hurricane season 2017

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Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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Mike can you comment on this quote " there is

a PTC forming east of Trinidad and Tobago

(50 West 11 North) 06:00 a.m. (12/10/17)with;

Seas 9' feet

Winds 20 mph.

High-Top Rain for 75 - 100 miles from the center.


Is it a possible Philippe ?

Olly and the Team
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
Ophelia??
thats moving slowly towards the Azores, no a area that is shown on my "radius# of maps, lol.
we had the last 10 days a nice number of "normal" non violent Tropical Waves moving through,
which brought by My Taste the perfect weather conditions this week so far.
it is warm around 30C but not bothering hot/humid,
it is sunny most time with a very light cloud cover keeping the unwanted high intense part of the Sun Out.
showers are short and refreshing, winds on the low range, Offshore Sea is perfectly calm for fishing.
on my scale the conditions could not be any better here at any time of the year
to live comfy on a Beach and to fish out there, haha.

there is a wide area of disturbed weather East of the Islands/Off the NE-Shores of the SA Continent,
but so far it does not show significant activity and the NHC does not see it as a potentially developing area so far.
looks all good for an other warm but not too hot/humid Beach Weekend here on the East,
like we had it the last 2 weeks(since after the rains from 2nd last sunday).
the water on the Mainroad coming down from the Highway to Town does not dry up,
as the Magroves on both sides of the roads are still filled to the Top.
the little bit that driesaway during daytime, gest filled/replaced again due the typical short showers moving through day and night once in a while.

no dangers to spot so far, even the Expressway over the Saharan Desert looks quiet, a dry Air-Masses Shield is up over the Highwya right off the african West Coast, so we should stay fine for several days out.

we had a extremely intense Peak Season time frame this year,
it looks like the Season used already all it's shots and we may call it a day early this season.

it is Thursday Noon already/almost,
it is absolutely fine with me to call it a started long nice Weeeekend.

Mike
 

Chirimoya

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Dec 9, 2002
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It's almost 30 years to the day since the 1987 hurricane, which hit the south and southeast of England.
 

Celt202

Well-known member
May 22, 2004
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Great Storm of 1987

I guess they weren't as thorough in naming them then. I would suggest back naming that storm Hurricane Nigel.

Sadly as many of 22 people died in England, France and the channel islands.

The monitoring of such storms has improved by leaps and bounds since then.

We here on Dee Ah Won benefit from the brilliance of Mike Fisher who understands the effect of differing winds at different levels of the atmosphere among other sophisticated phenomena of dangerous storms..

He communicates this by taking the English level to places where it has never gone before. If you read what he says and don't get it entirely break away and come back later and the meaning will come through.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
absolutely nothing of concern to our sweet relaxed sunshine Island Life out there anywhere,
so just a lil weekend update to keep us up to date and the Topic not forgotten.

we have actually growing Cat3 Hurricane Ophelia and 7 tropical Waves on the Maps.
as shown on the image below, 5 waves left us already begind unharmed.
1 is actually located over the nortehrn Leeward Island, the little water amounts carried far out to it's East,
so it wil be nothing of concern for us Islanders, already curving out to the graveyard undeveloped when the wekend is done.
the 2nd one is located about 1000 miles East of the Windward Islands,
not running heavy/dangerous water amounts, not showing any activity at this moment,
should not become any concern for sweet Island Life.



here a shot from right now.
it shows that none of the still East of us 2 waves carries anything of concern in case of waterloads for our home soil.
the Yellow big Dot over the Eastern Caribbean Sea shows how dry the Atmoshere runs down there.
for the geographically challenged DR1'ers, lol, Hispañola is on the Top Left Corner of that shot.

Live-Recon_(saved--2017-10-14--21-00-35--UTC--Image-Quality-100-Percent).jpg

in short:
nothing to worry about and nothing in vicinity.
have a great weekend y'all

MIke
 

ljmesg

New member
Aug 6, 2017
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Mike, just read in DR1 Daily News a 40% chance of activity to our North becoming a tropical storm.

Any inpact here other than late afternoon showers?

Thank you.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
there is nothing out there we would need to watch out for.

today we have 4 waves on their usual Duty to carry moisture from the far E to the W.

