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hurricane season 2017
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thats right with the bounce effect.
it's outcome depends on the angle the Storm's windfield hits on the Landmass.
it is not only high mountains that interfere, it is the missing Water under the belly of the storm at all, even that high mountains upper the effects of course and over a wider distance.
a Storm coming form the E and moving on a W-WNW Heading slightly drifting towards the PR southshores, would be pushed further W for a while before coming back on it's former WNW tracking.
such Storm would be a wanderer towrds the DR SE, like the Mouth of Yuma/Bayahibe/La Romana/Punta Cana.
Maria's Heading on approach of PR is awaited to be NW or WNW, a angle where such strong Storm does not bounce hard against it's running Heading, it would be more a straight walk over even over PR Terrain.
i await the Trend to continue with MAria coming mor to the East of PR instead of the actually shown Central,
on a WNW Heading, and that will keep it away from Us.
at least it will kepe dangerous Windforces away.
we may again get some electrifying long hours like at Irma's, will it move or will it not movr or will it move even closer or not?
but we will observe them just fine.
sure the Alerts will come out and if it doesn't move further North then the Evacuations of areas will take place again,
for the Flooding endangered areas the evacuations will anyways/sure take place.
we have still 2 more days to watch before it will be at the doorstep.
Mike
2AM update.
an other 5mphr windspeed gained on 90mphr now.
same 13mphr forward speed.
No change on Tracking.
that should be a Major Hurricane over the Leewards tomorrow.
time for a Nap
Mike
an other 5mphr windspeed gained on 90mphr now.
same 13mphr forward speed.
No change on Tracking.
that should be a Major Hurricane over the Leewards tomorrow.
time for a Nap
Mike
I think the northerly shift continues and even the infamous Windy using ECMWF now does not show a direct hit in PUJ but rather an eye a bit north west of PUJ, though touching Miches for a brief moment ... I hope the northerly track continues.
Does anybody know of websites that clearly show current up to date ECMWF model? The ECMWF website requires log in and I suppose a paid subscription along the way.
Does anybody know of websites that clearly show current up to date ECMWF model? The ECMWF website requires log in and I suppose a paid subscription along the way.
these guys keep up on stuff pretty well
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119209&start=640
no time for weather this morning, it's too beautiful outside to spend the day inside, lol.
just finished my coffee and haveto hit the road.
will take a look on Maria around Noon.
a quicky on the Data looks good, as the Tracking to stay north of us continues.
the Storm dropped 10mb central surface pressure, tho, it is intensifying quick while approaching the Islands.
Mike
just finished my coffee and haveto hit the road.
will take a look on Maria around Noon.
a quicky on the Data looks good, as the Tracking to stay north of us continues.
the Storm dropped 10mb central surface pressure, tho, it is intensifying quick while approaching the Islands.
Mike
The turn to the NW looks encouraging for us in POP/Sosua/Cabarete area if the track holds.
Having recently finished putting all the outdoor stuff back where it belongs after Irma I am not too pleased with having to move it all back into storage. Ignoring the possible north/south error factor in the current NHC track projection, it looks as if Maria could present wind conditions similar to Irma. Lots more leaves, branches, some trees knocked over and power lines dangling but I don't think wind strong enough to pick up the solid wood dining table on the terrace and carrying it off to Kansas.
I'll still move the all the stuff again pretty much because I have nothing else to do with my time and it is better to be safe than sorry. While the prospect of a nighttime arrival of Maria is causing me a bit of unease, I am increasingly optimistic that Maria will be far enough out to sea by the time she is adjacent to my part of the island so as to be just an inconvenience and not so much a big threat.
Things can change between now and Wednesday/Thursday. We'll have to wait and see.
Having recently finished putting all the outdoor stuff back where it belongs after Irma I am not too pleased with having to move it all back into storage. Ignoring the possible north/south error factor in the current NHC track projection, it looks as if Maria could present wind conditions similar to Irma. Lots more leaves, branches, some trees knocked over and power lines dangling but I don't think wind strong enough to pick up the solid wood dining table on the terrace and carrying it off to Kansas.
I'll still move the all the stuff again pretty much because I have nothing else to do with my time and it is better to be safe than sorry. While the prospect of a nighttime arrival of Maria is causing me a bit of unease, I am increasingly optimistic that Maria will be far enough out to sea by the time she is adjacent to my part of the island so as to be just an inconvenience and not so much a big threat.
Things can change between now and Wednesday/Thursday. We'll have to wait and see.
so far we should not worry a thing.
We just have to stay alert and ready to move in case of unexpected changes, as you never know what a Storm with a Female's Name will do, ya know.
since early last night we are moving out of harm's way, just a few downed trees and power lines are no harm to talk about or count.
by the actual looks from this morning's Data, still no 11AM updates this early,
we will very likely Not receive and TS-Force winds anywhere on this Island, and less a touch with the Eyewall.
Hurricane Powers do not extend out much on the S and SW of Maria,
so we would need to get a direct hit by the eyewall to receive Hurricane winds.
there are no indicators that any part of the DR would be in danger to get such Hit.
