
pjmedia.com

Where Are All the Hurricanes?

pjmedia.com pjmedia.com
Click to expand...
From the article: "The predictions and the reality of what's happening point to the dangers for scientists who rush to judgment about a hypothesis based on wishful thinking". Wishful thinking? Does the author really believe the scientists is question actually want devastating hurricanes?

And then at the end of the article it says, "Editor's note: Support PJ Media so that we can keep telling the truth about the radical climate alarmists' agenda." It seems to me that it's the publication that has a biased agenda!
 
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migoga

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drstock said:
From the article: "The predictions and the reality of what's happening point to the dangers for scientists who rush to judgment about a hypothesis based on wishful thinking". Wishful thinking? Does the author really believe the scientists is question actually want devastating hurricanes?

And then at the end of the article it says, "Editor's note: Support PJ Media so that we can keep telling the truth about the radical climate alarmists' agenda." It seems to me that it's the publication that has a biased
Click to expand...
 
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migoga

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Sep 23, 2012
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Be a weather forecaster must be an awesome job. You get paid for guess work and you can write whatever you like without being held accountable
 
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chico bill

chico bill

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There are theories that the AMOC, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is ocean currents in the Atlantic to Caribbean and up the North American coast are reducing and changing the historical flows.
 
chico bill

chico bill

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slowmo said:
Good times watching experts guessing why they were so wrong with their earlier guesses.
Click to expand...
Well cross your fingers till mid-October that we don't see a major one.
But there is no doubt that this is the coolest summer I've spent in the Caribbean and I came in 1999.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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I live and work weather/ocean dependend since april 1995, wil have my 30th DR BD this coming April, exactly half of my then (sept 18th 2024) 60 years of age, lol.
It is so far the quietest season, at least i do not remember something less active by memory.
And on the other hand, a good one for me personally here on the lil Ranch, we get more frequent nice simple rainfalls than usual, often enough our summers here are drought periods driven, but this season is nice wet, all is growing perfectly fine and the solar water pump had to date very little work to do.
So far a summer as perfect as it could be by my own personal "weather needs" in DR.
As for the actual outlook/running weather conditions in the Basin:
TD6 is in the Gulf of Mexico and will not have any effects on DR.
AL92(Disturbance #1 on the NHC Charts) is a Low Pressure Area with some disturbed weather running mid highway, is not running in the most favorable environment, but it could become a TD closer to the weekend.
It's tracking should keep it safely NE of the Islands, no way it could enter the Caribbean, so at this point nothing to worry about, just to be watched.
Disturbance #2 on the NHC Charts is a few hundred miles behind #1, so it will Track much more Northwards and not come anywhere near danger distance to DR.
It's conditions ahead(WNW) are not that bad for some development, but there is wind shear and dry air involved, so it may become a TD mid week ahead,
BUT Not coming our way, so no worries about this one.
Over all, it looks perfectly fine for Us for the next days, most likely for the rest of this young week.
Nice rain came down on me here in Orange Valley as I typed, so Island Life for ex-fisherman is absolutely fine.
The Calfs and the new born Wild Pork Breed are growing beautiful, so now it is time for me to do a ride to Safacon City(Higuey) to load the Little Truck with food for the next weeks, their is some abundance after my 6 weeks absence.
Cheers from beautiful cloudy skies
 
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limeyi

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Aug 25, 2021
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MikeFisher said:
I live and work weather/ocean dependend since april 1995, wil have my 30th DR BD this coming April, exactly half of my then (sept 18th 2024) 60 years of age, lol.
It is so far the quietest season, at least i do not remember something less active by memory.
And on the other hand, a good one for me personally here on the lil Ranch, we get more frequent nice simple rainfalls than usual, often enough our summers here are drought periods driven, but this season is nice wet, all is growing perfectly fine and the solar water pump had to date very little work to do.
So far a summer as perfect as it could be by my own personal "weather needs" in DR.
As for the actual outlook/running weather conditions in the Basin:
TD6 is in the Gulf of Mexico and will not have any effects on DR.
AL92(Disturbance #1 on the NHC Charts) is a Low Pressure Area with some disturbed weather running mid highway, is not running in the most favorable environment, but it could become a TD closer to the weekend.
It's tracking should keep it safely NE of the Islands, no way it could enter the Caribbean, so at this point nothing to worry about, just to be watched.
Disturbance #2 on the NHC Charts is a few hundred miles behind #1, so it will Track much more Northwards and not come anywhere near danger distance to DR.
It's conditions ahead(WNW) are not that bad for some development, but there is wind shear and dry air involved, so it may become a TD mid week ahead,
BUT Not coming our way, so no worries about this one.
Over all, it looks perfectly fine for Us for the next days, most likely for the rest of this young week.
Nice rain came down on me here in Orange Valley as I typed, so Island Life for ex-fisherman is absolutely fine.
The Calfs and the new born Wild Pork Breed are growing beautiful, so now it is time for me to do a ride to Safacon City(Higuey) to load the Little Truck with food for the next weeks, their is some abundance after my 6 weeks absence.
Cheers from beautiful cloudy skies
Click to expand...
Hey Mike,
Thanks for your efforts over the years on reporting/ forecasting the “real” weather outlooks. I couldn’t agree more on an earlier comment on long range forecast, I can go with 48hrs max but tend to look at the radar for more accurate active weather possibly coming into my area that might impact my daily plans.
Keep up the great work for us heading down to the DR, very much appreciated and as an aside, yes, even the odd rains, while a nuisance for tourists, are definitely a boon to the island and the farmers we tourists rely on to give us the great produce we enjoy!
 
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chico bill

chico bill

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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www.mikefisher.fun
Just a short chime-in, as some may worry about the many dots and systems on the NHC Map.
There is ZERO to worry about for us Islanders for days to come.
The disturbances closely east of the Leewards will not develop into anything to worry about.
Francine is not near our Paradise Island.
the disturbed weather area off the SE of the USA will not be anything to worry about for DR.
TD7 has just a short window to develop, i would await to see a TS coming out of that one, but nothing more, conditions will not allow more and such TS will not bother DR.
So under the line, with so many funny colors shown,
We are all fine and we will stay exactly that.
 
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