yes, it grew a lot on size, specially towards it's stronger northern directions.
big beast.
Mike
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hurricane season 2017
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yes, it grew a lot on size, specially towards it's stronger northern directions.
big beast.
Mike
it is a Storm, not a she, lol.
it is slow moving and keeps it's high strength, despite struggling under it's absolutely non perfect construction.
since destroyed in PR over Land it never recovered.
the machines system is interrupted on many ends/points. no round closed Center and the windshear coming from the south west is injecting dryer air in bothering quanities, hence as i mentioned above, it is very large on size on it's nortehrn sides, specially the NE, but the SW looks dry and weak. Thunderstorm activity sent out to the SW just puffs into thin air, like some Magic let it disappear. such is most likely due dry air on that side and windshear blowing from that same SW towadrs the Storm.
due those struggles and the fact that it did not manage to rebuild a real closed Center, intensification is not very likely, at least not much and not quick, even that Maria runs over perfectly hot waters on a favorable forward speed.
It will continue over thosehot watertemps for the next 36hrs maybe 48hrs, then Maria reaches the Cold Wake of Jose.
Jose been up thereon very slow forwards speed, for a day even completely stationary, so it stirred up cold waters from the depths. the SST Maps show those cooler Surface Temps where Jose took a rest for a long while before it's remnants moved on.
as far as tracking goes the ridge ahead is forecasted to break.
that break would force the actually northwards moving Storm further to the West.
the airflow over the US Coast will not allow a Landfall, at least not under given and forecasted conditions,
but Maria has good chances to come very close to the Carolinas, striking distance for TS-Force winds over the Outer Banks there i give good chances for, as Maria is a large Storm running a large and still slowly growing windfield which send's out TS-Force over a long distance.
again, I don't believe it could manage against the airflow over the US Eastcoast to reach land,
it will do the typical curve N, NNE, NE and out on Sea then.
but i see it due the Eastward move of the High blocking it's Noth Track, forecasted bu the very reliable european model on such shifting conditions, drifting significantly West from the actual North Track,
coming as close as 150 miles to the Outer Banks, maybe a 100 miles only,
which would bring TS Force over there.
should not be the big danger, but you never know what changes on such tracking last minute and would shift a piece more here and there, it sure will be observed closely by the Carolinas the next couple days,
to maybe get ready for ****ty conditions on the outer banks and surroundings.
this year they seem all be so exceptionally long living.
look where Irma came from and how far it went, even deep into the US Mainland after it's many prior encounters with land.
and Jose, look how old this Storm is and how old it became and still was a Hurricane by then, hanging stationary so far up North off the US Coast for so long.
and now Maria, crossing all PR with it's core destroyed but continued as a Major Hurricane to smash on the DR, getting the inner completely taken apart again and messed around but leaveing that smack down as a Hurricane with 125mphr windforces and growing immense on size, still wandering as a Monster up there and expected to stay on for many more days to come.
they have this year some magic to get very old, to keep running no matter what the conditions or hits are.
Mike
calm and dry in Cabeza de Toro, cloudy tho.
like yesterday the Caterpilar is on Duty all day long digging boats out of the sand on the beach,
people are out from dawn til dusk taking seaweed away.
the water itself looks nice, but it was heavy loads up on the beach of course.
Maria continues it's way out northwards without threatening Land at this time,
but has to be vigilated the next few days by the Carolinas area,
as shifting currents could bring it further W than shown on the Forecast.
it would still not hit the Mainland, but could come into TS Distance for the Outer Banks Region.
Lee, which was down and dead, will also become an other of those long living 2017 Storms.
not threathening and, it is trapped under a ridge that does not allow it to continue the journey to Hurricanes Grave.
it should linger for days in the actual Area, circleing. an other one which will wander S again and come back on a W Course.
actually no dangers out there for our Isle for the next days, let's enjoy that break mid Season.
we have still many long weeks to go.
Mike
like yesterday the Caterpilar is on Duty all day long digging boats out of the sand on the beach,
people are out from dawn til dusk taking seaweed away.
the water itself looks nice, but it was heavy loads up on the beach of course.