1) is located somewhere around Bermuda, not of interest to us.
2) is located in the SW'ern Caribbean Sea.
this is the only Tropical Wave assiciated witha surface Low Pressure System.
it is very closeto Shore of the Central American Mainland and should come on Shore there during today
without any development, it is a small area.
3) it passed over the Windward Islands this morning and moves through the SE'ern Caribbean Sea.
no surface Low present to mingle with.
it could get attracted by the far Tail from "1)" and wander NW,
but doesn't look any strong or troublesome.
4) on the Southern Highway Lane, not associated with any Low,
a normal Tropical Wave that brings normal non violent moisture to South America.

none of the actual Tropical Waves needs to be observed by us Islanders.

over all, the Highway brought during the last couple days a nice wide Dry Shield up
and Windshear over All the Highway is nicely up on very violent Levels.
the Conditions out there overthe Highway will not allow any quick nor strong development of anything for several days to come, I don't think we will get anything significant up til after the next weekend.

watching the Expressway over Africa looks very dry for this time of the season.
i am not a follower/not checking stuff onthe far away Monsuns over Pakistan/India etc, where all that stuff originates before it comes close to our Highway, but i would guess that their Monsun Season been on the less wet scale compared other years, nothing to spot on a far distance anywhere there.

if it wouldn't be much too far before the official end of the season i would have called it a Season's End already since last weekend, because i do not find anything big anywhere that would be suspicious to reach Atlantic waters off the African Eastshores in a powerful way.

we keep watching every few days, in case something changes.
looks perfectly fine right now and for the next few days ahead.
looking further into the future is not worth the time spent and anyways too full of uncertainties to be reliable.

Mike
 

ljmesg

New member
Aug 6, 2017
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there is nothing out there we would need to watch out for.

today we have 4 waves on their usual Duty to carry moisture from the far E to the W.

1) is located somewhere around Bermuda, not of interest to us.
2) is located in the SW'ern Caribbean Sea.
this is the only Tropical Wave assiciated witha surface Low Pressure System.
it is very closeto Shore of the Central American Mainland and should come on Shore there during today
without any development, it is a small area.
3) it passed over the Windward Islands this morning and moves through the SE'ern Caribbean Sea.
no surface Low present to mingle with.
it could get attracted by the far Tail from "1)" and wander NW,
but doesn't look any strong or troublesome.
4) on the Southern Highway Lane, not associated with any Low,
a normal Tropical Wave that brings normal non violent moisture to South America.

none of the actual Tropical Waves needs to be observed by us Islanders.

over all, the Highway brought during the last couple days a nice wide Dry Shield up
and Windshear over All the Highway is nicely up on very violent Levels.
the Conditions out there overthe Highway will not allow any quick nor strong development of anything for several days to come, I don't think we will get anything significant up til after the next weekend.

watching the Expressway over Africa looks very dry for this time of the season.
i am not a follower/not checking stuff onthe far away Monsuns over Pakistan/India etc, where all that stuff originates before it comes close to our Highway, but i would guess that their Monsun Season been on the less wet scale compared other years, nothing to spot on a far distance anywhere there.

if it wouldn't be much too far before the official end of the season i would have called it a Season's End already since last weekend, because i do not find anything big anywhere that would be suspicious to reach Atlantic waters off the African Eastshores in a powerful way.

we keep watching every few days, in case something changes.
looks perfectly fine right now and for the next few days ahead.
looking further into the future is not worth the time spent and anyways too full of uncertainties to be reliable.

Mike
Thanks, Mike. Just checking. Buenos dias, senor!
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
just chiming in to show that the Topic is not forgotten.
nothing of any importance to report from the stormy front.

the only Tropical Wave associated with a Surface Low Pressure area is located in the SE'ern Caribbean Sea.
chance for anything to develop out of it are close to zero.
IF it does, it would be a slow northwards drifter, nothing that would bother our part of the Island.

the broad Tropical Wave mid Highway is like actually/since days all the Highway, under hostile windshear,
so for several days in advance we can not await anything from out there from the far East.
as i mentioned last wwekend or at the beginning of the week,
it looks like this hefty season came very early to an end for big ones out of the far East.

looks all fine for the week ahead.
have a great sunday y'all

Mike
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Thanks once again Mike. I have to see if I can get the wife to take a trip out your way for some greenies...

HB
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
Our Stormy Peak Time for the Island runs in general, specially for the East Shores,
from mid August til mid October.
this year mid september, always the prime time of the Season, provided 3 hefty weeks,
but then right away conditions went down hill over the highway end Sept/early Oct.
those conditions did not change since, the Tropical Highway is still not in any favor to support any Storm Development
and i do not await it to get any better for the remaining 4-6 weeks of the 2017 Season.
we had a hefty peak time, and we got a early finish.

nothing of concern anywhere out there.

Mike
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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A few years ago we ran out of names and started Alfa Beta Gamma......even at this time of the year.

We got to Phillip....that's 16 names tropical cyclones....indeed a busy year.

Cordially,

HB
 
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