Hurricane Season 2011

[MikeFisher]

naaa,
in reality it still has not been that time of the year, yet, as they all popped up, they've been as far as their high number goes far out of the Ordinary for this Time of the Year.
their real Line-Up Time still has to come to start Up, we can await a long active Season this year, but such has nothing to say about "very actively effected" or such for Us, as til now the line ups been no Dangerzones, just TD's and very Weak Tropical Storms, even in good ole Germany where I grew up on the Countryside we have far away from any Ocean Storms/Winds much stronger than that, they are just not shown on CNN or the Internet and they are not named Sesationalizm wise "Tropical Storms", ha ha ha.
for the next 2-3 weeks the maybe coming up thingies should stay on the same Level as the ones we already saw this Season, by mid September ahead their "Development average" runs far Higher Chances of building up a Bad Baby then, by SST's and La Nina's conditions I would say we stay active til late October for the dangerous big Ones and should watch out for the very nearby quick uppopping TS's during whole November right in front of the Islands.

til now nothing happened.

Hey,
it's sunny,
so it's Hot,
grab a Greenie

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

it is one of the few Situations where I don't like much to be "Right", but it is.
the 2 Days ago "Diminished" Invest 93L is back on the Screens as Awaited.
Cebtered just 300miles East of the Central Antilles, walking on a Quick Pace straight Eastward on 13"N the very moisture System is on the most common and Ideal Path for a Cape Verde Storm to enter the Caribbean Sea and make it all the Way West over Jamaica towards Yucatan/NW Cuba to reach the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean never got anything good out of that Position/Tracking.
reborn just a couple hours ago the System still dos not show much Thnderstorm Activity, Yet, and the first Rain already arrived at the Central Antilles and will pour down during today and tomorrow there.
the right after rebirth Touch with Islands will not bother the System much, as it is compact and right after the quick walk over the Antilles it will feel very fine over Hot Caribbean Waters and under expected to stay low Windshear.
the Atmosphere over the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea is actually very Dry, a thingy the Storms do not like, so the possibilities of how big/strong a Storm can grow out of Invest 93L will strongly depend on how quick it builds a well defined Center protected by a good amount of Thunderstorms to seal the core from the Dry Air.
it been knocked down by receiveing Dry Air into the Center due high windshear 2 days ago.
we have dry air again, but no significant windshear to blow it in, so once a strong Thunderstorm filled Center is present the dry air will not have effects anymore, we will see very soon who wins the Race against the Clock there.

what's in it for Us on Sunny Paradise Isle?

a heck of Rain, specially for the Southshores and a few thousand Saona Island Excursions canceled during mid-end of this week.
til now 93L does not look like a big dangerouys thingy for Our Island aside of some strong showers as the worst case Scenario, but on the Further Path with forecasted windshear to stay very Low for several Days to come the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico need to watch what's brewing up there.

the Highway is actually nice wet up in the mid Atmosphere, the next waterload already approached Atlantic Waters SE of the Cape Verde Islands a few hours ago, while the til now 7 weak Storms 'wettened' the formerly dry Atmosphere around the Islands as 93L will moisture the same here in the Caribbean Sea, Highway and Destin's Sideroads are newly Paved for da Traffic.

today here on the East Shores:
full sunny from early on, hard to spot a lil cloud somewhere in the Distance.
it will be an other Hot and Humid Beachday,
Wind is down on Zero since last Eve,
inshore and offshore Sea is a Flat Plate, not moving anything.
for tomorrow we can await the same for the East, further ahead we need to wait til we see what 93L is up to.

a Happy Sunny new Week to everybody

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

93L stays on its Track, straight Westward.
actually centered south of Puerto Rico in theb Caribbean Sea it will pass our Southshores today and tonight,
then it will bring hefty Rainfalls to Southern Haiti and Jamaica during tomorrow and Thursday.
by wednesday afternoon ahead chances for Development will rise quiet high, windshear is forecasted to stay low for the next Days.
to us on the East it brought just some nasty Gusts and a fresh mid morning shower, now the Sun is back out but the Skies over the Water are Dark.
the Radar shows a large amount of Rain moving straight East to West on SE/S and SW Ouerto Rico, which will wander along Hispaniola's Southshores Today.
har to say how much of it will rain on Dominican Soil, we are located on the Border to it's rainload, looks like most of it will stay out on Sea. the Area of Higuey received this mid morning quiet a strong Waterload while Punta Cana on the Coast got just a bit refreshed.
for the Tracking we are still on the same steering Paterns as we have them since weeks/during Emily.
a weak Storm will go on to wander straight from East to West towards Yucatan and then into the Gulf of Mexico(if it survivies the touch with Central American Mountains and Yucatan) where a very weak Storm would wander towards the North Mexican Eastshores and a in the Gulf Developing Storm would wander NW'wards towards the US Gulf Coast, a in the Caribbean Sea developing stronger Storm will get a WNW - Drift towards Western Cuba.
how much powers the System gets is hard to say, water temps are hot here, windshear is very low and 93L is moisturing it's Environment quiet well and quick, on the other hand it is surrounded by Dry Air on the Western Path, the western Caribbean has to watch how much of a Influence that Dry Air finally really will have on development.
til now the System is very poor Organized and should not change significantly before it has passed Our Island's Area of Influence.

