- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
Hurricane Season 2011
Cat3 mayor Hurricane katia shows no changes, runs as expected on Her NW'erly Route,
located now around 25.5"N and will continue to increase Her Windforces for several more days to come.
the Models show now more agreement about Her long range outlook and Recurve Her before a Hit with the US East Coast, so that will just leave it to 3-5 days of High Surf hitting the Beaches theer, but I still say such Curving firstly has to start before I would count on such.
as for Her effects on Us, She already passed Her closest Approaching Point to Punta Cana and the rest of Her Mass will pass Us this evening/tonight.
we already saw/felt the Rise of Swells/Surf at the Reefs here starting shortly before Noon, exactly when our regular Tidal Change anyways been on it's top Point of producing Swells at the Reef/around the Passage over the Reef in Cabeza de Toro, made for some impressive to watch Waves running into the Passage, but nothing of any Danger, offshore Sea itself been perfect all day long and after the Morning Charter we caught a further 9 Mahis during the afternoon Charter again.
as we will be on High Tide before we leave offshore in the Morning I guess the Seagrass will be located High Up on the Beach when we arrive there in the morning, as Katia should bring us a boit more of a Surf during tonight, going away slowly then the next 24hrs afterwards, so no real bothering from Her for the East Shores.
Invest 95L is def a thingy to watch, I await it to be the next Tropical depression during Tomorrow afternoon/evening.
it is impressive in size and has a strong amount of Thunderstorm Activity loaded, first Spin is already on even still just wandering around 9.5"N, Storms get much more Spin once they walk clearly above 10"N.
the System is surrounded by Moisture, no bothering Dry Air, windshear is present on it's South only and forcasted to go down the next 24hrs, so by Wednesday we should see a well sized System on it's way to get organized quickly.
Tracking is a mostly West, slight W-WNW, by actual Positioning and Tracking I would await it come towards the Northernmost Islands with also High Chances to make it straight over the Central Antilles into the Caribbean Sea, a Emily Tracking.
those Tracking Forecasts are still long shots, so very uncertain, we just need to watch.
Radar shows Us nice clear to our East, nothing bothering in Vicinity.
Mike
located now around 25.5"N and will continue to increase Her Windforces for several more days to come.
the Models show now more agreement about Her long range outlook and Recurve Her before a Hit with the US East Coast, so that will just leave it to 3-5 days of High Surf hitting the Beaches theer, but I still say such Curving firstly has to start before I would count on such.
as for Her effects on Us, She already passed Her closest Approaching Point to Punta Cana and the rest of Her Mass will pass Us this evening/tonight.
we already saw/felt the Rise of Swells/Surf at the Reefs here starting shortly before Noon, exactly when our regular Tidal Change anyways been on it's top Point of producing Swells at the Reef/around the Passage over the Reef in Cabeza de Toro, made for some impressive to watch Waves running into the Passage, but nothing of any Danger, offshore Sea itself been perfect all day long and after the Morning Charter we caught a further 9 Mahis during the afternoon Charter again.
as we will be on High Tide before we leave offshore in the Morning I guess the Seagrass will be located High Up on the Beach when we arrive there in the morning, as Katia should bring us a boit more of a Surf during tonight, going away slowly then the next 24hrs afterwards, so no real bothering from Her for the East Shores.
Invest 95L is def a thingy to watch, I await it to be the next Tropical depression during Tomorrow afternoon/evening.
it is impressive in size and has a strong amount of Thunderstorm Activity loaded, first Spin is already on even still just wandering around 9.5"N, Storms get much more Spin once they walk clearly above 10"N.
the System is surrounded by Moisture, no bothering Dry Air, windshear is present on it's South only and forcasted to go down the next 24hrs, so by Wednesday we should see a well sized System on it's way to get organized quickly.
Tracking is a mostly West, slight W-WNW, by actual Positioning and Tracking I would await it come towards the Northernmost Islands with also High Chances to make it straight over the Central Antilles into the Caribbean Sea, a Emily Tracking.
those Tracking Forecasts are still long shots, so very uncertain, we just need to watch.
Radar shows Us nice clear to our East, nothing bothering in Vicinity.
Mike
Hurricane Katia is now on Cat4, dropping Pressure and Rising Windforces,
wandering still NW, on slowed down forwardspeed of max 10 mphr.
She is still in the middle of Her rising progress,
will be a Interesting Path to follow for the Rest of the Week.
