Hurricane Season 2011

MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Frank,
forget about htose Maps trying to shw a scenario over all, but not specific for smaler Araes.
here is My Take for my Backyard for tonight amd tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Irene, actually running on 17.9"N, is on the Full Turn because she is reaching high up into the Atmosphere and due that she will be steered by our High Level Winds, Tracking the NW.
She will Not hit any Siuthshore of Hispaniola,
the Gal will just walk over or even pass nearby North of Punta Cana and run Her Track from there.
Why I am happy about the close proximity of such dangerouse Storm to my Homedoor?
that's easy,
as the Thunderstorms and heavy Rains of the Storm Irene are located on it's North, so that close to Us with it's Center means we stay in the low Range (below 35mphr) wind Area and the Rain to expect is not more than a average Jan or Feb weekend would provide Us with.
hence we are still dry today,
Yes, that close to a bad big Storm and we are DRy, still.
the possibilities that it will be a Hurricane by tomorrow morning stay High, but that doesn't matter, as the lil different of a 15mphr winds more or less make really Zero difference on the effects for a specific Area, it just depends where the heaviest rains fall down and where the heaviest/peaking Thunderstorms will pass, and I say they will pass North of Punta Cana, they may not even touch anything o the NE'ern Coast, maybe Samana will feel some hefties for a couple hours.
windwise and coudwise this late afternoon passed here like a usual/very possible simple January/early February Day of any Year without any Storm nearby.
let it close i to Us o the East and the rest will stay even calmer.

here we are, we stay standing, we will watch Your Azz after You passed Us.

it's beautiful to be so close, I hope we stay close enough to feel the Pressure dropping, as I always enjoyed that Feeling, no complaint to the Ole Lady home, but it def is better than anything else, lol.
it will pass the Eastshores of DR towards the NW,
the heavy part will stay more North of the Path.
that's just My personal Outlook, no doubt we will sleep on the Boat Tonight just in case,
but I think it will pass Us smoothly with a messed up Ocean tomorrow and back on preparations for fishing on Tuesday.
the next sheduled Charter on Wednesday morning will run on beautiful calm Waters.

the updates between 10PM and 2AM tonight are the ones to get sure on what will be for breakfast, on a big Storm as Irene on the Turn there is no way to plan further in advance.

stay Dry

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
absolutely My speech also, Dolores.
the effects on the DR Southcoast are secondary, as it is already located with it's Center over/above 17"North, and in addition to the Centers Location all the heavy thunderstorms and rains are also located North of the Center, there's nothing significant into the Game for the Southshores.
the NE and the N of Hispaniola have to be ready by the actual Movements.

Hey,
even that I thought different 24hrs ago, but now I would say that even Cape Canaveral will stay Dry, lol.

we are watching a Storm on the Turn/Move,
where ever it may be, Irene is Big and Bad, She will be a dangerous Storm.

Mike
 
R

Ringo

On Vacation!
Mar 6, 2003
2,823
41
0
Dolores said:
All the forecaster tracks, with the exception of UKMet that was right about the previous Emily no show, share the same NWN route moving through the DR, with areas such as the east and northeast getting the right hit. Will this be historically only the second hurricane to affect the north coast in as many years as one can remember? UKMet forecast has the storm primarily affecting the southern coast of the country. The UK Met (UKMO GM) explanation is that stronger ridging will keep the storm in the Caribbean. Tropical Weather... Done Better!™

Whatever, time is to be prepared for a real storm, as early in the year as I can remember. The earliest hurricane to hit the DR in the past 100 years was David, that hit on 31 August. For hurricane background, see DR1 - Hurricanes
Click to expand...

Thanks Dolores and as usual to Mike.

I keep waiting for this storm to move west or a big turn to the north. That's what has always happened in the past. As Dolores states and I agree, the North Coast has maybe only ONE hurricane that has hit it. The mountains of our island and the change of water temps. have always been a factor that moved storms away from the north coast. Perhaps this girl is a little different.

If I see that she is still on track in the AM and aiming to hit my area then I will go into hurricane mode. I have my plan and I have my materials to shutter up. IF she comes along, my pools will be filled with deck and patio furniture. They need a little cleaning anyway.

She is being a little different!
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
fu%^344 Internet here tonight.
here's my 3rd attempt to post this one.

the Northshores are almost out of the danger zone, as the Storm is now located on 18"N and wandering towards NW, with it's Thunderstorms and Rains on it's Northern portion, so that's History for Punta Cana and will stay even further away from the DR Northshore.

if and how much of rain or wind we will get later tonight here I don't know, but I see that Irene is moving to NW.
it will cross Puerto Rico from SE to the NW.
it's heavy thunderstorms and rains will stay Northeast of Us.
the Ocean here on the East is a dangerous Mess, but anyways there is nobody out there to Fish, so a no show.

Irene runs a full NW Tracking,
He Surface Presuure is dropping significantly,
Her sustained Max Winds grew by 20-25% during the last few hours,
She is a big Bad Girl growing up quickly, she is intensifying fast and should reach Hurricane Force winds before Sunrise, still growing then.
as far as the DR East goes I see her as close as a Storm can get without beeing named a full Hit, and that's all, she will not do us any harm.
is this a downwarning from the Fisherman?
NO!!!
def NOT.
we never know what will change on a Storm or it's direction in an hour or two or 3 or till we wake up in the morning, so we have to watch it at least til tomorrow/monday Noon.
but from my personal outlook at this moment it will wander over PR and some winds of maybe 20Knots for a short Time period will be the Max for the Eastshores here, it may even stay completely dry in some Araes.
watch the approaching Rain on the PR Radar I posted above as a link.
my own Internet is sorrily a mess today, thanks to Claro "Que tienes Menos",
it took me til now 40 minutes to get those few lines done and hopefully they will show up, tired of the error messages when pressing "Post".

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the next flight of the Hunters is sheduled for in a good 2 hrs from now, planned to be in the Storm by 11:20PM tonight, so we should get more Data updated before midnight.
til then,
watch your back and keep da Keybord Dry

Mike
 
W

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
30,246
4,332
113
Mike.........You saying Samana and Cabrera will squeak out of this ?
Weather.com was specifying Cabo Frances as a target.... I was told.

False alarm... circumstances changed ??
 
CG

CG

Bronze
Sep 16, 2004
1,033
185
63
Downgraded !.
At least for the moment, guess we really have to wait till daylight to see what that gives.
Although, I still think were going to get whacked a-bit out here on the peninsula tomorrow.
Be safe everybody !
 
Last edited:
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Downgraded???
No Freakin' way my Friend, there is no downgrade and that Storm has no intendion to slow down any powers for the next 24 hours and maybe many more.
Surface Pressure in the Center of Irene is still dropping,
the Girl is doing a nice job to grow up and shows very clear Upper Level Outflow since many hours,
She will be named a Hurricane any moment tonight and She deserves the Title.
as for Her Tracking, She is turning even further towards North, running the last couple hours on NW,
and YES!,
that's good for Us as She may even Miss Puerto Rico on the NE'ern side.
She moves up there and will not bring us more than very nasty winds and Rains tonight, here in Cabeza de Toro the first sweep is on since 10 minutes.
I say she will miss Us, bad Pointer Baby, go Your Way and leave Us on Our Way.
in 2 hours we will get a Nighttime update, if my today very bad Internet allows it I will of course post my opinion on it.
rain is hard here right now and windgusts are, too, but nothing of danger in Vicinity so far, and I am on the EAST.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
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