hurricane season 2017

[tmnyc]

If you can identify islands such as Barbuda and St Martin (which both saw the eye) on the map you will see that the width of hurricane force winds are wider on the north side of the track and equally the tropical storm force winds are wider north of the track.

If you continue this forward on the projected NHC track, it would seem unlikely Santo Domingo will get any tropical storm force sustained winds along with the bottom south west third of the country.

This is so because hurricanes consist of right and left semi-circles- The "Dangerous" and "Navigable Semicircles". The Dangerous Semicircle in the northern hemisphere is to the right of the storm's path. The leading portion of the dangerous semicircle is the Dangerous Quadrant.

Additionally, a hurricane's speed (speed of advance) is added to the wind speed (strength) e.g., a 100 mph hurricane moving at 15 mph would have a total effective windspeed of 115 mph in the "dangerous" quadrant.

 

[ju10prd]

I mentioned it earlier on, up above, stormcarib.com. They have a feature that guestimates closest point of approach, along with real time updates from people on some of the islands within the Caribbean. We all have our favorites, but this has always worked for me. Number one is by far NHC/NOAA of course.

Levi on Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ) has proven to be excellent at explaining by video what is and is likely to happen using NHC as a base.

His Wednesday evening update is equally fascinating (not sure if it has been posted?). The explanation in todays video that a pending eyewall replacement cycle suggested above PR in Irma could expand the extent of hurricane force winds whilst decreasing the highest winds for a short period. That could be a wildcard for us.

Always worth watching his update videos and today with Jose and Katia too, to understand in simply explained terms what is happening or may happen.

 

[ju10prd]

This is so because hurricanes consist of right and left semi-circles- The "Dangerous" and "Navigable Semicircles". The Dangerous Semicircle in the northern hemisphere is to the right of the storm's path. The leading portion of the dangerous semicircle is the Dangerous Quadrant.

Additionally, a hurricane's speed (speed of advance) is added to the wind speed (strength) e.g., a 100 mph hurricane moving at 15 mph would have a total effective windspeed of 115 mph in the "dangerous" quadrant.

Yes that is what we expect, but wind fields vary in storms and Irma is no normal storm. Take a look at the latest recon of flight level wind velocities:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-1511A-IRMA.png

Suggests there is some pretty serious stuff in other quadrants and that may be due to pending eye wall replacement cycle.

Again the recon. is indicating that at sea level the serious wind is more widely spread in NW, NE and SE quadrants and in this case there are many dangerous quadrants.

Thankfully for DR it appears at present the SE quadrant seems to have a lesser depth field of the more serious wind.

 

[mountainannie]

Amazing interactive map that show the wind pattern. You can move the map around and even zoom in and out.

Puerto Rico is being scraped by this hurricane.

Tomorrow is DR's turn.

https://www.windy.com/?17.947,-66.956,7

This one is of the waves in the sea:

https://www.windy.com/?waves,17.947,-66.956,7

Nals - I am fascinated by this graphic - but don't understand the numbers on the windspeed - what does that mean windspeed 180/58 kt ... 180 mph or kph makes sense but knots - as in nautical miles ? a knot is only 1.6 miles or something like that so I don't understand the second number.. explain, anyone?

 

[Robert]

Getting a database error on loading page 78, with two different browsers.  Can this get fixed please?

Working on it.

 

[Robert]

Getting a database error on loading page 78, with two different browsers.  Can this get fixed please?

Fixed.

 

[2020]

The US Weather channel now states storm surge along the DR north coast is expected to be 6 feet.
That's a crusher.

 

[tmnyc]

Nals - I am fascinated by this graphic - but don't understand the numbers on the windspeed - what does that mean windspeed 180/58 kt ... 180 mph or kph makes sense but knots - as in nautical miles ? a knot is only 1.6 miles or something like that so I don't understand the second number.. explain, anyone?

180 is the direction the wind is coming from, in this case 180° is south. One knot = 1.151 miles per hour

 

[2020]

If anyone can find a storm surge tracker for Hurricane Irma please post the link.

 

[Uzin]

Very very calm before the storm in Sosua, not a leaf is moving absolutely no wind, no cloud, a beautiful night so far - a bit hot and humid though. All the bars, restaurants and stores are closed, waiting for the inevitable.

I also went to the beach for a little dip this afternoon in the very calm water, again it was totally deserted, I mean, why not use it when you still can....

Good luck all, will report again tomorrow if there is power/internet....

 

[Robert]

Any updates from folks in Punta Cana?

All calm in PC as of 10PM local time.

 

[Robert]

10PM Positioning.
Irma Keeps climbing north by 1 point/0.1 Degrees per hour constantly
thats a nice WNW Headings as we need it to not get it any closer as ever forecasted.

...1000 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF IRMA PASSING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM AST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 66.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

Source: Mikes Marina

 

[Fulano2]

We are all in SD now, I am glad I made that decision frankly. We or a 12 th floor but still sitting on the terrace. Wind is getting definitly getting stronger.

 

[Robert]

11PM

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 66.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

Source: Mikes Marina

If this keeps up, you'll be doing just fine, fingers crossed

 

[2020]

ah, I'm losing my mind at this point. Got no work done today, checking the NOAA radar site, windy.com, Live webcams, etc.
I told my wife not to worry. Our home might be beachfront property when we wake up tomorrow.

 

[ju10prd]

The wind speed probabilities posted in the 11pm update with a track that has moved more east suggest this may become a non major wind event with virtually no possibility of hurricane force winds anywhere in DR and lowish probability of 50 knot winds anywhere in DR and low probability of any tropical storm force winds in the south.

Here's the 50 know graphic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030119.shtml?50wind120#wcontents

the hurricane one:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030119.shtml?hwind120#wcontents

and the ts one:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030119.shtml?tswind120#wcontents

Heres the rest:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Rain

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches




Unless there is a drastic change to the track I think those that are in the NC can relax a bit more......including WW.

 

[Robert]

Track update.



Click to open.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=18.4&lon=-64.5&wxstn=0&satellite=1&hur=1

 

[MiamiDRGuy]

CNN confirmed 900,000 lost power and 50,000 no water in Puerto Rico. as of 11pm EST.

 

[healimonster]

Yikes
77 mph winds in PUJ as of 11:30pm
Edit:
Sorry that's the temperature.

 

[Dolores1]

One would not know there is a hurricane coming this way. The sunsets were gorgeous on Wednesday evening, there was a humid hot air, but some breeze, too. Everyone is bunkered in, speaking for Santo Domingo. Not a car can be heard passing.
Thursday is a forced holiday, as all businesses that can are shutting down for the day, same for government. It's almost midnight, and hardly a breeze is felt.

We all feel relieved that Irma seems to be taking the NWN track as had been forecast.