Invest 95L goes on to get organized and should become the next TD on the Screns,
wandering mostly Westwards on around 15 mphr near the 10th"N.
take care along the Northshores due High Swells coming in from Katia, as we feel them here on the Southern Tip of the Eastshore I would guess you Guys up North will get quiet some Wave Action the next 24-48hrs.
Mike
wandering still NW, on slowed down forwardspeed of max 10 mphr.
She is still in the middle of Her rising progress,
will be a Interesting Path to follow for the Rest of the Week.
Invest 95L goes on to get organized and should become the next TD on the Screns,
wandering mostly Westwards on around 15 mphr near the 10th"N.
take care along the Northshores due High Swells coming in from Katia, as we feel them here on the Southern Tip of the Eastshore I would guess you Guys up North will get quiet some Wave Action the next 24-48hrs.
Mike
Katia get's the windshear from the other side now,
She was a Cat 4 Cyclone for some hours last night but even running deadly Windforces Her Size is too small to shut Her off from unfavorable surroundings, looks like She passed Her Point of Maximum Powers, still running NW.
effects of Katia on the Eastshore been smooth, the swells brought not too much of Waveactivity onshore and this morning running on the low side of the Tide the Beach in Cabeza de Toro is supercalm, inshore and Offshore Sea has some swells but is over all a Flat Plate for an other perfect fishing Day.
in our completely closed Bay behind a barrier Reef the Seagrass brought in is located no more than a good 35ft further Landwards than usual, so nothing special.
95L is developing quiet well.
within the large Area covered by the System I would expect that a Center get's defined around 12-13"N and 36-38"W during Today to be declared a Tropical Depression.
mayor Movement of the System over all is Westward, but the exact tracking will be seen once it is organized more Compact/the Center defined, by steering Patterns actually running oput there it should wander WNW towards the Northern Islands.
Time to hit the Road to get some Baitfish in Boca Chica this morning.
Radar on our East is clear
make's for an other stunning sunny Beach Day
Mike
She was a Cat 4 Cyclone for some hours last night but even running deadly Windforces Her Size is too small to shut Her off from unfavorable surroundings, looks like She passed Her Point of Maximum Powers, still running NW.
effects of Katia on the Eastshore been smooth, the swells brought not too much of Waveactivity onshore and this morning running on the low side of the Tide the Beach in Cabeza de Toro is supercalm, inshore and Offshore Sea has some swells but is over all a Flat Plate for an other perfect fishing Day.
in our completely closed Bay behind a barrier Reef the Seagrass brought in is located no more than a good 35ft further Landwards than usual, so nothing special.
95L is developing quiet well.
within the large Area covered by the System I would expect that a Center get's defined around 12-13"N and 36-38"W during Today to be declared a Tropical Depression.
mayor Movement of the System over all is Westward, but the exact tracking will be seen once it is organized more Compact/the Center defined, by steering Patterns actually running oput there it should wander WNW towards the Northern Islands.
Time to hit the Road to get some Baitfish in Boca Chica this morning.
Radar on our East is clear
make's for an other stunning sunny Beach Day
Mike
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a day on the Road to Boca Chica, back home since half an hour, I see quiet a Lineup on the Maps, and not a nice one.
Katia is History for Us, recurving or not will be seen the next couple Days.
she tried to replace Her eyewall, knocked down the ole one but the windshear on her NW hoinders Her building a New one til now, so she went down to Cat2 force only.
it will take Her a while to overcome that struggle and build a new eyewall as she is small in size, during tomorrow she should have managed such and reintensify again, how strong she could be again is hard to say, as also Her final Tracking is hard to Guess on.
95L turned into Tropical Depression #14 and I would not be surprised to see it to be a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning.
that Storm is very well organized and on a good Size to finally shut itself off against bothering Shears and dry Air.
TD#14 is actually on it Way towards the Islands, by the actual Forward Speed of 18mphr it could reach the Islands early Saturday morning/Sat Noon and that Storm should be a Hurricane by then.
still far away of course many changes could happen to TD#14, we need to watch it all week long.
the biggest concerns are much closer than TD#14,
it is the Disturbance which popped up right in front of the Islands this afternoon,
located just a 400 Miles East of the Central Antilles.
this System has a low/almost zero chance to become a Tropical Cyclone any soon, as it is under the Influence of strongest Upper Level Winds from Hurricane Katia.
but it looks like the perfect Bugger for Fisherman's lil Paradise to mess up with our weather in case it make's the way over the lil Islands, it will not become something strong but a wide cloudy Area is anyways more of concern for Sea Conditions and Fishing than some Windforces, as the winds approach fast and are quickly gone/over, rainareas can last for a while.
will have a closer look on both Eastern Stormies tonight,
but the lil unnamed Bugger looks like the P.I.T.A. thingy for here this week.