Maria continues it's way out northwards without threatening Land at this time,
but has to be vigilated the next few days by the Carolinas area,
as shifting currents could bring it further W than shown on the Forecast.
it would still not hit the Mainland, but could come into TS Distance for the Outer Banks Region.
Lee, which was down and dead, will also become an other of those long living 2017 Storms.
not threathening and, it is trapped under a ridge that does not allow it to continue the journey to Hurricanes Grave.
it should linger for days in the actual Area, circleing. an other one which will wander S again and come back on a W Course.
actually no dangers out there for our Isle for the next days, let's enjoy that break mid Season.
we have still many long weeks to go.
Mike
DL says that lee can become a hurricane too:
https://www.diariolibre.com/noticia...e-semana-y-maria-se-aleja-de-tierra-KX8231792
is that so, mike?
https://www.diariolibre.com/noticia...e-semana-y-maria-se-aleja-de-tierra-KX8231792
is that so, mike?
yes, absolutely.
i think this morning i mentioned that.
don't recall, at the moment i look on the weather twice a day to see if something could come up,
other than that i have actually not much desire to look on maps and the computer at all, lol.
Lee is stationary, barely moving on a far north location.
up thereit will not strengthen significantly.
once te currents bring it a hundre miles plus further siuth and a healthy forward move sets in to not stirr cold waters,
it should easily rise the bar a few notches and reach Hurricane status.
it would then get cought by the Eaterlies, means moving W and then NW'wards.
such will not happen this weekend, Lee should be stuck for a couple days up there, co winds to blow it out of there.
Mike
i think this morning i mentioned that.
don't recall, at the moment i look on the weather twice a day to see if something could come up,
other than that i have actually not much desire to look on maps and the computer at all, lol.
Lee is stationary, barely moving on a far north location.
up thereit will not strengthen significantly.
once te currents bring it a hundre miles plus further siuth and a healthy forward move sets in to not stirr cold waters,
it should easily rise the bar a few notches and reach Hurricane status.
it would then get cought by the Eaterlies, means moving W and then NW'wards.
such will not happen this weekend, Lee should be stuck for a couple days up there, co winds to blow it out of there.
Mike
I know others have said it, but I would like to thank Mike again for his wonderful information and advice whenever we are threatened. This is by far the most reliable source for all of us living here and others concerned about the island. Thank you.
so here the overview about the activities over the Tropical and Western Atlantic and the Caribbean.
the High Pressure areas are located nicely,
so Maria will have it's Path to go N and then with the currents from the SW off the US NE and out on Sea.
it still can come close to the Outer Banks off the Carolinas due the very large windfield, a Landfall will not happen.
Lee is a small Hurricane trapped between the Ridges, bouncing back from the barriers on a actually SE Drift.
some more S it will hit again the Easterlies to be moved NW'wards but the High between Lee and Maria will not let it pass,
so tis one should turn again North and the due the weakening ridge on it's N finally have it's way oy to NW for bye bye.
our Tropical Highway is on it's Eastern half nice covered by a thick layer of dry Saharan Air/Sand,
which would actually bother development of anything coming up from the far East.
the wide area of clouds shown on the SE Highway just off the African coast
look like a normal Wave not in interaction with any disturbed weather,
one of thase many Waves which bring moistire from W to W without ambitions to gain Fame and names in History Books.
so far all looks fine for the next days to calm down .
Mike
the High Pressure areas are located nicely,
so Maria will have it's Path to go N and then with the currents from the SW off the US NE and out on Sea.
it still can come close to the Outer Banks off the Carolinas due the very large windfield, a Landfall will not happen.
Lee is a small Hurricane trapped between the Ridges, bouncing back from the barriers on a actually SE Drift.
some more S it will hit again the Easterlies to be moved NW'wards but the High between Lee and Maria will not let it pass,
so tis one should turn again North and the due the weakening ridge on it's N finally have it's way oy to NW for bye bye.
our Tropical Highway is on it's Eastern half nice covered by a thick layer of dry Saharan Air/Sand,
which would actually bother development of anything coming up from the far East.
the wide area of clouds shown on the SE Highway just off the African coast
look like a normal Wave not in interaction with any disturbed weather,
one of thase many Waves which bring moistire from W to W without ambitions to gain Fame and names in History Books.
so far all looks fine for the next days to calm down .