We are Pelota Country, Touchdowns are not our Game.
for the sake of many friends and family on PR I just hope it will turn further and miss PR completely,
as the Eastern PR is still right in the way of a expected Cat4 Walk Over.
it has to happpen today, correction to the N while and after walking over the Eastern Islands and again then when
coming towards the PR SE from the SE, bouncing itself northern drifting when 100 miles SE of PR.
Hurricane Maria is approaching for it's first touchdown now, some small Islands will sadly get a 2nd beat up by Mayor Hurricane Forces within such short time frame. i am pretty sure that they are completely evacuated this time, nobody left to be harmed, but their economies, almost solely depending on Tourism, are nuked for a long while.
here comes the coverage of the Water Vapor, rainloads nicely placed in the NE'ern and E'ern Quadrants.
by this moment it does not look any bad for us on this Isle.
a addy to the Timing:
this is not a event awaited for Thursday to start, here on the East and Samana etc it should already blow in the middle of Wednesday night, unless it slows down significantly more.
all the best for the Rest SE of our position.
Mike
We just have to stay alert and ready to move in case of unexpected changes, as you never know what a Storm with a Female's Name will do, ya know.
since early last night we are moving out of harm's way, just a few downed trees and power lines are no harm to talk about or count.
by the actual looks from this morning's Data, still no 11AM updates this early,
we will very likely Not receive and TS-Force winds anywhere on this Island, and less a touch with the Eyewall.
Hurricane Powers do not extend out much on the S and SW of Maria,
so we would need to get a direct hit by the eyewall to receive Hurricane winds.
there are no indicators that any part of the DR would be in danger to get such Hit.
We are Pelota Country, Touchdowns are not our Game.
for the sake of many friends and family on PR I just hope it will turn further and miss PR completely,
as the Eastern PR is still right in the way of a expected Cat4 Walk Over.
it has to happpen today, correction to the N while and after walking over the Eastern Islands and again then when
coming towards the PR SE from the SE, bouncing itself northern drifting when 100 miles SE of PR.
Hurricane Maria is approaching for it's first touchdown now, some small Islands will sadly get a 2nd beat up by Mayor Hurricane Forces within such short time frame. i am pretty sure that they are completely evacuated this time, nobody left to be harmed, but their economies, almost solely depending on Tourism, are nuked for a long while.
here comes the coverage of the Water Vapor, rainloads nicely placed in the NE'ern and E'ern Quadrants.
by this moment it does not look any bad for us on this Isle.
a addy to the Timing:
this is not a event awaited for Thursday to start, here on the East and Samana etc it should already blow in the middle of Wednesday night, unless it slows down significantly more.
all the best for the Rest SE of our position.
Mike
GFS latest very recent run has shifted more west to align with ECMWF which runs in an hour or so and the 5pm NHC bulletin will be interesting to see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...tl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091812&fh=6
It is animated so click the arrow at the top to see how it passes the DR
You can get the next ECMWF run at about 3pm on this same site (Levi's) under global models
The latest wind field data can also be found on the site from the latest hurricane hunter runs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...tl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091812&fh=6
It is animated so click the arrow at the top to see how it passes the DR
You can get the next ECMWF run at about 3pm on this same site (Levi's) under global models
The latest wind field data can also be found on the site from the latest hurricane hunter runs
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we will see a exact tracking later today once it left the Leewards.
then we will see from where and where it appraches PR.
the next changes then will happen when the winds touch PR Land.
so far it all looks good for a passing-by wave for a Hello.
Mike
then we will see from where and where it appraches PR.
the next changes then will happen when the winds touch PR Land.
so far it all looks good for a passing-by wave for a Hello.
Mike
the pressure drop stopped at max winds of 125mphr,
as Maria is approaching the Islands now.
during the reminder of today the further Tracking of Maria will be adjusted.
best follow up of the first Touchdowns is seen onthe Martinique/Guadaloupe Radars:
for us all looks still fine so far.
what i don't like is that the Windfield extended to the southern Quadrant,
so in PC we could get stronger winds after the Storm's eye already had passed it's closed point towards us.
but all that can change in the following many hours as it will be in touch with Land.
this evening we should see Maria's New Look.
I remember Irma's Haircut after it touched PR, with the W, SW and S cut of,
liekit would have bene in a Storm thatblew away it's former perfect haircut.
Mike
as Maria is approaching the Islands now.
during the reminder of today the further Tracking of Maria will be adjusted.
best follow up of the first Touchdowns is seen onthe Martinique/Guadaloupe Radars:
for us all looks still fine so far.
what i don't like is that the Windfield extended to the southern Quadrant,
so in PC we could get stronger winds after the Storm's eye already had passed it's closed point towards us.
but all that can change in the following many hours as it will be in touch with Land.
this evening we should see Maria's New Look.
I remember Irma's Haircut after it touched PR, with the W, SW and S cut of,
liekit would have bene in a Storm thatblew away it's former perfect haircut.
Mike
Darn,
my link above only shows a still Image.
here is the link to the radar combo site to follow it in real time.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
Mike
my link above only shows a still Image.
here is the link to the radar combo site to follow it in real time.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
Mike
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