Mike
Katia is History for Us, recurving or not will be seen the next couple Days.
she tried to replace Her eyewall, knocked down the ole one but the windshear on her NW hoinders Her building a New one til now, so she went down to Cat2 force only.
it will take Her a while to overcome that struggle and build a new eyewall as she is small in size, during tomorrow she should have managed such and reintensify again, how strong she could be again is hard to say, as also Her final Tracking is hard to Guess on.
95L turned into Tropical Depression #14 and I would not be surprised to see it to be a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning.
that Storm is very well organized and on a good Size to finally shut itself off against bothering Shears and dry Air.
TD#14 is actually on it Way towards the Islands, by the actual Forward Speed of 18mphr it could reach the Islands early Saturday morning/Sat Noon and that Storm should be a Hurricane by then.
still far away of course many changes could happen to TD#14, we need to watch it all week long.
the biggest concerns are much closer than TD#14,
it is the Disturbance which popped up right in front of the Islands this afternoon,
located just a 400 Miles East of the Central Antilles.
this System has a low/almost zero chance to become a Tropical Cyclone any soon, as it is under the Influence of strongest Upper Level Winds from Hurricane Katia.
but it looks like the perfect Bugger for Fisherman's lil Paradise to mess up with our weather in case it make's the way over the lil Islands, it will not become something strong but a wide cloudy Area is anyways more of concern for Sea Conditions and Fishing than some Windforces, as the winds approach fast and are quickly gone/over, rainareas can last for a while.
will have a closer look on both Eastern Stormies tonight,
but the lil unnamed Bugger looks like the P.I.T.A. thingy for here this week.
Mike
Tailbands of Hurricane Katia and the Disturbed Weather/Rainload I mentioned Yesterday right East of the Antilles get mixed with each others, so that Disturbance isn't anymore.
we should see some clouds over the SE and East of the DR during today, rain or not rain is hard to say, there is not much water out there to come, most likely we will stay completely Dry.
TD#14 is a Westward Runner on the 12th"N towards the Islands, due a slight W-WNW Drift it can be expected to arrive around the Northern Antilles on Saturday between the earliest Wee hours and Noon.
TD#14 looks like a full and Complete Tropical Storm to me, it has the windpower, Spin, Heavy Thunderstorm Activity and shows upper Level Outflow, running in a moisture Environment over Hot Waters with windshear in the low-mid range only, so I see no Reason why TD#14 should not be named Tropical Storm Maria within the next few Hours.
the Storm is well organized and continues with that, windshear is til now forecasted to stay in the low-mid range for the next days, my best Guess is a weak-mid strength Cat1 Hurricane for the NE'ern Islands mid Saturday morning Tracking WNW by then continuing Inte nsification as long as no High Windshear would settle in there.
the actual Intensification Models do not see 'Maria' strengthen so quick and strong and bring it max as a Tropical Storm to the islands, I do not see why the Intesification should be so slow/weak as the Storm runs under very fvorable Conditions.
once passed the Islands a further Tracking of the Storm would be a Gamble, so not worth to 'Guess' too much by now, it is too early. by actual position and tracking a Path in the middle of Irene's and Katia's looks like a high possibility.
even very wet over the Antilles there is actually no danger out ob Our East for the next Days.
we will keep an eye on TD#14, as it will come close and has high chances to mess with our Weather/Sea Conditions at least.
Mike
we should see some clouds over the SE and East of the DR during today, rain or not rain is hard to say, there is not much water out there to come, most likely we will stay completely Dry.
TD#14 is a Westward Runner on the 12th"N towards the Islands, due a slight W-WNW Drift it can be expected to arrive around the Northern Antilles on Saturday between the earliest Wee hours and Noon.
TD#14 looks like a full and Complete Tropical Storm to me, it has the windpower, Spin, Heavy Thunderstorm Activity and shows upper Level Outflow, running in a moisture Environment over Hot Waters with windshear in the low-mid range only, so I see no Reason why TD#14 should not be named Tropical Storm Maria within the next few Hours.
the Storm is well organized and continues with that, windshear is til now forecasted to stay in the low-mid range for the next days, my best Guess is a weak-mid strength Cat1 Hurricane for the NE'ern Islands mid Saturday morning Tracking WNW by then continuing Inte nsification as long as no High Windshear would settle in there.
the actual Intensification Models do not see 'Maria' strengthen so quick and strong and bring it max as a Tropical Storm to the islands, I do not see why the Intesification should be so slow/weak as the Storm runs under very fvorable Conditions.
once passed the Islands a further Tracking of the Storm would be a Gamble, so not worth to 'Guess' too much by now, it is too early. by actual position and tracking a Path in the middle of Irene's and Katia's looks like a high possibility.
even very wet over the Antilles there is actually no danger out ob Our East for the next Days.
we will keep an eye on TD#14, as it will come close and has high chances to mess with our Weather/Sea Conditions at least.