Mike
as always with the "Loops",
to see the full loop/picture you have to do a right-click with the mouse
and choose the option to open it in a new window.
it is due adjustments on the bord that they do not show up in their full size within a Posting.
I don't know why/how that happens,
if a Mod knows what i have to do different, I would be happy to learn and post the correctly.
Mike
to see the full loop/picture you have to do a right-click with the mouse
and choose the option to open it in a new window.
it is due adjustments on the bord that they do not show up in their full size within a Posting.
I don't know why/how that happens,
if a Mod knows what i have to do different, I would be happy to learn and post the correctly.
Mike
Within a post, it is limited, you can add link "URL" tags before or after the "IMG" tags that would allow the viewer the option to click on it for the full size image.
Hint: Click on "Reply with Quote" to see the following code.
Full size link
Within a post, it is limited, you can add link "URL" tags before or after the "IMG" tags that would allow the viewer the option to click on it for the full size image.
Hint: Click on "Reply with Quote" to see the following code.
Full size link
thanks.
to use links instead of the Loops/photos, I know.
Robert has to vamp up the page, so photos/loops get automatically Resized to fit on the screen/in the post without getting cut off.
Mike
nothing of any concern for us Islanders out there anywhere, just a naptime update for a good night's sleep.
this year Tracking forecasts are a fantastic toy, their accuracy improoved 3 leagues compared to prior Storms.
a big portion of that goes to the European Model which is spot on with the shifts and strengths and appearances and weakenings of the High and Low Pressure Ridges, the absolutely priority factors on Tracking.
Maria is on the awaited Track and will bring strong but undangerous conditions to the Carolina Shores.
the pushed surge of the declining Storm, loosing actually powers over cooler waters prepared by former Hurricane Jose and the last couple days even further cooled down by it's own large size(the northern outer bands of Maria did cool down the waters ahead of it's own Path, a suicide action for a Cyclone), that surge will decline from now on as the Storm goes down.
the windfield is still on a huge size, starting to reduce itself soon.
TS Winds are still a possibility for a short time frame for the Outer Banks, but nothing of a danger level should arrive there while Maria tracks north to catch the SW'erly currents off the US Coast and curve out NE to Hurricane's last lonesome walk.
Lee was still drifting southwards this evening, but that drift is over.
tonight will be a slow western move, then pushed NW by the Easterlies and forced to the same (as Maria's) NE last walk due the stable High Pressure Area located between the 2 Cyclones.
further we have actually 3 Tropical Waves moving our areas of interest.
1) did already pass our territory today and is now located SW of the S Haitian Peninsula, moving West.
2) stretches about 300-400 miles NE of the Leewards, mingling with the farest SE Tails Rests of Maria which are still hanging over and E of the Leeward Islands. nothing looks like trouble there, the little Thunderstorm activity it carries is on it's N and should not have powers nor conditions to start any action. it is not out of possibilities that it could bring minor rain tp PR around mid week and afterwards near Hispañiola, but most likely will pass further N without a cloud in the skies for us.
3) this is a newly one S of the Cape Verde Islands. it does not show any mingling with any disturbed weather, so by now it is just a normal tropical wave doing it's job to move moisture from E to W.
the Dry Air Shield over the Highway is moving quickly W at the moment, first parts already reaching the Windward Islands.
i like it more to be thick on the far East , to prevent that anythings starts to move.
for the days before the next weekend Africa shows 2 more Waves to pop out, one tomorow morning.
both move on the southern Lanes below the 10th N and the 1st one will hit into a fairly dry environment from the beginning, so even if it comes out as a active one it would be a struggling kind.
here's a shot of the Ridges positionings between and around the 2 actual Hurricanes from 8PM this evening,
didn't manage to cut</copy/size and paste the midnight shots, no need as we are not in harms way of Maria or Lee any more.
here's the 11PM Map of the SAL, the Saharan Dust dry air layer
no dangers to spot for us for the next days
'nite
Mike
this year Tracking forecasts are a fantastic toy, their accuracy improoved 3 leagues compared to prior Storms.
a big portion of that goes to the European Model which is spot on with the shifts and strengths and appearances and weakenings of the High and Low Pressure Ridges, the absolutely priority factors on Tracking.
