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hurricane season 2017
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your plans always make sense and you will be fine in the St Thomas Mangroves Channels.
a Sailor get's ready and does not have to fear a Storm.
all that insurance and meds stuff sucks big time around the globe,
could write a book about my Father's way of insurances and treatments since he had his 1st heart attack by the age of 53.
Hey, my beloved ole Man will celebrate his 81st B-Day this September 24th
and when you ask him about insurances and Doctors he will lift you up that famous sticky finger.
he will be around for his 100th and mor for sure and tell 'em to go a f..ish themselfes, lol.
good luck to you, Buddy,
for St Thoma and neighbours i don't see a way to not get a rough ride due Irma.
Mike
Irma's outflow channels on the N show still dry air to be spit out,
but the Storm over all does not show any struggles any more,
it looks well constructed again, a powerful well organized machine.
after today there should not be any dry air left to slow down any further progress.
Irma is a perfect running Storm able to shut itself off from most outside influences.
windshear is a hard to calculate thing in this situation.
the winds up in the Strobosphere on the higehst levels, are the ones which push Irma southwards,
as they blow out of NE'erly directions, as opposed to our Trade Winds which blow from E-W.
so, to call for high windshear to fleder Irma a bit down on powers, would mean that a less strengthening or even downgoing Irma would be pushed straight into the Islands.
so in case of windshear i guess our best scenario would be to have the High Level Winds shut dow, which allows Irma to intensify without limits on any scale, but it would leave the Easterlies/Trade Winds as the only steering currents in the game and move Irma WNW to miss it all.
the final outcome will be a not so nice looking compromise.
Irma not strengthening to the max but still a highest Cat3 or low Cat4 Cyclone,
not moving straight over the whole Islandbelt and towards the SE of PR and furthermore on Hispañola
but over the NE'ernmost Leewards, extremely close to the E of PR and still very ery close along the DR Northshores
in a WNW'erly direction.
no sense for much predictions before the Turn in case of the DR, but we have to watch this very closely
and prepare our Minds that we may be forced to react drastically and very fast from one hour to the other,
which includes that some may be better of to simply run and leave their stuff(wifes, chicken, Bike, Boat) behind and just grab the important things(Daughter, Novia, Car, Cash and Beers) and ride to less unsafe grounds.
it is all speculation, as it did not have Turned, yet.
Mike
but the Storm over all does not show any struggles any more,
it looks well constructed again, a powerful well organized machine.
after today there should not be any dry air left to slow down any further progress.
Irma is a perfect running Storm able to shut itself off from most outside influences.
windshear is a hard to calculate thing in this situation.
the winds up in the Strobosphere on the higehst levels, are the ones which push Irma southwards,
as they blow out of NE'erly directions, as opposed to our Trade Winds which blow from E-W.
so, to call for high windshear to fleder Irma a bit down on powers, would mean that a less strengthening or even downgoing Irma would be pushed straight into the Islands.
so in case of windshear i guess our best scenario would be to have the High Level Winds shut dow, which allows Irma to intensify without limits on any scale, but it would leave the Easterlies/Trade Winds as the only steering currents in the game and move Irma WNW to miss it all.
the final outcome will be a not so nice looking compromise.
Irma not strengthening to the max but still a highest Cat3 or low Cat4 Cyclone,
not moving straight over the whole Islandbelt and towards the SE of PR and furthermore on Hispañola
but over the NE'ernmost Leewards, extremely close to the E of PR and still very ery close along the DR Northshores
in a WNW'erly direction.
no sense for much predictions before the Turn in case of the DR, but we have to watch this very closely
and prepare our Minds that we may be forced to react drastically and very fast from one hour to the other,
which includes that some may be better of to simply run and leave their stuff(wifes, chicken, Bike, Boat) behind and just grab the important things(Daughter, Novia, Car, Cash and Beers) and ride to less unsafe grounds.
it is all speculation, as it did not have Turned, yet.
Mike
Have ordered Gasoil and am wondering about my solar panels....
Not on site just now....
pushing my 'remote control' buttons
Not on site just now....
pushing my 'remote control' buttons
Following the latest HWRF run on weather underground blog:
Bad for the islands, my friends in SKN and I'm in contact because I set up the hurricane preparedness plan for a large project there and it is being implemented.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_26.png
and looking not so nice north of PR headed to DR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_32.png
and too close for comfort passing north of DR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_35.png
These are models so don't believe it yet, but the trend continues to south and west and we await the Euro run......
...any closer and everybody on the NC should worry
Bad for the islands, my friends in SKN and I'm in contact because I set up the hurricane preparedness plan for a large project there and it is being implemented.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_26.png
and looking not so nice north of PR headed to DR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_32.png
and too close for comfort passing north of DR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090312/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_35.png
These are models so don't believe it yet, but the trend continues to south and west and we await the Euro run......
...any closer and everybody on the NC should worry
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Am I reading Windy.com right ? 21 1/2 foot waves at 1 pm Thursday for Cabarete / Sosua ? 6.6 Metres .
the list of available shelters on dominican territory, as per COE:
http://www.coe.gob.do/index.php/albergues
you can track any warnings on their website (none so far).
http://www.coe.gob.do/index.php/albergues
you can track any warnings on their website (none so far).
such could even be higer if the storm surge hits at top times of the natural tide.
Mike
Thanks Mike . I am about 30 feet elevated and about 1500 yards from the beach . I'll be watching very closely . Thanks for the informative daily Info. MUCH appreciated .
Euro keeps the slightly more southerly tracking up to 72 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_4.png
jstarebel it looks like you could have a very rough time in the Virgins and lets hope for better news in the days ahead. The northern islands are probably going to get a pounding.
Too damn close to DR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090312/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_5.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_4.png
jstarebel it looks like you could have a very rough time in the Virgins and lets hope for better news in the days ahead. The northern islands are probably going to get a pounding.
Too damn close to DR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090312/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_5.png
you have a Surfer's Yard, lol.
once the directions of the storm are set you will find better Wave predictions.
the time of day/night when the storm surge starts to hit is the cruisal variable, as it makes a imense difference for the same storm surge to come in on a outgoing low tidal point or on a incoming peak point of a high tide.
Mike
the northern Island get ready for a hit, they are much too close to not prepare for the worst.
Mike
anybody with a fragile shoreline will have problems.
Some of the small cliffs along the shore aren't that durable/strong.
Some of the small cliffs along the shore aren't that durable/strong.
Just got back from doing a run at the supermarket. You can already see people are getting ready by the items in the carts. Lots of bottles of water, lots of people buying botellones, non perishables, etc. Figured I'd go before the last minute stampede starts. Got a few citronella candles and coils just in case there's no electricity for a few nights. Also strong large plastic bags (yard-type) in case I need to cover anything, extra food for the dogs... 95% of the stuff I'll use anyways over the next few weeks so not wasted money in my book.
I'm conflicted...
Part of me wants to be there ... part is glad I'm not
Like to be there to do the hunkering down myself....
Part of me wants to be there ... part is glad I'm not
Like to be there to do the hunkering down myself....
I know how you feel. Today had a long talk with our housekeeper about closing up the house properly, moving things inside, etc.
We're on high ground, uphill from the beach, but still.........
I just got back from Playero in Sosua. Was going to go tomorrow but had the time so did it today instead. Not very busy at the store. Lots of inventory, cashiers standing around talking, didn't see anyone but me scooping cans off the shelf. Irish cream on sale for $399... $451 last week. Put the cans back and bought booze instead...
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