Mike
Yes,
it's a Gal again, lol.
the Styorm should go on with development and gaining Powers steadily during the next several Days, ay least I can not find any hindering circumstances to bother the Girlie.
Tracking is the same as this morning a mostly straight westward Hooo with a slight W-WNW touch in it.
at this Time the first Destin on a expected Long Track of Maria should be around the Northern Antilles somewhere between the Wee hrs and Noon Saturday morning.
the Further Track is very uncertain and the Models are not in much agreement with me about the Intensification Progress of Maria, as they do not let Her reach Hurricane strength before she would be long Gone away from us.
I disagree as I see Maria as a Hurricane when she approaches the islands.
how powerfull inj case of windforces or Painfull in case of Rainloads she will finally be on Her approach we need to watch the next 48hrs, growing too much in size would hinder too qick increase of Windforces, if it stays on the smaller scale in size Maria would have all the possibilities to gain highest Windforces which would produce on such close Approach quiet a heck of Storm Surge for the Isles.
in 24hrs we will get much more details, in 48hrs we will know what Game is on.
let's be patient and enjoy the Sunny Beach Weather.
the Fridge is stocked anyways year around, just in case, lol.
Mike
it's a Gal again, lol.
the Styorm should go on with development and gaining Powers steadily during the next several Days, ay least I can not find any hindering circumstances to bother the Girlie.
Tracking is the same as this morning a mostly straight westward Hooo with a slight W-WNW touch in it.
at this Time the first Destin on a expected Long Track of Maria should be around the Northern Antilles somewhere between the Wee hrs and Noon Saturday morning.
the Further Track is very uncertain and the Models are not in much agreement with me about the Intensification Progress of Maria, as they do not let Her reach Hurricane strength before she would be long Gone away from us.
I disagree as I see Maria as a Hurricane when she approaches the islands.
how powerfull inj case of windforces or Painfull in case of Rainloads she will finally be on Her approach we need to watch the next 48hrs, growing too much in size would hinder too qick increase of Windforces, if it stays on the smaller scale in size Maria would have all the possibilities to gain highest Windforces which would produce on such close Approach quiet a heck of Storm Surge for the Isles.
in 24hrs we will get much more details, in 48hrs we will know what Game is on.
let's be patient and enjoy the Sunny Beach Weather.
the Fridge is stocked anyways year around, just in case, lol.
Mike
the lil Bugger of a Disturbed Weather Area which jumped the bandwagon on Katia's Tail looks like the Bugger itself,
it is over the Virgins now and moves westward, already visible on the far East radar.
we stayed dry today on the East and will continue that for more Hours,
Ocean is flat calm, no wind around, perfect for a Beachday,
but we may get an shower or two out of the East late tonight.
as far as the Storms go nothing new,
Katia is gone and Maria is too far away to be concerned or tell def Trackings.
Mike
it is over the Virgins now and moves westward, already visible on the far East radar.
we stayed dry today on the East and will continue that for more Hours,
Ocean is flat calm, no wind around, perfect for a Beachday,
but we may get an shower or two out of the East late tonight.
as far as the Storms go nothing new,
Katia is gone and Maria is too far away to be concerned or tell def Trackings.
Mike
6:30 PM: On the Atlantic ocean from Playa Chiquita outside of Sosua. Skys are a light gray overcast all over. Winds picking up from the N.N.E. and seas building from same with larger and deeper swells that are now hitting the cliffs and sending spray up 30 feet and starting to blow in on a light wind. What we call a "salt event" that will cover everything. Very few white caps but becoming choppy and appears to be getting stronger.
I can imagine that, Ringo.
the lil Bugger without a number or a Name is the bothering One, not dangerous as to be anything devastating, but bothering and hard. it will be the lil inconvenience for the next Days and there is quiet a piece of stuff to come form your East.
when finally arriving it will come in from ENE'ern sides, but the over all comes from the East and then takes you under it's Spin, which is dictated by gone but still Katia.
here on the Southern Tip of the east we've been a bit out of range, the effects been completely Minor, not worth to mention, as we had today again a extra calm Day with Flat offshore Sea all Day long.
we do not have any wind since several days over here, which I expect to get a bit changed tonight, not rough, but the Breeze should move a bit at least, will feel fine to refresh as it is extremely Hot and Humid here since Irene failed on her vacations.