da Highway:
Yes, I guess I mentioned yesterday that a new wide Tropical Wave is approaching Atlantic Waters,
it is now located some hundred Miles SW of the Cape Verde Islandswandering on quick 15+mphr Westward.
that Tropical Wave can be expected to become a Invest very soon and both of the reliable Long Range Models show it as a Tropical Depression over the Central Antilles by mid Saturday.
the Highway will not get bored.

Mike

 

[Bryanell]

93L stays on its Track, straight Westward.
actually centered south of Puerto Rico in theb Caribbean Sea it will pass our Southshores today and tonight,
then it will bring hefty Rainfalls to Southern Haiti and Jamaica during tomorrow and Thursday.
by wednesday afternoon ahead chances for Development will rise quiet high, windshear is forecasted to stay low for the next Days.
to us on the East it brought just some nasty Gusts and a fresh mid morning shower, now the Sun is back out but the Skies over the Water are Dark.
the Radar shows a large amount of Rain moving straight East to West on SE/S and SW Ouerto Rico, which will wander along Hispaniola's Southshores Today.
har to say how much of it will rain on Dominican Soil, we are located on the Border to it's rainload, looks like most of it will stay out on Sea. the Area of Higuey received this mid morning quiet a strong Waterload while Punta Cana on the Coast got just a bit refreshed.
for the Tracking we are still on the same steering Paterns as we have them since weeks/during Emily.
a weak Storm will go on to wander straight from East to West towards Yucatan and then into the Gulf of Mexico(if it survivies the touch with Central American Mountains and Yucatan) where a very weak Storm would wander towards the North Mexican Eastshores and a in the Gulf Developing Storm would wander NW'wards towards the US Gulf Coast, a in the Caribbean Sea developing stronger Storm will get a WNW - Drift towards Western Cuba.
how much powers the System gets is hard to say, water temps are hot here, windshear is very low and 93L is moisturing it's Environment quiet well and quick, on the other hand it is surrounded by Dry Air on the Western Path, the western Caribbean has to watch how much of a Influence that Dry Air finally really will have on development.
til now the System is very poor Organized and should not change significantly before it has passed Our Island's Area of Influence.

da Highway:
Yes, I guess I mentioned yesterday that a new wide Tropical Wave is approaching Atlantic Waters,
it is now located some hundred Miles SW of the Cape Verde Islandswandering on quick 15+mphr Westward.
that Tropical Wave can be expected to become a Invest very soon and both of the reliable Long Range Models show it as a Tropical Depression over the Central Antilles by mid Saturday.
the Highway will not get bored.

Mike

It just hit Los Cacis here in SD. Skies suddenly went black, BIG thunder, strongish easterlies and a whole trainload of torrential rain, looks like it's gonna be overhead for as while. Time for a greenie!!

 

[MikeFisher]

that was a quick arrival on your side of the Isle, and it been just the first little portion.
here you can see what's coming from the East
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

since the short shower mid morning we stayed dry on the Eastshores, Sun is out since then for a great Beachtime.
since 10 minutes the wind here starts to push up(been completely calm after the short shower this morning)and by the Radar we have good chances to catch a bit of Water later on, but til now it looks like Punta Cana stays a bit North of it, the Southcoast is much closer of course.

how's the weather in La Romana, San Pedro, Boca Chica etc?

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Rain reaches now from the Leewards over the Virgins and Puerto Rico including portions of Hispaniola's South.
Skies over the southern Mona Channel are under heavy clouds, but PC is still dry and full sunny.
the prior gusty wind calmed down agin, but that can change one moment to an other quiet often during today and tonight.
looks still as if very most of the Water stays south of Punta Cana.
93L does not show any Surface Circulation, only the over all Spin/Rotation, no signs of development so far and I don't await significant Development before it had passed the DR.
for later on Deveopment is very likely, but depending on how close to bothering Land the System will be by that Time, as it is on a straight Westward Track which would bring it close to Central American Mountains around Honduras and furthermore over Yucatan.

keep da Keybords dry

Mike

 

[Anastacio]

Just gone mental up here in Jarabacoa, very low visibility (I can't see the town from the hill), very heavy (heavier than usual) rain, and thunder coming over now. Bright to the south and dark to the north, if that means anything!! Unfortunately I doubt it means anything dramatic up here, regular rainage, just a heavier than it has been. Never mind, one day we'll get a good one!

