Hurricane Season 2011

[Olly]

Mike , I dont think you should take your eye off this one. As she weakens she is more suseptable to the winds from the ridge and may continue west.
Just like Irene surprise you and was suddenly a TS - this one could do the same

OLLY - there are more than one ollies in the team!!

 

[MikeFisher]

We sure will not take our Eyes away from any System, weak or small, wandering in our Vicinity, doesn't matter what Forecasts and Forecast Models predict for the next days or week, we always take care about ourselves on such and do not trust any News on TV, I anyways do not watch TV, lol.

Yes,
theoretically She could stay weak and wander with the E-W Winds straight over Us, or take a Path as Irene did coming straight towards Us and due Intensification close to Her approach get's steered NW to pass up close, and darn Irene messed with our weather for a week.
but that's theories about a weakening Storm still 4 Days away from any closing in to the Islands,
so there's not much more to report about than the Storms actual Poistions and Powers and Trackings, as they are all Longshots with High uncertainty we will never get the full picture more than 2 Days ahead of arrival, which is anyways a good amount of forewarning Time to get da Cattle in.
late Friday we may get a better picture, Saturday Eve we should see a clear picture.
for the next 48 hrs Katia is not a Big Deal due still a far away distance, for the next 24hrs just a Object to watch.
Her S and W is badly Hurt and Her E also shows a downward Trend, the Center fights and the North is still quiet active.
the Dark Lines seen on the Sat Shots near Her Center indicate that quiet a large amount of Dry Air been injected and shutted down Thunderstorm activity there, something even a well organized System does not recompensate withn just a few hours, she will need Time to come back, during that Time She will come Closer or luckily even will have Us passed.
some Rains from a strong TS on the Rise are much better to take than the Rains from a weak TS on the Way Downhill which been a Hurricane 24hrs before, as the Downhill running System will still be very large in Size and push a heavy Storm Surge(as seen on Irene, small Hit but a heck of Water and Waves over a wide Area), while a Rising/growing Up/Intensifying TS will still be small in Size and still not push a deadly Storm Surge ahead. a Rising TS would have it's Thunderstorm activity more concentrated and hitting more Powerful at some isolated Areas, but simple TS Storm Winds are heer on the Eastshores of the DR anyways no Concern, we would not even bring the Boats out of the Area for such.
the Danger is wide/Large heavy Rainload Areas of Storms which are or been shortly before arrival a wide Hurricane, as they are a Waterload Danger for the Island at All with many Danger Areas vulnerable to Floodings and Mudslides.
Wind is not the Problem in the TS/Cat1 Categories,
wide spread out slow moving heavy Rainfalls are the deadly Force for the Isle.

til now such is not in the Make nor on it's way over here,
so we just relax and Observe for some Days and look forward to a sunfilled calm weekend on the East.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Katia's Center and North stay active with strong Thunderstorm activity.
the South and West are still cut down, but the West already started to moisture the Environment again, so with Time She should get organized again on all Sides, but far below the a few days ago expected Powers and Size.

Katia is already on the 17th"N and tracking clearly on a Northwards drift, WNW,
which will let Her pass the Islands nice far on Our NE.
She is hurt badly from the High Windshear which injected Dry Air into Her Center Yesterday, the recover process will take Time even that she managed to keep Her 70mphr Windforce which is jyst a few mphr below the Cat1 Hurricane Strength, Her Central pressure rised significantly.
I would say She needs around 48 hrs to be back well organized on Hurricane strength, let's say early Sunday morning as the earliest.
as the Storm is still hurt the forecasts of it's Powers/Development for the next Days are highly uncertain, You can't really estimate a Storm's Power Development before it has started to grow up again.

as far as Katia's long Range Tracking goes I would take the Canadian Atlantic Coast out of the List of possible Destinations for a Landfall, even that Canada had during the last couple Days the Highest Chances of all Land to get a Visit.
I would also give New England very low/near Zero Chances, maybe a 15% for the mid Atlantic Coast.
as Katia will come much weaker than expected She should not go NW or even straight North any soon, I believe She never will go straight North, so even Bermuda should be in a couple Days out of the possibilities to touch Her Center.
a weak Hurricane Katia will IMHO wander far North out on Sea along of the Greater Antilles Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and even pass the North of the SW'ern Bahamas.
If She still will have significant Powers by then or may get stronger than now expected is impossible to Guess on, it is too far away from today. She may Die up there before touching the NE'ern Bahamas, before bringing Rain to the SE Shores of the USA.

