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hurricane season 2017
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Still don't see Irma turning north according to the 11pm update(?). That would place it about 60 miles off the north coast on it's current track. As long as it doen't come any closer, all I'm expecting is a rought ride, probably with still a lot of flooding that could easily be as much as we saw in Novermber, and a lot of trees and power lines down. I've been in 6 hurricanes - the strongest were Andrew and Wilma in Miami, and Hugo in San Juan. Really do not want to add a 7th to the list.
Don't really know where they get these high wave forecasts of 20+ feet from(?). During Hugo I was in the Howard Johnson's in Isla Verde only 150 meters from the beach. Wind was blowing directly onshore at 110 - 120 mph. Not sure what the storm surge was, but not more than 10 ft because that's how high the road is there and no water ever came across the street.
Same with Hurricane Andrew. It did have about an 18 foot storm surge, but the wind is just blowing too hard for big waves to form onshore anyways. Same with Wilma and I was on the beach about 3 hours before Hurricane David made landfall north of West Palm Beach.
Speaking of storm surge, storms surges are highest when they come in across relatively shallow waters like did Andrew over Biscayne Bay and Harvey in off the GOM. Coming in off the North Coast here where there is relatively deep water shouldn't produce too much storm surge except maybe in places like Cabarete Bay and Sosua Bay.
During Wilma, over 8000 power poles were were broken by wind or fallen trees. Some places in West Miami were w/o power for 6 weeks - and FPL is one of the best power co's in the US and we had crews from power companies in many other states streaming down to help.
I just want this thing to turn north soon. The closer it gets inside of 50 miles from the coast - the situation will deteriorate rapidly.. The infrastructure here is weak. All the north/south roads could be wiped out and we'd be isolated w/o power or supplies here on the North Coast for a long time.
The DR doesn'thave the resources to deal with a Cat 4 or maybe now even a Cat 5(?). Be prepared. A lot of good advice given in previous posts. Pray for a turn!
Don't really know where they get these high wave forecasts of 20+ feet from(?). During Hugo I was in the Howard Johnson's in Isla Verde only 150 meters from the beach. Wind was blowing directly onshore at 110 - 120 mph. Not sure what the storm surge was, but not more than 10 ft because that's how high the road is there and no water ever came across the street.
Same with Hurricane Andrew. It did have about an 18 foot storm surge, but the wind is just blowing too hard for big waves to form onshore anyways. Same with Wilma and I was on the beach about 3 hours before Hurricane David made landfall north of West Palm Beach.
Speaking of storm surge, storms surges are highest when they come in across relatively shallow waters like did Andrew over Biscayne Bay and Harvey in off the GOM. Coming in off the North Coast here where there is relatively deep water shouldn't produce too much storm surge except maybe in places like Cabarete Bay and Sosua Bay.
During Wilma, over 8000 power poles were were broken by wind or fallen trees. Some places in West Miami were w/o power for 6 weeks - and FPL is one of the best power co's in the US and we had crews from power companies in many other states streaming down to help.
I just want this thing to turn north soon. The closer it gets inside of 50 miles from the coast - the situation will deteriorate rapidly.. The infrastructure here is weak. All the north/south roads could be wiped out and we'd be isolated w/o power or supplies here on the North Coast for a long time.
The DR doesn'thave the resources to deal with a Cat 4 or maybe now even a Cat 5(?). Be prepared. A lot of good advice given in previous posts. Pray for a turn!
Not much to worry about.. The trajectory changed a few miles north.. Looks like we wont have it all that bad after all 
I just hope we get enough rain here in the south, because the south is in need of more rain and because i want things to change up a bit.. The weather has been very boring lately here in the capital, just heat, heat, heat and more heat.. A couple of rainy days wont hurt, of course, in moderation.
I just hope we get enough rain here in the south, because the south is in need of more rain and because i want things to change up a bit.. The weather has been very boring lately here in the capital, just heat, heat, heat and more heat.. A couple of rainy days wont hurt, of course, in moderation.
Looking at 5 AM NOAA . I don't see North at all . Says WEST ,at 16.6 N 57.0 W @ 14 MPH .Not much to worry about.. The trajectory changed a few miles north.. Looks like we wont have it all that bad after all
I just hope we get enough rain here in the south, because the south is in need of more rain and because i want things to change up a bit.. The weather has been very boring lately here in the capital, just heat, heat, heat and more heat.. A couple of rainy days wont hurt, of course, in moderation.
I'm surprised that COE hasn't yet issued any sort of formal watches/warnings for the DR. We all know that people here don't move too quickly unless consistently prodded to. The news reports that I have seen are few and amazingly subdued in their content.
The COE website wasn't much help either. I kind of shook my head when I read the limited info presented that finished up with the statement that the next statement would be issued at 1pm Tuesday almost 20 hours from when I was on the site. My cell usually receives a message when COE advises that it could rain. I'm beginning to think that quite possibly the officials are asleep at the switch or they have a reason to delay rousing the populous from its slumber.
The COE website wasn't much help either. I kind of shook my head when I read the limited info presented that finished up with the statement that the next statement would be issued at 1pm Tuesday almost 20 hours from when I was on the site. My cell usually receives a message when COE advises that it could rain. I'm beginning to think that quite possibly the officials are asleep at the switch or they have a reason to delay rousing the populous from its slumber.
