we are just mid April,
but all around the bords including here on DR1 people start to 'discuss' the upcoming Hurricane Season 2010, so while by my own personal opinion it is not worth to check that far ahead due huge inaccurancies, i want to bring up some opinions and at the same moment we can keep this thread as our 2010 Stormy and Weather Watch information and discussion thread.
what pushed expats and locals and near future Island travellers to start posting about the far away 2010 hurricane season been simply the early pre season report/outlook from the CSU (Colorado State Univercity) which forecasts a clearly above average 2010 Hurricane Season.
first of all,
don't forget to read their textures comletely, they are well aware that their April predictions (published in April every year and relying on the fact conditions of our Highway during the month of March) are still a very early and unreliable thingy to concluse into details, it is an overall far ahead view on the whole area from western africa til the florida keys, from greenland down til Brazil.
what they are running as forecast models for 2010 is a newly invented system of data collecting which strated firstly for the 2008 forecast, and that 2008 forecast been very excat in april 2008. they repeated it for the 2009 season and the same formerly so great models failed very hard, because the 2009 season stayed way far below the april 2009 forecasts, 2009 been a slow/smooth season and in case of Punta Cana we had not even one day under the influence of any tropical storm or similar toys. 2010 is the 3rd year that system been used for the early in the year outlook on the upcoming season, so there's not much experience on the system and the success been top in 2008 and flop in 2009, means to be improved in the future.
such data collecting jobs and bringing the collected data together into forecasting models is a huge mathematical job, even Albert Einstein would sweat over such, and it requires time of many years to compare the data and understand the failures and to finally eliminate as many as possible of those failing inputs.
to not get misunderstood,
i do in no way try to miscredit the work/forecasts of the Colorado State Univercity, they are as a matter of fact the best source working on Hurricane forecast Data which we have on the planet, but we should not overreact on their early in the year now in april made pre season forecast, they say themselves that this forecast contains a large number of uncertanties and is still due missing years of experience with the system a very unreliable thingy, but it has to be done to learn from it's failures and to imporve it in the future seasons.
where they do since a long time a top job on is their Season opening prediction, this season 2010 it will be published June 2nd 2010, the predictions of the CSU beginning of June been since long a very accurate picture of what to expect and went very reliable during the last years.
toaday is April 12th 2010, so we have still 7 weeks and 2 days to wait til that will be done and out. til then no significant institutions are expected to make significant forecasts for the 2010 hurricane season. they all use the data collected by the CSU anyways.
in general, as the opposite to the tough predicted but finally softly passing and ending last season, for 2010 the effects of El Nino are looking unfavorable for the Atlantic. in general the forecasters use 3 different stages of the El Nino effect on the forming of tropical storms. El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.
El Nino is the strongest form and for us around the caribbean Sea a protecting shield, last year that condition hindered a good number of potential systems to form up/threaten/grow bigger etc. Neutral is the state when El Nino conditions have more or less no effects on what's coming and going. La Nina is the state when the El Nino favors Storm Systems to come up/grow/get stronger/mess around.
for 2010 the El Nino conditions til today look clearly in favor of the storms, the shift from El Nino towards La Nina will happen/finish around peak hurricane Season. such lead's to the conclusion that early season not much/nothing happens, but end september ahead a line up would be the result with the big boys running the highway. of course the El Nino influence is just one of countless factors/conditions influencing the rise of windy powers, but they are a mayor factor and if they come like actually awaited i expect the 2010 season to be very different to the calm and soft year 2009.
a mayor factor will be the Trade winds at all, at the moment expected weak, and that's bad for us and good for the windy-boys, because weak Trade Winds favor low windshears (the difference between upper level and lower level winds), and windshear is one of the main factors that hinders growing storms to grow up bigger/faster. we saw that last year on a good number of forming systems, they struggled for days even that they run over high Sea surface temperatures, warnings of highest dangers been outt for many areas throuout the Caribbean, but the existing systems could not raise powers due extremely high windshears and also due a good amount of present saharah sand feeding their dirty mouths.
so the sum of all provides in my opinion/interpretation, that we will get nothing during June, IF we get something late July it will not be big enough to bother our Paradise lifestyle for more than a couple days, august can be expected busy, specially after the 2nd week, but not specifically for the East of the Isle, mid september til end october the early of the year data suggerates heavy activities.
in case of reliability of such early in the year made "April predictions", i wrote it above, one year they are accurate and an other year they are just worth to go into the trash can.
let's wait for the June 2nd 2010 outlook.
and hey,
never forget the facts:
spots like on our northshore Luperon and on our East Coast Cabeza de Toro are atlantic and caribbean wide very well known so called Hurricane Holes, means the safest spots to spend june 1st -november 30th at any year for the area from the west-african coast til Key West/Fl and from Greenland til down to Tierra de Fuegos.
and in case i finally can experience an other one after so many quiet years i just hope the electrical power and then the batteries stay on as long as possible to gain as much data and details as possible.