Katia of course needs to be watched, but Day by Day, as Her actual Condition does not indicate If She will grow up a lot and fast or become just a weak Cat1 which may Die 3-4 Days later far North of the Islands.

I don't think we will get any Hurricane Hunter Flights to Katia any soon, as the sorrily small available Resources from NOAA's flying Forces is actually busy with the Invests of Tropical Depression#13 located near the South of the Central Gulf Coast, a extremely large System, they still try to identify a real Center of that unorganized System which already contains near Tropical Storm Force Winds. due it's shear Size I do not give it big chances to develop i any strong Windforce above of TS Force Winds, it is near Stationary/no real Movement/Direction visible, but it will bring heavy Rainloads over a very wide Area around the Central and Eastern Gulfcoast. I guess the extremely Dry Texas could need some of the Waterload from there, maybe they get lucky on that, but it looks more likely to heavily Rain(above 10 inches) from Lousiana Eastwards over Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and most of Florida itself.

the strong Disturbance named Invest 94L is located just around 300 miles South of Halifax/Nova Scotia,
not very well organized it hides quiet some dangers, as it already contains Tropical Storm Windforces since last Night even not showing any Surface circulation/organization to even be named Tropical Depression#14.
due it's High Windforces I would await the it will be declared a TD#14 during Today and if it does not go Downwards or Change Directions TS Warnings could be issued for Nova Scotia tomorrow ahead.
it should not become a big Deal for that Area which is quiet used to tough strong Windforces, eventhat they mostly are not named Tropical, but that Area should not get any trouble from simple Tropical Storm Forces.

as for the other Side of our lately very active Highway the wide Area around the Cape Verde Islands is well moistured, but at this Time no interaction with any Surface Low Pressure to Spot from here.

I should be back online late afternoon for an other Eyecontact with Katia, we are really not in any hurry due actually No Danger for our Isle.

actual weather today here on the East is an other stunning perfect sunny Beach weather Day.
wind is down to zero,
the Gladiator is fishing Dorados/Mahi on Flat offshore Sea, and Man are the Biests hungry still after the Storm Irene messed with their Feeding Grounds.

enjoy a long and Sunny weekend

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Hurricane Center 11AM Update:

as prior mentioned the windforce of bothereed Katia stayed all the Time on the Edge between strong TS and weak Cat1.
now Katia is shown again as a weak Cat1 Hurricane with 75mphr Winds,
She already reached 17.5"N, means She is on a for Us nice Tracking WNW'wards to stay on Distance from our Sweet Sunny Isle.

Time to Hit the Road again for the Marina

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

no much changes on Katia since this morning other than she is moving even more towards the Northern Directions, on a NW Tracking on the 5PM Updates, that will bring Her even further away from the Islands, that is also at the same Time more danger for the further Path once the awaited upper level steering winds will push Her towards the West, as Katia will now pass us so far North that she will not touch the waters cooled down by the Hurricane Irene, Katia will stay over pure Hote Waters not stirred up by Irene, so once she overcomes Her injuries of the injected dry Air in an other couple Days she has good chances to intensify much quicker than the til now shown development.
but Katia is still almost impossible to forecast on long Range, as the Models for the Forecasts of the steering Winds differ heaviliest about the Timing of appearance and strengths of those Steering Patterns, which depend on development far away from our Soil to effect the Storm when approaching/coming closer to the US Eastshores.
Katia has to be watched from day to day, long range outlooks are much too uncertain to get a real Idea of that Lady.

as for Us over here, She will not be a threat, most likely not even bother with a cloud or such, and that's the Good Part.

actual wather on the Eastshores of the DR,
we had an other perfectly calm and pure sunny Beachday, Zero Winds, inshore and offshore Sea is a Flat Plate and should stay so for the whole weekend at least.

IF Katia bothers any Land such would not happen the next 3-4 days or even more, as she will not come close to any of our Caribbean Islands, highest possibilities for such touch would be given for the Bahams or for the US Atlantic Coast but no reliable long range forecast can be done for that by now.
at least for the upcoming weekend she can only be seen from day to day and during that Timeperiod she will not be near any Land, so no Hurry on the Babe.

Mike

 

[Vinyasa]

we had an other perfectly calm and pure sunny Beachday, Zero Winds, inshore and offshore Sea is a Flat Plate and should stay so for the whole weekend at least.