Love your posts but I think you are wrong here. Puerto Rico slows them down, Pico Duarte steers them away so no direct hit. Either turns north or south. And yeah i have seen it for 17 years.
And this one seems to turn somewhat north also...
Stay safe.
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No idea who COE is but NOAA issued warning for Puerto Rico and so far watch for DR
So far DR has not issued warnings, it will most surely come later today. ( it is the countries officials that issues warnings, not NOA) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090514.shtml?cone#contents
Whether or not NOOA issues warnings, based on these advisories I would be concerned if I lived on North Coast of DR Hell, Florida is damm concerned, issuing State of emergency in entire state to allow mobilization of supplies etc http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090514.shtml?cone#contents
This is a very dangerous storm. My thoughts are for jstarebel who is going to be close to the eye and my friends in SKN who are already boarded up and locked down.
NHC 5am relevant points:
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W (still slight drift south)
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 16.6N 57.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
Recon and satellite fixes indicate that Irma is moving toward the
west or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is moving around the
periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which in fact is quite
strong at this time. This persistent pattern should keep Irma on a
general westward track for the next 24 hours, with a west-northwest
track thereafter. The guidance envelope and many of the ensemble
members of the GFS and the ECMWF models have shifted slightly
westward since the previous run. The NHC forecast also shifted
slightly westward, and it is on top of the multi-model consensus.
The confidence in the forecast beyond 3 days is lower, since the
guidance spreads out more.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, res
Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Track is still about 100km north of north coast and there is a gradual consensus towards the NHC track in the models from 2am. But the UKMet which is proving the good forecaster of this storm has many of its ensemble models impacting DR. It will be much clearer when the time the storm turns to the north later today as the NHC predicts. I pray for early advice from NHC later today of that turn to keep it far enough away from us.
For those on the north coast they should be completing their hurricane preparation in expectation of hurricane watches or warnings being issued today rather than tropical storm watches with tropical storm conditions being due within 48 hours. Don't be complacent we will likely get some very strong tropical storm force winds and even gusts to hurricane force, loads of rain and storm surge despite being on the normally weaker south side of the storm.
Assume the worst and hope for the best.
NHC 5am relevant points:
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W (still slight drift south)
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 16.6N 57.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
Recon and satellite fixes indicate that Irma is moving toward the
west or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is moving around the
periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which in fact is quite
strong at this time. This persistent pattern should keep Irma on a
general westward track for the next 24 hours, with a west-northwest
track thereafter. The guidance envelope and many of the ensemble
members of the GFS and the ECMWF models have shifted slightly
westward since the previous run. The NHC forecast also shifted
slightly westward, and it is on top of the multi-model consensus.
The confidence in the forecast beyond 3 days is lower, since the
guidance spreads out more.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, res
Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Track is still about 100km north of north coast and there is a gradual consensus towards the NHC track in the models from 2am. But the UKMet which is proving the good forecaster of this storm has many of its ensemble models impacting DR. It will be much clearer when the time the storm turns to the north later today as the NHC predicts. I pray for early advice from NHC later today of that turn to keep it far enough away from us.
For those on the north coast they should be completing their hurricane preparation in expectation of hurricane watches or warnings being issued today rather than tropical storm watches with tropical storm conditions being due within 48 hours. Don't be complacent we will likely get some very strong tropical storm force winds and even gusts to hurricane force, loads of rain and storm surge despite being on the normally weaker south side of the storm.
Assume the worst and hope for the best.
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Yep Dominican COE. Sorry for not being clear in the OP.
If as I suspect and POP_DR alludes to, the warnings come with their 1pm situational update today, it seems to me they are cutting it kind of close. I'm not suggesting that the DR declare a state of emergency 5 days in advance like Florida did yesterday but one would think that if Puerto Rico has watches and warnings posted, the least the DR could do is issue a storm watch notification to get the media interested and start the process of heating up the campo grapevine. This is shaping up to be the most significant weather event of the year so far and the near silence from officials is perplexing.
If as I suspect and POP_DR alludes to, the warnings come with their 1pm situational update today, it seems to me they are cutting it kind of close. I'm not suggesting that the DR declare a state of emergency 5 days in advance like Florida did yesterday but one would think that if Puerto Rico has watches and warnings posted, the least the DR could do is issue a storm watch notification to get the media interested and start the process of heating up the campo grapevine. This is shaping up to be the most significant weather event of the year so far and the near silence from officials is perplexing.
The satellite imagery is scary as all get out.
Definate eye and rolling in our direction.
As of yet, no right (Northward) turn...You know, this might be historically nasty storm.
HB,
It is probable that the Cibao Valley will not get any wind damage, but flooding along the Lower Yuna Basin is certainly a concern. That is San Francisco de Macoris eastwards all the way to Nagua.
I think if I lived in that area, I would really start making major preparations. Those of us in the Cibao had better prepare for blackouts and a lack of water.
Jus' sayin'...
Definate eye and rolling in our direction.
As of yet, no right (Northward) turn...You know, this might be historically nasty storm.
HB,
It is probable that the Cibao Valley will not get any wind damage, but flooding along the Lower Yuna Basin is certainly a concern. That is San Francisco de Macoris eastwards all the way to Nagua.
I think if I lived in that area, I would really start making major preparations. Those of us in the Cibao had better prepare for blackouts and a lack of water.
Jus' sayin'...
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