Mike
the lil Bugger without a number or a Name is the bothering One, not dangerous as to be anything devastating, but bothering and hard. it will be the lil inconvenience for the next Days and there is quiet a piece of stuff to come form your East.
when finally arriving it will come in from ENE'ern sides, but the over all comes from the East and then takes you under it's Spin, which is dictated by gone but still Katia.
here on the Southern Tip of the east we've been a bit out of range, the effects been completely Minor, not worth to mention, as we had today again a extra calm Day with Flat offshore Sea all Day long.
we do not have any wind since several days over here, which I expect to get a bit changed tonight, not rough, but the Breeze should move a bit at least, will feel fine to refresh as it is extremely Hot and Humid here since Irene failed on her vacations.
Mike
with Tropical Storm Nate in the bay of Campeche we have already the 14th!!! Named Storm of the still Young Season.
this puts 2011 on 2nd place in History since 1851 for reaching the point of the 14th named Storm so early.
the still All Time Record?
Yes, the hyperactive 2005 Season, and we missed it by just 1 day,
as back in 2005 the 14th named Storm been up on September 6th 2005.
what the Storm's name been?
heck Yes, it was Nate, too,
as we use this year the same Hurricane Names List than we had back in 2005,
iwth the lil exceptions of retired names of course, such as Katrina which been replaced by Katia, the Katia still running on the screens.
and I found the Reason why the Models forecasted since last night the Future Powers much weaker than I myself would have expected them to be, it is a strong windshear of over 30knots on it's Top, not shown on the Windshear Maps/Forecast Maps, so I never had that in mind when making a Guess on the Lady's Future Powers.
here I cut back completely and run along with the Models, development of Maria will be slow or even stucking on the actual Level for a while, it will also hinder her to grow too big on Size, all not that bad of a Outlook in case of our sweet sunny Isle and a very positive one for the Fisherman on the East.
by Now, still a several days in advance "Guess" with it's usual uncertainties, I would now bring Maria by Friday Night or early sat morning 200 miles NE of the Antilles, small in Size and just as a Tropical Storm in Windforce.
she is nrunning actually on a extremely high forward speed of at least 20knots forward, extremely high for a Storm, too fats to control for the Lady, but on the other side the quick forward speed is also the reason that she could stay alive and not been destroyed by the strong winds over Her Head.
to gain Forces She would need to slow down a lot, but that would during the next 24hrs mean to get Azzkicked to Stormy Heaven by that High Level Winds very quick.
this Eve the formerly Potential Bad B$tch looks just like a Teenage Girlie on High Heels to Me, every next step could be the one which let's Her fall down.
sure we need to go on watching, she's more than 2/maybe 3 Days away from a approach close by,
but for now not a Concern for Dangers.
for a lil weather Mess Up maybe Yes, but that's something else to find out closer to the weekend.
radar out of my east shows Rain approaching the Virgin Islands,
over here the Mona Channel looks for widest Parts Dry, few rainy portions on their way, just the ones which provide at the small isolated Areas where they Hit a sprinkling of a few minutes only.
all safe and clear from the East for tonight,
smelling da lil 8lbs Mahi in the Oven right now, who fitted completely with it's Head in da Oven,
make's together with the tonight's calm and dry weather Outlook a perfect Night Forecast.
Life is Good
Mike
this puts 2011 on 2nd place in History since 1851 for reaching the point of the 14th named Storm so early.
the still All Time Record?
Yes, the hyperactive 2005 Season, and we missed it by just 1 day,
as back in 2005 the 14th named Storm been up on September 6th 2005.
what the Storm's name been?
heck Yes, it was Nate, too,
as we use this year the same Hurricane Names List than we had back in 2005,
iwth the lil exceptions of retired names of course, such as Katrina which been replaced by Katia, the Katia still running on the screens.
and I found the Reason why the Models forecasted since last night the Future Powers much weaker than I myself would have expected them to be, it is a strong windshear of over 30knots on it's Top, not shown on the Windshear Maps/Forecast Maps, so I never had that in mind when making a Guess on the Lady's Future Powers.
here I cut back completely and run along with the Models, development of Maria will be slow or even stucking on the actual Level for a while, it will also hinder her to grow too big on Size, all not that bad of a Outlook in case of our sweet sunny Isle and a very positive one for the Fisherman on the East.