Mike

Not necessarily a good thing .....a kitesurfer.
Bring on the strong winds!

 

[MikeFisher]

Not necessarily a good thing .....a kitesurfer.
Bring on the strong winds!

ha ha ha
Spring and summer are here on the Eastshores mostly much too calm for a Kite Fun Day.
here the Kites stay stored away to be used in wintertime, mostly starting late November, December, January and February we have the stronger winds from the NE'ern Sides in combination with some nice wave action.
myself I never tried the Kite, yet, I still stick to the Surfbord for which we have more often godd conditions around, specially for Surfing through the Reefs during Tidal Changes aside the Passage Cabeza de Toro.

wish ya a Breeze good enough for Your Kite and still comfy for my Fishing Boats.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

no news on Katia.
the dry air injected by high windshear and the same still present windshear itself do not destroy Katia but hinder a quick intensification, so She should not gain significant powers during today and most of Sunday.
she is already on the 20th"N, which is considered for the DR Eastshores the Minimum Northern Mark to be safe that a Storm's Center coming from the SE will not hit us with it's Center, as it is walking/Heading NW.
and she is still on a straight NW Tracking.
Her SW did not recover much, yet.
a difference compared to last night's Updates is the Fact that now on the 11AM update the Forecast Models are on agreement about the Windshear to move out of Katia's Vicinity/Influence Range during tomorrow/Sunday, so from then on Katia over Hot Waters and without the bothering High Windshear can be expected to gain some significant Powers, before Monday Noon she should be a Cat2 on the further Rising, but that prognostic depends completely on the Model agreement that the windshear will kick down during tomorrow, otherwise Katia would stick to Her actual Storm Misery, ll.

Zero Danger so far for Our Sunny Isle, She will pass Us well on the NE and will be only on the same weak Cat1 Power which She shows right now when She will be on Her closest approach on our NE.

still the same uncertain/impossible to predict is the further Path for Katia from Monday ahead, as it mostly depends on the outcome of the Storm over JAPAN(I am not Drunk notr did I go more Nuts than I am anyways, lol, I meant JAPAN) which will on it's further Path start a Domioe effect on the Conditions in the mid and High Atmosphere rolling from the NW of the Northamerican Continent towards the SE of the USA, and exactly such Trough arriving over the SE'ern USA is the Weather which will Turn/Recurve Katia, the stronger it arrives the less any danger for the Coast there, the weaker or later it arives the more chances for the Eastshores of the US to get the next Hit later in the next week.
in shorter words,
actually nobody can tell where Katia will go to once She passed the Islands, She may never do any Landfall anywhere, She also could Hit any Soil from Florida til up to New Foundland, it all depends on the Trough and Turn late next week.

for early after the weekend She should get a more Western Drift and run W-WNW along Our North, far out out of the danger Zone, towards the Bahamas, but during the long Way to there the Trough is expected to set in, and that's the inpredictable uncertainty on Katia's long range tracking Outlook.

the Islands are fine,
weather is today the total Enemy of all Kite-Freaks, Fishermen's Best Friend.
the Gladiator I see tied up a few minutes ago at the Dock, they have at least a Dozen Dorados aboard from this morning,
so Life is just Good in the Caribbean.

cheers

Mike

 

[Hlywud]

no news on Katia.

the Islands are fine,
weather is today the total Enemy of all Kite-Freaks, Fishermen's Best Friend.
the Gladiator I see tied up a few minutes ago at the Dock, they have at least a Dozen Dorados aboard from this morning,
so Life is just Good in the Caribbean.

cheers

Mike

Only a dozen, life is a beach, now get them cleaned and setup the grill

and get a few greenies cold
"Heathers say Hi to Tania"

 

[MikeFisher]

the final count been 14,
and the Grill is ready to rumble as we have a Pool BBQ for a B-Day today, so they came right on Time.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

noe of the 14 Dorados survived the afternoon, so didn't Hurricane Katia neither.
she is again down on 70mphr, a TS,
but we do not let Her fool us, as she been all the Time on the Border to be just a strong TS or a weak Cat1, no fifference more than 3-4 mphr of max windspeed measured, it is all the same.
looks like She wandered for some hours on a more Westerly tracking while I;ve been out of the House, running WNW now still on the 20th"N.
Her intensification depends actually all on the Moment Her hard Windshear goes away, still all Models forecast unitedly that exactly such will happen tomorrow, so she should be a Hurricane again tomorrow and then get some further Powers.
the Tracking on long Range stays a Gamble, the actual WNW is fine with Us as it let's Her miss the Island by far.

