hurricane season 2017

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Natu

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Im not gonna stress too much about invest 96L. I stressed enough with Irma..

Lets just enjoy this weekends BBQ, pool parties, etc and forget about whats going on next week.

If anything comes our way, we just prepare for it and go on with our lives after its over. At the end of the day, we do live in a hurricane vulnerable part of the world, so its expected that we get impacted by one at least every 19 yrs o so (given that Georges was 19 years ago and David was 19 years prior to that).

Im honestly not worried at all.
 
caribmike

caribmike

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On windy.com three hours ago the system was "predicted" to be at Mike's very own door in Punta Cana on Wednesday 8 PM next week (that was the latest date / time where you could move forward to), now three hours later they place it on the same Wednesday next week at 10 PM hitting Puerto Rico in the Ponce area... (with the European model).

It is just to early to draw conclusions.
 
caribmike

caribmike

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And again on different ways at windy.... Nah, I wait for what Mike will say.

I am not an expert but it looks like it is travelling rather fast at 20 miles per hour and might not have time enough becoming too strong before (if) reaching DR.

What is your opinion Mike?
 
caribmike

caribmike

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15 mph slowing down.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined
center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm
watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg
 
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IslandDreaming

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May 5, 2007
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MikeFisher said:
quick udate on the Highway.

TD14 looks like a short term developer.
growing a couple days and then going down due bad pavement, wandering up to the graveyard then.

Disturbance2/Invest 96L is a Storm in the slow work.
it will need an other 24hrs and may take 48hrs to reach the Storm Status, slowly but coming.
this one has to be monitored, specially for the Leeward Islands again.
Tracking is at this point highly uncertain, as too many significant steering factors are shifting
with the forecasts for those factors ununited about timing and stranght of Fronts.
due that the Tracking Models are far from any agreement, it could be going to anywhere.

we will see if the forecasts for occuring/upcoming/outgoing steering influences get better agreed on during tomorrow.
for now it will bring the bad weather front most likely into the area of the Nortehrn Islands.

Mike

storm_96


btw,
that long runing Biach Jose is disturbing MY Weekend.
rain on and off since 45 minutes here, Thunder in the neighboru Bay/Bavaro Beach Bay to be heard all afternoon long.
the Radar shows that there is an other big portion of some kinda long rane away from Mommy SE Tail of Jose moving towards the SE of the Island the next long hours/tonight.
it is nothing dangerous, but who needs freakin' rain on such calm times?

Mike
Click to expand...

In all your experience with weather, have you ever seen a storm such as Jose make a complete 360o turn before?
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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weather is a Biach right now.

TS Lee has no good conditions and will not get strong, even should get down to a TD again in the next days,
but the steering could bring it close to the northern Islands as a waterdispenser.

but we have heavy conditions much closer than TS Lee.
we have a Low in the Eastern Caribbean Sea approaching us from the SE,
so for PC, YUma, Bayahibe etc some Thunder and rain is not out of the possibilities this weekend.

Storm number 15 is of most concern for now, even that nothing is sure on this one, yet.
conditions are not bad for development the next days, but it does not show a Center/no point of circulation.
so we could discuss if it is already a Storm or not.
for now we have to watch it closely, because it has the "potential" to become a Storm.
IF it get's organized with a Center to form it's TS activity around, then it could be a Hurricane before it arrives at the first Islands.
Steering for TD15 is bad for the Caribbean, this one could be a Runner over the Leewards and even approach PR or DR from the SE or at least wander along the S close.

really no reliable conditions forecasts for powers nor for steering, hence no agreement on Models.

we keep watching and may have to get ready quickly then Monday night for the Southern Leewards,
mid Wednesday Puerto Rico and shortly afterwards for the DR.
this one is Speeding forward on about 20Knots, it will come surprisingly Fast where ever it goes,
each change of direction will bring a new area within harms way quickly with few hours till approach.
if this get's organized and become's a Hurricane the powers will be concentrated on it's North.

Mike

wv-animated.gif
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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addy to abouve outlook from this afternoon:

windshear is in the high 30Knots range for TD15, that should be the main reason for not getting organized quickly.
the forecast looks the same bad on the further Path but has a short window of favorable below 10Knots windshear open once over the Leeward Islands. I see that too small/short for development, so there is hope that we are only talking about some Water of a TD, but there are many unsure factors involved.
as far as Tracking goes, the strong mid Atlantic High reaches with a 1016mb Pressure close to the Northern Caribbean.
that is a steering Ridge which will keep a weak Storm from moving Northwards,
so we should await it to keep a mostly W Tracking for the next days.

the actual Low in the Caribbean approaching the DR from the SE will already bring several araes Water in the dangerous range, TD15 would be just a bit behind and add up on what ever been received without any time for the grounds to get rid of the already received water.

Mike
 
SantiagoDR

SantiagoDR

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.. and there was another one a few years ago, don´t remember the name.

After it left the D.R. area and was North bound in the Atlantic, I flew to Florida.
It turned around and hit Florida.

I temember because of getting the effects of the hurricane twice.
 
caribmike

caribmike

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SantiagoDR said:
.. and there was another one a few years ago, don´t remember the name.

After it left the D.R. area and was North bound in the Atlantic, I flew to Florida.
It turned around and hit Florida.

I temember because of getting the effects of the hurricane twice.
Click to expand...

Be careful, it might be still behind you... :D

rainy_cloud.gif
 
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MiamiDRGuy

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May 19, 2013
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Tropical Storm Maria

This is the new storm but just beware, it's heading right to PR then to North Coast of DR, mostly likely 100% hit is Samana if the track remains same.

They said it'll be cat 1 when it arrives DR coast.

I'll be glad to provide all updates once it gets closer to PR and get you all informed.

Just in case, tracking: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/AL152017

Thanks!
 
caribmike

caribmike

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Irma 2 ??? I know Irma was a lot earlier a much stronger one, but the path looks so familiar... :mad:

Slightly more to the South than Irma. It looks almost like somebody is trying to hit all these little islands one after the others...

playing-marbles_2038071c.jpg
 
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D

DR Solar

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Nov 21, 2016
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WoW! Lots of talk.

I'll wait from Mr Fisher but would guess, given it's projected path, that this will get knocked down real fast as historical records show from our mountain effects of the PR and DR. Even the mighty Cat. 5 Irma 35 miles north of the DR was not nearly as bad as projected. And we are very thankful.

So I wait for Mr. Fisher and very much discard most of the many excited posts.

Thank you Mr. Fisher.
 
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