by Now, still a several days in advance "Guess" with it's usual uncertainties, I would now bring Maria by Friday Night or early sat morning 200 miles NE of the Antilles, small in Size and just as a Tropical Storm in Windforce.
she is nrunning actually on a extremely high forward speed of at least 20knots forward, extremely high for a Storm, too fats to control for the Lady, but on the other side the quick forward speed is also the reason that she could stay alive and not been destroyed by the strong winds over Her Head.
to gain Forces She would need to slow down a lot, but that would during the next 24hrs mean to get Azzkicked to Stormy Heaven by that High Level Winds very quick.
this Eve the formerly Potential Bad B$tch looks just like a Teenage Girlie on High Heels to Me, every next step could be the one which let's Her fall down.
sure we need to go on watching, she's more than 2/maybe 3 Days away from a approach close by,
but for now not a Concern for Dangers.
for a lil weather Mess Up maybe Yes, but that's something else to find out closer to the weekend.
radar out of my east shows Rain approaching the Virgin Islands,
over here the Mona Channel looks for widest Parts Dry, few rainy portions on their way, just the ones which provide at the small isolated Areas where they Hit a sprinkling of a few minutes only.
all safe and clear from the East for tonight,
smelling da lil 8lbs Mahi in the Oven right now, who fitted completely with it's Head in da Oven,
make's together with the tonight's calm and dry weather Outlook a perfect Night Forecast.
Life is Good
Mike
Close and as TS
The computer models show TS Maria in rare agreement very near the NE of the DR on Sunday evening. :ermm:
Tropical Storm Maria : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground
donP
The computer models show TS Maria in rare agreement very near the NE of the DR on Sunday evening. :ermm:
Tropical Storm Maria : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground
donP
my Calculations of a Westward Track against the Models NW Tracking came sorrily true,
Maria went all night long and still straight West, is still on exactly 13"N, nothing of a northern direction to it.
if she sticks on that Western Heading today and tonight she will most likely wander on the Line of Irene, which brings Her over POuerto Rico and closer to our NE than expected in prior Tracking Forecasts.
many things can happen with Her til tomorrow night,
the good thingy is that Windshear took Her quiet Hard and heavy, the Gal is quiet "Undone" out on the Street there, and the Shear is expected to stay unfavorable for Intensification.
the Sat Shots show today wuiet strong Thunderstorm Activities on a long Distance West of Maria, we will see how such Areas influence each others, but she actually does not look any impressive to gaion powers, max windspeeds measured in Her Center when she passed a Weather Buoy this morning showed just 42mphr winds.
let's stay Tuned,
Time to hit da Road again for Me
Mike
Maria went all night long and still straight West, is still on exactly 13"N, nothing of a northern direction to it.
if she sticks on that Western Heading today and tonight she will most likely wander on the Line of Irene, which brings Her over POuerto Rico and closer to our NE than expected in prior Tracking Forecasts.
many things can happen with Her til tomorrow night,
the good thingy is that Windshear took Her quiet Hard and heavy, the Gal is quiet "Undone" out on the Street there, and the Shear is expected to stay unfavorable for Intensification.
the Sat Shots show today wuiet strong Thunderstorm Activities on a long Distance West of Maria, we will see how such Areas influence each others, but she actually does not look any impressive to gaion powers, max windspeeds measured in Her Center when she passed a Weather Buoy this morning showed just 42mphr winds.
let's stay Tuned,
Time to hit da Road again for Me
Mike
Linchstop and Time to update ouyr actual today's wetaher on the east.
been all day Dry in cabeza de Toro,
til now the first Rains passed well to our North and also on our South, nothing for the Eastshore til now.
Radar Shows a quiet Large Rainload with strong Winds mid Mona Channel, so for later on we have good chances to get some Water for the Trees in the Backyard.
Matia is running very fast forward, over 20mphr, last night she had been even good over 20Knots of forward speed,
if that speed continues she will reach the Islands somewhere between Martinique and Antigua very late Friday Night/very early saturday morning.
the Storm get's still ripped apart by high Windshear, so I do not expect any dangerous Windforces for the Islands, and as it got separated into portions it does at this moment not look like any conentrated haeviest Rainload neither.
after the first Islands a Furtehr Path would be most likely WNW over eastern Puerto Rico, but such 2 days ahead outlook contains many uncertainties.
at this moment a worst case scenario from Maria for the East of the DR I would see as 2 cloudy Days with showers on just a mid Breeze as max, there are no strong winds reaching out any far from the Center, IF there will be a Center left by the weekend.
such showers could even come down near windfree, similar to a Vaguada.