Tropical Sroem Lee in the Gulf of Mexico looks dangerous, not for increasing, but He had been most of the Day Stationary right over the |Central Gulf Shores, and even now is moving only with maybe 3Knots of Speed NNW, dumping down heavy rains and will continue with that Game for a while.
some Areas who had been under record Drought Conditions will switch over Night into heaviliest flooding Conditions, such causes a lot of damage.

nothing bad in Vicinity from our East, Skies are clear, wind is Zero, Ocean is a flat Plate,
so some more Mahis and maybe one or an other White Marlin it will be tomorrow morning for an other stunning Sunny Day out on the Water.

cheers

Mike

 

[bri777]

TS Lee missed us also
its so dry here all grass looks like hay ,cant let my dogs walk on the side walk
they will burn their paws lol
the heat is obnoxious ,its too hot even for skeeters
paint is blistering on the cars
all we got today was a very hot breeze
galveston water had to be 98,not sure but it felt like bathwater

my cup of ice melted to water within 15 min
I think tomorrow I will make bacon and eggs on the hood of my truck
I am melting here lol
Manu

 

[MikeFisher]

yeah, the extreme's of mother Nature aren't much Fun usually.
Hot or Clod, Dry or Flooded, none is good.

Katia shows no surprises on the 7AM Update,
back on weak Cat1 Hurricane strength with 75mphr,
she is walking on 21.5"N, the Path that leads Her around Us in a nice Distance,
Tracking is straight NW.

here on the East we are hot and sunny since Sunrise,
Zero Breeze,
the Ocean looks like some Frozen thingy, Ice for Skating or such, as there will not be any Wave found between Here and Puerto Rico, a Flat Plate.
there is nothing in Vicinity to bother our perfect Sunday Beach Weather.

hit da Beach and enjoy it

Mike

 

[Hillbilly]

Strange beastie this Katia Her pressure has dropped 22mB since last night, she is now a Cat 2 hurricane, but quite small in size.

I get the feeling that we will get some winds, rains and waves off the East, Northeast and maybe North coasts, but nothing major.

HB, not a forecaster

 

[MikeFisher]

yeah HB,
B$tchy Katia can from now on be named Lady Katia, as she overcame the bothering of minor powers such as Windshear and Dry Air, She is ruling from now on Her terrain alone and no Enemy Army in Her opposition in sight.
She is a Cat2, Windgusts are already exceeding even 125mphr, Her Central Pressure dropped very significantl;y and will go on to do so.
She is on a well prepared Road of intensification, small i Size but growing when she walks further away from the Equator/Northwards, even not on a perfect Round/Circle Formation(which will be shown soon) She has a well defined and closed Eyewall and will grow Up on Her further Path.

effects for our Island should not be significant, for the East shore even just Minor or nothing.

still no long Range forecasts possible for the Gal, as all depends on far away but forecasted Developments of systems such as the TS from Days ag around Japan and Tropical Storm Lee over Southern Louisiana, the out come of Their Forces will decide IF and When and How Strong a Trough will move dow over the SE USA to recurve Katia North towards Canada or even out on Open Sea.
without a Trough or such occurance showing up too late or too weak Katia is on Her way to the US Eastshores and could by all present uncertainties hit anywhere between Disneyworld and New Foundland.

Katia will be a strong Storm, even after many days of knockdowns and hitbacks, She would have been a Superstorm if the bothering windshear would have taken effects 10-15 hrs later.

Katia will not be any danger for OUR Island, some waves and winds would be a Max by actual standings,
but by mid week ahead I guess the Northern Brothers should start to spend some resources on Flights from the Hunters as it will be by then most likely within the certainties of becoming a serious threat for US Soil.

as for the Now Effects,
the Bahamas should get the first high Surf by Katia early tonight and continuing for many days,
the SE Shores of the USA will feel it starting tomorrow/monday morning ahead,
Her Surf will bounce the Shores quiet well from Northern Florida til up to New England for several Days and once started harder by each day.
Katia is moving slowly while groeing up quickly, so once Her effects start to be felt such will grow by the hour for several days ahead.

as for the actual weather on the DR Eastshores,
we had a perfect stunning Sunshine week, a completely dead calm weekend, too, and we should have some more days of similar conditions ahead of Us.

