Hurricane Season 2011

[donP]

Rapid Development

Invest 97 skipped the stage of TD and became TS Irene.
The storm is forecast to pass through the south of the DR as a H1 on Monday.
Unfortunately the highest winds and heaviest water loads are said to occur in the northern and eastern sectors of the system.

donP

 

[MikeFisher]

Yes, that's sorrily all correct and nothing of it in Our Favor, but all for the Storm.

in just a few hours while we had a Poolside BBQ for dinner this Eve, 97L been declared a TD and made it right away to Tropical Storm Irene.
the Storm is several Times stronger than Emily on a similar Track had been, much better organized far ahead of arrival near Hispaniola, and hopefully it will not take a Timeout as Emily and stand still without forward Movement, because such Storm slowing down near Our Southshores would be of course a Huge Desaster Rainwise.
the first upper Level Outflow can be seen on the Sat Loops, so it def is building up little by little a Eyewall, by Monday morning it will have a Eyewall and under the then very favorable conditions Gain Powers very quick.
it is running all that development til now under very Not Favorable Conditions, so Imagine it's development Speed when those Conditions will be very favorable by early Monday.
TS Irene is running actually extremely fast Forward, on almost 20 Knots/22-24mphr, it will arrive quicker than we can finish the morning Coffee on the Eastern Islands.
Radar shows the first heavy Rains approaching from the East to St Croix right now.
Irene is not a little Emily to bother with some sprinkling,
She is a large Bad Girl and She will grow up a lot the next 48hrs.
each hour of growing up will bring her more under the influence of the Steering Winds which will move Her towards the NW, the Moment she starts that Movement is the Vital Point for the People living on Her Track.
Punta Cana as a straight Hit is not very likely but still within the Cone of Certainty, the Center of Our Southshores ranges with quiet good Chances within the Cone, Southern Haiti or SE Cuba are the Ones I give the Highest Chances for a straight Hit.
where ever she will walk over, she will be bad and she will not die due the touch of the high Mountains, not even if she walks right over Hispaniola's highest Mountain Range, Irene is def a Treat futhermore for the US somewhere between Southern Florida and Northern South Carolina for a Hit above TRopical Storm Force.
the Gulf of Mexico as a Destin instead is not out of the Game of Possibilities, but less likely by the actual Movement and Conditions.
let's get ready just in case,
as Irene can easily be a Hurricane still on the Move to grow further by Monday.

Mike

 

[Hlywud]

As Mike says

This could be a bad lady

Predicted path

 

[Hillbilly]

Once again, the DR1 Weather Teams have nailed this one. Good work Mike, A week ago we were talking about some traffic on the Highway, and you correctly identified this big truck!!

I just hope my grandson and daughter can make their 2 a.m. flight tonight/tomorrow morning!!! Might be close...

HB

 

[donP]

Getting Worse?

I fear that the energy of the present high forward speed will be used by IRENE to strengthen her circulation and she will slow down. The stronger whirl may then result in a more northern path...
It does not look good.

donP

 

[Olly]

DonP
I tend to agree with you that it may take a more northerly route. Like a spinning top climbing up the ladder of the islands then going westwards. I think the north coast may get more than it thinks.

And DonP – take care!
OLLY

 

[donP]

18N and Up

The computer models see a less northerly path after the storm centre passes Guadeloupe, because of a ridge in the N which could force the system to stay on a westerly course.
However, the strengthening of the whirl could compensate this and thus coninue on track NW.
If one tries to determine an approximate centre of the system at this time one would most likely have it near 18 degrees N, so the present forecast track in the south of the DR is unlikely IMO.

Whatever, in the afternoon we shall put up the storm panels and roll up the carpets... aranoid:

donP

 

[MikeFisher]

the weathersites show Irene still as wandering straight West, that is completely wrong, she is tracking WNW since many long hours and it is very easy to see that Move:
look on the Center's Position, She is actually on almost 17"N, much more North than last evening when she wandered on the 15th"N.
as a comparison to what it means how close it is:
my House in Cabeza de Toro is located on 18"38'N,
so we can be assured that Irene is wandering WNW and we can be sure that the Center will pass very close to Our Position if not straight over our Position.
she is still on very fast forwardspedd of 18Knots, let's hope she will not slow down tonight.
heaviest Thunderstorms and Rainloads are located to the North of the Storm, She is pointing towards Us with Her Mess.
by the Powers She is just on 50-55mphr, nothing of a Windspeed which would be danerous for the Eastshores here, but I don't like to think about the Powers when She slows down over the Channel or close South to the Mona Channel.
Wind out of the NE is on here in Punta Cana since many hours, Rain is actually coming in from the NE over the Virgins and portions of Puerto Rico, I do not await it to go down during the next 36horus.
Irene will bring for the Eastern Islands and Puerto Rico a heck of Rain starting later today, no doubt that there will be a lot of that Rain left for Hispaniola, this Time Punta Cana is Not located North of the Storm as we had been during Emily.
and Emily been a very small Toy compared to Irene.

it will be interesting when NOAA will show the real actual Direction, the forecasted Tracking Lines will not change towards the South by then.
let's be ready Today around the Isle, it does nt matter on which Side of Hispaniola You live, Irene is a Treat and dangerous for the whole Island.

at this Moment my Boys are preparing the Gladiator, in around 90 Minutes we will do the Wavy Run to Our Safespot to spend 2 Nights at the Docks of the Cap Cana Marina, that means the Fisherman is bringing the Cattle in, so should You do, too.