Mike
been all day Dry in cabeza de Toro,
til now the first Rains passed well to our North and also on our South, nothing for the Eastshore til now.
Radar Shows a quiet Large Rainload with strong Winds mid Mona Channel, so for later on we have good chances to get some Water for the Trees in the Backyard.
Matia is running very fast forward, over 20mphr, last night she had been even good over 20Knots of forward speed,
if that speed continues she will reach the Islands somewhere between Martinique and Antigua very late Friday Night/very early saturday morning.
the Storm get's still ripped apart by high Windshear, so I do not expect any dangerous Windforces for the Islands, and as it got separated into portions it does at this moment not look like any conentrated haeviest Rainload neither.
after the first Islands a Furtehr Path would be most likely WNW over eastern Puerto Rico, but such 2 days ahead outlook contains many uncertainties.
at this moment a worst case scenario from Maria for the East of the DR I would see as 2 cloudy Days with showers on just a mid Breeze as max, there are no strong winds reaching out any far from the Center, IF there will be a Center left by the weekend.
such showers could even come down near windfree, similar to a Vaguada.
Mike
people are too much foicused on "Stroms" and that crap, as it is very popular to be shown on TV and they can talk about dangers and damages etc etc.
darn,
I am as the fisherman just concerned about the lil small sh$tty weather which bothers business.
a Storm comes one day and is over the other, but right now we started here on the east coast a crappy weather weekend, even that the weekend is still far away and it also may last til some days afterwards.
the Disturbance which hit the Tail of Katia is pushing quiet some clouds down over the eastshores, no wind or such kinda danger, but it is clouds and soft Rain which is on in the Punta Cana Area since late afternoon, first partly, but it looks like we may get it for tonight all over.
that may take 2 days to pass, but before those 2 days are over we will have the clouds of Maria in the Area, at least nearby but more likely Over, so this coming weekend looks like a maintenance weekend to Me at the moment, fishing tomorrow morning and right afterwards taking the Turbos off the engines and bring them to the Diagnostic Center for their maintenance.
Maria been hit very hard and taken apart by windshear but also showed some pieces of recovery the last hours, hard to say If she will be back to get organized or not and If, how strong.
to Me Maria will even go down to just a Tropical depression again before hitting the Antilles, maybe a weak Tropical Storm of 50mphr max winds when walking Eastern Puerto Rico as a maximum.
if she mau intensify afterwards to become a weak Cat1 Hurricane when approaching the Turks etc is too far ahead for an Forecast and anyways out of Our Area by then.
Maria is IMHO not a danger of any Windforce nor a Danger of Flooding Rainloads for Our island, but She def will be a P.I.T.A. for my Biz due sh$itty weather for some days, so I just Hate the B$tch.
late tonight or better tomorrow morning we will see how good she will be back on a way of recovery or not, I don't see her much recovering, the we can decide on a Weekend off from Fishing and run a BBQ on the Ranch in the Mountains.
darn Gals, always a mess for the Boy's Lifetime Plans, lol.
Mike
darn,
I am as the fisherman just concerned about the lil small sh$tty weather which bothers business.
a Storm comes one day and is over the other, but right now we started here on the east coast a crappy weather weekend, even that the weekend is still far away and it also may last til some days afterwards.
the Disturbance which hit the Tail of Katia is pushing quiet some clouds down over the eastshores, no wind or such kinda danger, but it is clouds and soft Rain which is on in the Punta Cana Area since late afternoon, first partly, but it looks like we may get it for tonight all over.
that may take 2 days to pass, but before those 2 days are over we will have the clouds of Maria in the Area, at least nearby but more likely Over, so this coming weekend looks like a maintenance weekend to Me at the moment, fishing tomorrow morning and right afterwards taking the Turbos off the engines and bring them to the Diagnostic Center for their maintenance.
Maria been hit very hard and taken apart by windshear but also showed some pieces of recovery the last hours, hard to say If she will be back to get organized or not and If, how strong.
to Me Maria will even go down to just a Tropical depression again before hitting the Antilles, maybe a weak Tropical Storm of 50mphr max winds when walking Eastern Puerto Rico as a maximum.
if she mau intensify afterwards to become a weak Cat1 Hurricane when approaching the Turks etc is too far ahead for an Forecast and anyways out of Our Area by then.
Maria is IMHO not a danger of any Windforce nor a Danger of Flooding Rainloads for Our island, but She def will be a P.I.T.A. for my Biz due sh$itty weather for some days, so I just Hate the B$tch.
late tonight or better tomorrow morning we will see how good she will be back on a way of recovery or not, I don't see her much recovering, the we can decide on a Weekend off from Fishing and run a BBQ on the Ranch in the Mountains.
darn Gals, always a mess for the Boy's Lifetime Plans, lol.