Maria is on the awaited Track and will bring strong but undangerous conditions to the Carolina Shores.
the pushed surge of the declining Storm, loosing actually powers over cooler waters prepared by former Hurricane Jose and the last couple days even further cooled down by it's own large size(the northern outer bands of Maria did cool down the waters ahead of it's own Path, a suicide action for a Cyclone), that surge will decline from now on as the Storm goes down.
the windfield is still on a huge size, starting to reduce itself soon.
TS Winds are still a possibility for a short time frame for the Outer Banks, but nothing of a danger level should arrive there while Maria tracks north to catch the SW'erly currents off the US Coast and curve out NE to Hurricane's last lonesome walk.
Lee was still drifting southwards this evening, but that drift is over.
tonight will be a slow western move, then pushed NW by the Easterlies and forced to the same (as Maria's) NE last walk due the stable High Pressure Area located between the 2 Cyclones.
further we have actually 3 Tropical Waves moving our areas of interest.
1) did already pass our territory today and is now located SW of the S Haitian Peninsula, moving West.
2) stretches about 300-400 miles NE of the Leewards, mingling with the farest SE Tails Rests of Maria which are still hanging over and E of the Leeward Islands. nothing looks like trouble there, the little Thunderstorm activity it carries is on it's N and should not have powers nor conditions to start any action. it is not out of possibilities that it could bring minor rain tp PR around mid week and afterwards near Hispañiola, but most likely will pass further N without a cloud in the skies for us.
3) this is a newly one S of the Cape Verde Islands. it does not show any mingling with any disturbed weather, so by now it is just a normal tropical wave doing it's job to move moisture from E to W.
the Dry Air Shield over the Highway is moving quickly W at the moment, first parts already reaching the Windward Islands.
i like it more to be thick on the far East , to prevent that anythings starts to move.
for the days before the next weekend Africa shows 2 more Waves to pop out, one tomorow morning.
both move on the southern Lanes below the 10th N and the 1st one will hit into a fairly dry environment from the beginning, so even if it comes out as a active one it would be a struggling kind.
here's a shot of the Ridges positionings between and around the 2 actual Hurricanes from 8PM this evening,
didn't manage to cut</copy/size and paste the midnight shots, no need as we are not in harms way of Maria or Lee any more.
here's the 11PM Map of the SAL, the Saharan Dust dry air layer
no dangers to spot for us for the next days
'nite
Mike
Last edited:
just a lil update about the actual non-happenings over the windy Highway.
Maria is def a Chic,
first it wandered after Jose and now, that he run out of budget, it turned and will be on it's way after Lee, out of Human reach.
the Highway itself looks good so far, not very dry nor any high windshear til now,
but no active wave or disturbed weather area to spot so far,
so we should be good to enjoy the sweet Beach Life til after the weekend.
we have one strong Non-Stormy Tropical Wave actually over the Windward Islands.
itis not interacting with anything than itself, but it is very moisture loaded and covers a huge area as wide as the whole caribbean Sea, so starting later tomorrow we may get some clouds and/or even some showers while it wanders the Central Caribbean Sea from E to W.
looks all fine for us
Mike
Maria is def a Chic,
first it wandered after Jose and now, that he run out of budget, it turned and will be on it's way after Lee, out of Human reach.
the Highway itself looks good so far, not very dry nor any high windshear til now,
but no active wave or disturbed weather area to spot so far,
so we should be good to enjoy the sweet Beach Life til after the weekend.
we have one strong Non-Stormy Tropical Wave actually over the Windward Islands.