I will watch it permanently, by Sat and by Boat Radar, will bring an Update always when something changes.
for Now we have to await a hard Breeze and heaviest Rainfalls.

Mike

 

[donP]

This is IRENE about an hour ago.

donP

 

[donP]

IRENE going North

Allright, NHC obviously now believe what they see... :cheeky:
Their 11 a.m. track forecast shows an H1 directly moving across the DR on a NW path.
Yet I still believe this track will be moved more to the N as time progresses.

donP

 

[MikeFisher]

the Hurricane Center revised their Heading shown this morning, now they also show Irene on a WNW'ern Tracking, and as I said before She def is on exactly that Tracking since very long hours.
the Center is located on exactly 17"N and due Heading of course continuously Climbing.
She will walk very close to or Over the SW of Puerto Rico/SE of Hispaniola, at least the Center will be VERY Close to those 2 Points on the Southern Mona Channel.
Puerto Rico will get the Full Rainload (located North of the Center) for sure, I don't see a way that We could avoid that here on the Eastshores of the DR.
Wind here on the East is a constant Breeze from the NE on 18Knots, gusting just a couple of Miles Offshore 22Knots, Ocean is a rough Mess and Rising.
the Gladiator is on Her Way from Cabeza de Toro to Cap Cana right now and there is no Fun on Board, even that it still not have started.
the Northern Portions of Irene can already be followed up/seen on the Puerto Rican Radar on
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

in around 30 Minutes I will know how the Waters in front of Cabo Enga?o are, a typical Corner where the Currents Hit on all they got, our roughest Waterportion out there.
since this morning and most likely til Tuesday morning we are and will stay under the Influence of Tropical Storm Irene, during this afternoon we will see if the Surface Pressure in the Center drops and the Storm slows down to convert into a Hurricane or not.
if You haven't already been, go shopping Now.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

no pressure drop in the Center so far, but the overall forward movement is slowing down by the hour.

Mike

 

[Hlywud]

rough ride for the guys on the Gladiator, I can imagine.

Keep up the good Mike

 

[robbie]

Great reporting Mike

 

[luzcace]

where is Mike? I guess he is bringing his boats to a safe place........

 

[MikeFisher]

thanks to Claro Internet I see now that my last updates did not show up anywhere,
so let's try to bring the notice togeteher now, even that some been old of course, as the last hours changed a lot.
the Boat made it to Cap Cana in just 40 Minutes, winds at Cabo Engano topped in gusts on 23Knots, Sea topped on 10ft with higher swells, but we did not waste time to check out any other topping possibilities, I just Love my lil Baby Gladiator, that Blackfin is just a 29ft'er Flybridge Blackfin, but it navegates better than the much bigger Vessels I have around here.
the Gladiator is now of course secured at it's Oier #8 at Cap Cana Marina, for the first time in 16 years we even took off the Outriggers just in case and stored them in the Subterrain Parking Area of the Building on the floor, we await a worst case scenario of 80mphr winds late tonight or before Noon tomorrow.
don't panic,
a worst case scenario to await means for a Fisherman what we prepare for, what can happen without doing any damage to the Boat or House or to my Beerfridge, it does NOT mean it will happen.
you plan for more to take and finally you get less to be Hit by means you will just stay very fine.
now we are waiting for the Mrs's famous chicken to be ready in the Oven, the beers are cold and then we will spend the night on the Boat of course.
my internet typically Claro when You Need them is
""Claro lo tienes Menos"", lol.
we are online here at home and also on Board, if you don't hear anything from me does not mean the weather would be that bad, it's just our world famous and expensive BS Service of Claro which doesn't allow to stay i touch with the world.

as I wrote a while ago,
Irene is BAD, doesn't matter you see it as a TS or a low level Hurricane, doesn't matter, as the danger is the water and the high winds IF they appear would not make a difference, the danger is the water and that water is very close, right in front of the homedoor.
do some Homecooking and be nice to your Ole Lady, tomorrow's Dinner will be something else, maybe the Lady will take Us out to Town for that one, he he.

Mike

 

[Acira]

Thanks Mike and stay safe!

 

[frank recktenwald]

Tropical Storm Irene : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground

 

[MaineGirl]

No school for the kiddies at PUNTACANA International School; teachers are expected to arrive barring heavy winds. First day of school basically is cancelled!

 

[Dolores1]

All the forecaster tracks, with the exception of UKMet that was right about the previous Emily no show, share the same NWN route moving through the DR, with areas such as the east and northeast getting the right hit. Will this be historically only the second hurricane to affect the north coast in as many years as one can remember? UKMet forecast has the storm primarily affecting the southern coast of the country. The UK Met (UKMO GM) explanation is that stronger ridging will keep the storm in the Caribbean. Tropical Weather... Done Better!™

Whatever, time is to be prepared for a real storm, as early in the year as I can remember. The earliest hurricane to hit the DR in the past 100 years was David, that hit on 31 August. For hurricane background, see DR1 - Hurricanes