Mike
Maria struggled long but get's her act together now.
the windshear will continue to hinder a fast intensification, but she is increasing Powers slow but steadily.
She is quiet a Undone Gal as the Shear took her apart and there's the danger for the Fisherman.
Maria grew up this morning significantly in Size, for a Tropical Storm She will be a monster in Size over the Virgin Islands and near/over Eastern Puerto Rico tomorrow/Saturday, her widespread thunderstorms and Rains are actually over all of the Antilles from north to the south, so our PC Ocean can be expected to become quiet a Mess for the weekend.
I left offshore for fishing this early morning under Flat Conditions, Ocean been beautiful, wind been Zero, in the Areas 15nmls offshore we measured close to 20mphr winds and Sea started to get choppy, still not anything rough but on the Change to grow big, a huge change of Conditions within just 5hrs, so the Gladiator will be on it's way to Cap Cana as the weekend Safe Spot in around 30minutes, as there is a high possibility to have very rough Sea to bring the Boats out during tomorrow.
no change on the Tracking of Maria, she wanders WNW heading to walk right over the US Virgin Islands and will then during tomorrow come very close or over Eastern Puerto Rico, too close of a call to keep the Boat here at my House.
even very different in powers, the awaited behavior for Maria is very similar as we saw on Irene, so once She pulls away from Puerto Rico She should start to intensify quicker and become a Cat1 Hurricane soon by around tomorrow night, wander WNW from there.
that Track will bring quiet some Rainloads to the DR Northshores, actually NO Winddanger from Maria expected, as Her Center will not come really close, it is her huge Size as a Tropical Storm with heavy Thunderstorm Areas spread out far from the Center surrounded by waterloads which will be bothering.
we pretty sure will get a nice share of that even down here on the southern Tip of the Eastcoast/Punta Cana.
no Preparations for a Storm Hit or danger due Windforces,
but for a long Wet Weekend, keep the Cattle away from the Rivers and the Keybords dry.
I will check again late afternoon after I picked Up my Boys at the Cap Can Marina, and of course I will continue such during tonight and tomorrow all day long.
fishing for Sat and Sund is skipped, hopefully Monday will be fine again Oceanwise, but that we will see by sunday.
Mike
the windshear will continue to hinder a fast intensification, but she is increasing Powers slow but steadily.
She is quiet a Undone Gal as the Shear took her apart and there's the danger for the Fisherman.
Maria grew up this morning significantly in Size, for a Tropical Storm She will be a monster in Size over the Virgin Islands and near/over Eastern Puerto Rico tomorrow/Saturday, her widespread thunderstorms and Rains are actually over all of the Antilles from north to the south, so our PC Ocean can be expected to become quiet a Mess for the weekend.
I left offshore for fishing this early morning under Flat Conditions, Ocean been beautiful, wind been Zero, in the Areas 15nmls offshore we measured close to 20mphr winds and Sea started to get choppy, still not anything rough but on the Change to grow big, a huge change of Conditions within just 5hrs, so the Gladiator will be on it's way to Cap Cana as the weekend Safe Spot in around 30minutes, as there is a high possibility to have very rough Sea to bring the Boats out during tomorrow.
no change on the Tracking of Maria, she wanders WNW heading to walk right over the US Virgin Islands and will then during tomorrow come very close or over Eastern Puerto Rico, too close of a call to keep the Boat here at my House.
even very different in powers, the awaited behavior for Maria is very similar as we saw on Irene, so once She pulls away from Puerto Rico She should start to intensify quicker and become a Cat1 Hurricane soon by around tomorrow night, wander WNW from there.
that Track will bring quiet some Rainloads to the DR Northshores, actually NO Winddanger from Maria expected, as Her Center will not come really close, it is her huge Size as a Tropical Storm with heavy Thunderstorm Areas spread out far from the Center surrounded by waterloads which will be bothering.
we pretty sure will get a nice share of that even down here on the southern Tip of the Eastcoast/Punta Cana.
no Preparations for a Storm Hit or danger due Windforces,
but for a long Wet Weekend, keep the Cattle away from the Rivers and the Keybords dry.
I will check again late afternoon after I picked Up my Boys at the Cap Can Marina, and of course I will continue such during tonight and tomorrow all day long.
fishing for Sat and Sund is skipped, hopefully Monday will be fine again Oceanwise, but that we will see by sunday.
Mike