cheers
Mike
but all around the bords including here on DR1 people start to 'discuss' the upcoming Hurricane Season 2010, so while by my own personal opinion it is not worth to check that far ahead due huge inaccurancies, i want to bring up some opinions and at the same moment we can keep this thread as our 2010 Stormy and Weather Watch information and discussion thread.
what pushed expats and locals and near future Island travellers to start posting about the far away 2010 hurricane season been simply the early pre season report/outlook from the CSU (Colorado State Univercity) which forecasts a clearly above average 2010 Hurricane Season.
first of all,
don't forget to read their textures comletely, they are well aware that their April predictions (published in April every year and relying on the fact conditions of our Highway during the month of March) are still a very early and unreliable thingy to concluse into details, it is an overall far ahead view on the whole area from western africa til the florida keys, from greenland down til Brazil.
what they are running as forecast models for 2010 is a newly invented system of data collecting which strated firstly for the 2008 forecast, and that 2008 forecast been very excat in april 2008. they repeated it for the 2009 season and the same formerly so great models failed very hard, because the 2009 season stayed way far below the april 2009 forecasts, 2009 been a slow/smooth season and in case of Punta Cana we had not even one day under the influence of any tropical storm or similar toys. 2010 is the 3rd year that system been used for the early in the year outlook on the upcoming season, so there's not much experience on the system and the success been top in 2008 and flop in 2009, means to be improved in the future.
such data collecting jobs and bringing the collected data together into forecasting models is a huge mathematical job, even Albert Einstein would sweat over such, and it requires time of many years to compare the data and understand the failures and to finally eliminate as many as possible of those failing inputs.
to not get misunderstood,
i do in no way try to miscredit the work/forecasts of the Colorado State Univercity, they are as a matter of fact the best source working on Hurricane forecast Data which we have on the planet, but we should not overreact on their early in the year now in april made pre season forecast, they say themselves that this forecast contains a large number of uncertanties and is still due missing years of experience with the system a very unreliable thingy, but it has to be done to learn from it's failures and to imporve it in the future seasons.
where they do since a long time a top job on is their Season opening prediction, this season 2010 it will be published June 2nd 2010, the predictions of the CSU beginning of June been since long a very accurate picture of what to expect and went very reliable during the last years.
toaday is April 12th 2010, so we have still 7 weeks and 2 days to wait til that will be done and out. til then no significant institutions are expected to make significant forecasts for the 2010 hurricane season. they all use the data collected by the CSU anyways.
in general, as the opposite to the tough predicted but finally softly passing and ending last season, for 2010 the effects of El Nino are looking unfavorable for the Atlantic. in general the forecasters use 3 different stages of the El Nino effect on the forming of tropical storms. El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.
El Nino is the strongest form and for us around the caribbean Sea a protecting shield, last year that condition hindered a good number of potential systems to form up/threaten/grow bigger etc. Neutral is the state when El Nino conditions have more or less no effects on what's coming and going. La Nina is the state when the El Nino favors Storm Systems to come up/grow/get stronger/mess around.
for 2010 the El Nino conditions til today look clearly in favor of the storms, the shift from El Nino towards La Nina will happen/finish around peak hurricane Season. such lead's to the conclusion that early season not much/nothing happens, but end september ahead a line up would be the result with the big boys running the highway. of course the El Nino influence is just one of countless factors/conditions influencing the rise of windy powers, but they are a mayor factor and if they come like actually awaited i expect the 2010 season to be very different to the calm and soft year 2009.
a mayor factor will be the Trade winds at all, at the moment expected weak, and that's bad for us and good for the windy-boys, because weak Trade Winds favor low windshears (the difference between upper level and lower level winds), and windshear is one of the main factors that hinders growing storms to grow up bigger/faster. we saw that last year on a good number of forming systems, they struggled for days even that they run over high Sea surface temperatures, warnings of highest dangers been outt for many areas throuout the Caribbean, but the existing systems could not raise powers due extremely high windshears and also due a good amount of present saharah sand feeding their dirty mouths.
so the sum of all provides in my opinion/interpretation, that we will get nothing during June, IF we get something late July it will not be big enough to bother our Paradise lifestyle for more than a couple days, august can be expected busy, specially after the 2nd week, but not specifically for the East of the Isle, mid september til end october the early of the year data suggerates heavy activities.
in case of reliability of such early in the year made "April predictions", i wrote it above, one year they are accurate and an other year they are just worth to go into the trash can.
let's wait for the June 2nd 2010 outlook.
and hey,
never forget the facts:
spots like on our northshore Luperon and on our East Coast Cabeza de Toro are atlantic and caribbean wide very well known so called Hurricane Holes, means the safest spots to spend june 1st -november 30th at any year for the area from the west-african coast til Key West/Fl and from Greenland til down to Tierra de Fuegos.
and in case i finally can experience an other one after so many quiet years i just hope the electrical power and then the batteries stay on as long as possible to gain as much data and details as possible.
cheers
Mike