 

[MikeFisher]

by 3PM our 8mphr Easterly Breezw shifted within a few minutes to the South and gusted up hefty, bringing darkest clouds from the South over Cabeza de Toro, since a few minutes it is Rainin softly here, without much wind, a soft steady downpour.
Puerto Rican Radar Station is actually down as so often when hefty weather runs over there, so I can't see if this weather/Rain reaches only til here in Cabeza de Toro or if it is also over Bavaro, Macao, Uvero Alto etc.
the lil Storm is now Centered South of Us in the Caribbean Sea wandering on quick 15mphr East to West, so tomorrow morning we should be back to normal her on the East, it will have passed quick.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

already stopped again after less than 30 minutes.
wind is dead, skies are light grey, it is completely quiet now, no Palm Leaf moving here.

Mike

 

[Bryanell]

already stopped again after less than 30 minutes.
wind is dead, skies are light grey, it is completely quiet now, no Palm Leaf moving here.

Mike

Just arrived here in Los Cacis at 1630......so we are about 60 minutes behind you now!!

 

[MikeFisher]

yes, an good hour behind us should be about right, as the System moves quick on almost 20mphr East to West.
with the difference that I am in Punta Cana/Cabeza de Toro located more North, so I am on the Northern Border of the System's Rain, while Locations more South are closer to the System and most likely will receive more Rain.
right now while typing this we hear some Thunder in the Distance, out on Sea, coming in from the East now.
still Zero Wind but that will change when it comes closer.

Puerto Rican Radar Station is still down,
so we can watch only the Sat Shots, but they do not show exactly where the Rain starts and where it ends, not all cloudy areas are Rain.
and now the next sweep of Rain moves in, from the east, it starts raining again right at this Moment, wind is up right away with it.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

wow,
that's quiet a hefty Waterload trashing down here now, wind is blowing on a 20mphr easily.
Mike

 

[Olly]

Mike - you have a couple more hours of rain to come - so keep the key board dry!!

Olly

 

[MikeFisher]

hours of rain on the East?, No.
it lasted 15-20 minutes and been over as quick as it started, the Thunder we heard in the Distance came ashore more South, somewhere around Cabo Engano or the Airport I would guess.
we are again on Zero Wind for the approaching Sunset.

on the Sat Shots nothing of Development visible, it is still just a Rainy Area moving along the South.

how is the Capital?
How's Boca Chica, as I have to drive there tomorrow morning after a early morning Ride at before 7AM to Higuey.

Mike

 

[Hillbilly]

Rains in Santiago, on and off. Big dark clouds...from the South..

HB

 

[aarhus]

Santo Domingo

I also just rained for a short while here in the capital and got very windy for a moment. Mike do you keep track of how wam it has been compared to other years here in august ? What does the stats show ? Is it warmer than normal or the same ?

 

[MikeFisher]

just talked to a friend who been with his family visiting here today, they are on their way back to Higuey, passing Valle Gina now, and it is raining heavy there, I expect it to rain also in Higuey, will hear that when he calls to let me know that they arrived.

Mike

 

[Bryanell]

how is the Capital?
How's Boca Chica, as I have to drive there tomorrow morning after a early morning Ride at before 7AM to Higuey.

Mike

Just had half an hour of heavy rain, so look at what you've got and 45-60 minutes we're getting it here......tomorrow? Who knows??

 

[Ringo]

Thanks Mike.

In the Sousa area. A couple of showers today but nothing really. At this time looking at some gray skys with some thunder and lightening in the distance.

The Google Earth site radar shows a lot of activity over and to the south of P.R. with clouds starting to build over the D.R.. A couple of other systems to our east coming off of Africa moving west.

We might be in for some good sized thunder storms with some wind and rain?

Ringo

 

[MikeFisher]

we are in for a early started and long lasting Peak Season, right.
we have a real Line Up on the Highway.
93L is already here and there is One running around the 9th"N on 45"W and one on the 7th"N on 30"W and right behiond that South of the Cape Verde Islands one on 9"N/23"W.

None of them is awaited to get big or any dangerous during the next Days, but each hides the Powers to collect Moisture, pave the Highway and bring some Water to the Caribbean.
the bigger one of the 3 is by the Models still shown/expected to arrive at the Caribbean Islands as a Tropical Depression in the Progress of further Development early this weekend, but that's still a longshot, we just have to watch their Status once a Day during their several Days lasting Journey from Africa to here, and once they close in we have to watch them closely to see if we need to get ready for anything.

right now no danger for our Isle Visible, just for some Parts some Rain from 93L.

Yes, Google Earth shows nicely the overall Conditions, even often a few hours delayed, but it gives a good Idea about what is out there and what to await.

Mike