itis not interacting with anything than itself, but it is very moisture loaded and covers a huge area as wide as the whole caribbean Sea, so starting later tomorrow we may get some clouds and/or even some showers while it wanders the Central Caribbean Sea from E to W.
looks all fine for us
Mike
while there are no dangers out there to spot for our Island,
the yesterday mentioned Tropical Wave, which is a strong Waterload,
is located over the Virgin Islands and already raining over parts of Puerto Rico, where for sure nobody needs any more rainwater. many parts of the neighbour Island are still isolated form the rest, rarely any fuel available anywhere, alimentations for many parts are near zero. we bring tomorrow an other load of alimenations etc, all donations from Cap Cana, per Boat o Mayaguez, where Puerto Real is open to go in but without services, specially no diesel to fuel for the Channel Run back, so again the boat has to pack Diesel to the top before leaving Cap Cana. again we will bring people back whose Families in the USA arranged meeting point and time to get a ride.
I've been told that by this weekend the Ferry between San Juan and Santo Domingo will restart operations, but didn't get it confirmed, yet. the few we are in touch with on the West are in bad conditions and we have to assume that many many people there are completely uncommunicated and can not even tell what they need or arrange anything.
the USA is sending help in good quantities as it looks like, but what is completely missing seems to be the logistics to contribute stuff to the many isolated areas away from the Capital.
they urgently need a huge Coastguard Boat filled with alimentations and fuels to reach Puerto Real, so people can start from there to fuel their cars and work on getting connected. nobody had batteries or generator fuels for such a long time frame.
or send Helis to distribute the goodies from San Juan over the Island. PR is a small Island and it can be reached by Heli from other Islands easily, they need a airbridge to get the basics of alimentations distributed.
during this weekend we should ourselfs also get some rainclouds of this Tropical Wave,
it is not out of the possibilities that a slow moving Vaguada builds up and sticks til mid week over us here.
the Highway does not show any action at this moment, but it also show no protection in case a disturbed area pops up and connects with any of the numerous Tropical Waves on the move out there.
the dry air layer is thin and over wide parts non existent, Windshear is for most part on the very low scale.
Think of Puerto Rico, the neighbours need every good vibe sent their way.
Mike
the yesterday mentioned Tropical Wave, which is a strong Waterload,
is located over the Virgin Islands and already raining over parts of Puerto Rico, where for sure nobody needs any more rainwater. many parts of the neighbour Island are still isolated form the rest, rarely any fuel available anywhere, alimentations for many parts are near zero. we bring tomorrow an other load of alimenations etc, all donations from Cap Cana, per Boat o Mayaguez, where Puerto Real is open to go in but without services, specially no diesel to fuel for the Channel Run back, so again the boat has to pack Diesel to the top before leaving Cap Cana. again we will bring people back whose Families in the USA arranged meeting point and time to get a ride.
I've been told that by this weekend the Ferry between San Juan and Santo Domingo will restart operations, but didn't get it confirmed, yet. the few we are in touch with on the West are in bad conditions and we have to assume that many many people there are completely uncommunicated and can not even tell what they need or arrange anything.
the USA is sending help in good quantities as it looks like, but what is completely missing seems to be the logistics to contribute stuff to the many isolated areas away from the Capital.
they urgently need a huge Coastguard Boat filled with alimentations and fuels to reach Puerto Real, so people can start from there to fuel their cars and work on getting connected. nobody had batteries or generator fuels for such a long time frame.
or send Helis to distribute the goodies from San Juan over the Island. PR is a small Island and it can be reached by Heli from other Islands easily, they need a airbridge to get the basics of alimentations distributed.
during this weekend we should ourselfs also get some rainclouds of this Tropical Wave,
it is not out of the possibilities that a slow moving Vaguada builds up and sticks til mid week over us here.
the Highway does not show any action at this moment, but it also show no protection in case a disturbed area pops up and connects with any of the numerous Tropical Waves on the move out there.
the dry air layer is thin and over wide parts non existent, Windshear is for most part on the very low scale.
Think of Puerto Rico, the neighbours need every good vibe sent their way.
Mike
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