Radar to our East is clear.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

btw,
thanks God we brought the 14 Mahis from yesterday on the Grill right away to have space in the Freezers available,
as the Gladiator brought an other 24 Mahis from this morning's 4 hrs Ride.

Life is Good

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

no News on Hurricane Katia tonight, as She walks and grows as expected.

She is on the edge to be a Mayor Hurricane/Cat3 very soon, wandering on 10-2Knots towards the NW.
She stays on a very nice and undangerous Distance to our Sunny Isle.

at the Moment we have nothing bothering/Bad out there on our East in the Range for the next 3-5 Days,
so sweet Islandlife will go on to be on the calm sunny side of Life.

last Night a large Tropical Wave approached Atlantic Waters from the Westafrican Coast SE of the Cape Verde Islands and that quiet very wide Area of Moisture is on collision Course with a Surface Pressure Low mid/east-Highway,
from that I actually expect to see late in the week the next Highway Invest/Formation coming to Life,
as long as there will not pop up a lil Tropical Storm closer to the Islands surprisingly quickly, on those lil Buggers You never know when they come up over Night, but for the Big Stuff we should be safe for a week now.

an other Hot Area is the Bay of Campeche, as the Models come to a quiet unusual agreement to get some Rumble there in the southern Gulf of Mexico mid week, we will see what those long shots finally will be, and the Gulf is anyways far away from Sunny isle.

enjoy a great and calm sunny week everyone

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

just for the Stats,
Hurricane Kaia is at this Moment located from my House in Cabeza de Toro/Punta Cana/DR Eastshores on 50 Degrees/NE a 560 Miles out/offshore.
as She is since Her big struggle a still very small Hurricanein Size/not spreading out Thunderstorms over far Distances,
such is a very safe Distance to not get bothered, even that She will still come closer on Her Pass.
doesn't look like any significant Disturbance/Bothering.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Hurricane Katia is on the approach,
during later Today and Tonight She will be on the bypass on Her closest Point to Punta Cana.
IF theer will be any effects felt such will happen during tomorrow and tomorrow Night,
She will not have any significant effects on our Area.
IMHO Katia runs already the Windpowers of a Mayor Hurricane Cat3 and will be named so before this afternoon has passed.
Tracking is Her steady NW Course which will keep Us far out of Her way.
no news on Her further Tracking, as due too many influencing Features of several different weather Conditions in different Regions(TS Lee's Force in the Gulf of Mexico and a TS Force remaints in the Pacific Ocean) make the deciders If and When and Where Hurricane Katia will make a Turn or not to stay away from or Hit the Eastshores somewheer on the Northamerican Continent.
the Forecast Models have a hard Time on such transforming Systems such as TS Lee to calculate their Future Powers and Influences to push a Trough of the USA SE or East which would recurve a by then most likely Cat4 Hurricane Katia.

no more Danger to await for Our Sunny Isle from Katia, so we can start to Focus on the next One, and as promised some weeks ago for more than 2 Months of a Time Period we will almost always get a next One this Season.

the newest baby is named Invest 95L, extremely Large and active and almost sure to get it moved, as conditions are just perfect to get something going over there on the far Highway.
the supposed Center is located around 9"N a 600miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands, same Place same Outlook, so we can for later this week expect to see similar Developments and Directions as been seen prior when we watched the Storms Emily, Irene and Katia.
Tracking of 95L is at this Point a straight Westward Hooo,
Surrounding Atmosphere over there is completely Moistured, no interfering Dry Air in sight for the next couple Days.
we will see how the Windshear goes til mid week, by wednesday we should see a quiet developed/organized Formation/System out there, by early weekend we should have a good Idea about "What's moving out there in front of the Door".

as for the actual weather here on the Eastshores:
no changes, still the dry and hot sunny perfect Beachweather with no bothering Clouds in Vicinity.
Radar out to our East is completely Clear, no Danger in sight for the next 3-5 Days for Sweet Sunny Isle.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

and keep in Mind that the next Name on the List will be a Gal again, Maria.

the negative on Maria is the DR Song which says "Maria se fue por la Playa",
even that I love 'em all around here, with or without Bikini,
but Maria should look for an other Beach to Bi$ch around, lol.

Mike