hurricane season 2017

[william webster]

No turn means a hit ....

as I read it...

and no turn has been seen yet

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Here is one such prediction from NHS

follow the NHS bulletins, discussions and advisories. The wind speed is not going to drop according to them but will increase and the drift is to kick into north dr mid country.

 

[caribmike]

thats right.
if Irma forget's about the Turn, it will continue to wander westward into the Caribbean Sea right south of PR and the well known Neighbour Rock aside PR and then do it's Turn.
but we don't need a forecast for such, we don't need Irma on that otha side of the Isle.
Let it Turn.

aso for PC it looks like a quicky.
wednesday night starting to make myself comfy for some movies and drinkets, you have to take 'em as long as they are cold and while the fridge has power.
Thursday a day to not open any door or window, maybe once in a while a quick smoke on the small backside balcony, it is surrounded by other buildings, should be fine, maybe.
Friday depends who get's the Tail rains of Irma, shouldn't be nay bad winds involved, but possible to blow a bit.
Saturday should be a sure bet for a calm sunny Beach day.
a quicky.
if it doesn't slow down on forward speed this scenario is very very likely what we get on the southern part of the East.
the Sea level below 20ft will clean up from the illegal structures on some beaches, thats it.
the winds below 40knots will not do any harm to anybody as long as people stay Inside their choosen safe place.
i am pretty sure that we will be without electricity down here in lil Fisherman's Town, hopefully not for too many days.
the version for Punta Cana for a quick come-quick go fast moving Irma.
i don't wanna see any other kinda Irma.

Mike

If it makes its way into the caribbean, what is the likely scenario / impact for the DR then?

 

[MikeFisher]

Talking about rain quantity to receive. What can we expect on the NC ?? Like last fall when water was everywhere between Puerto Plata and Sabaneta de Yasica ?? Or are the soils and rivers be able to support it and digest it without vomiting it all over the place again ??? I want to know if I have to move some of the stuff upstairs ??

if you had water last Fall, then this time you should not move up teh stuff from downstairs one floor, move it up 2 floors, just to be safe to stay dry.
under the full rainbands of Irma the soil will support the downpur for the first 10-15 minutes,
all the other many hours will staple themselves on top of the grounds.

Mike

 

[reilleyp]

Talking about rain quantity to receive. What can we expect on the NC ?? Like last fall when water was everywhere between Puerto Plata and Sabaneta de Yasica ?? Or are the soils and rivers be able to support it and digest it without vomiting it all over the place again ??? I want to know if I have to move some of the stuff upstairs ??

Go to windy.com You can move around the cursor and some of the icons on the right, and then use the drop down box at your location for your local forecast. It will give you wave height, wind speed, wind gusts, rain amounts my day, etc. Tons of info once you learn the features and how to use it. Yes, move things upstairs.

 

[MikeFisher]

hold on a second. has the prediction shifted south now? i thought irma was going to swing further north but it looks like a closer hit now.

here's the 2PM Line.
if it changes, then it will change even furtehr South, very unlikely to get corrected towards the North.

 

[MikeFisher]

If it makes its way into the caribbean, what is the likely scenario / impact for the DR then?

a way into the caribbean would be te worst of all scenarios,
as there would be the high chance of taking PR or DR approaching from the SE towards the NW.
there are no estimates for such Tracking,
there would be nothing left to count after such Walk.
Let it Turn.

Mike

 

[Fulano2]

I wonder..how are neighbours in general talking about what is coming?
Mine:
Yo se nadar.. (Has a 8 month old baby)
Another one:
Me estoy preparando, ya compre una caja de extra viejo.
Another asking me if I really believed it would happen when I bought 8 botellones de agua.
"Agua y comida siempre hay".
He is very catholic so I said to think of the "parábola de las diez vírgenes de Jesus ". Que no venga donde mi. Hè was going to look it up.

 

[Dolores1]

Raining hard and fast in Santo Domingo. Thunderstorms and all. Rains are slanted to the west, showing something is wrong.

Rain was intense, but did not last long.

 

[Mauricio]

I wonder..how are neighbours in general talking about what is coming?
Mine:
Yo se nadar.. (Has a 8 month old baby)
Another one:
Me estoy preparando, ya compre una caja de extra viejo.
Another asking me if I really believed it would happen when I bought 8 botellones de agua.
"Agua y comida siempre hay".
He is very catholic so I said to think of the "parábola de las diez vírgenes de Jesus ". Que no venga donde mi. Hè was going to look it up.

Haha...!

 

[dv8]

here's the 2PM Line.
if it changes, then it will change even furtehr South, very unlikely to get corrected towards the North.

oh, frag it. not looking all that great, is it? will order more water botellones just in case. cars are full to thee brim, both gas bottles for cooking are full, pantry is stocked.

 

[MikeFisher]

Raining hard and fast in Santo Domingo. Thunderstorms and all. Rains are slanted to the west, showing something is wrong.

Rain was intense, but did not last long.

Funny, but right.
with all the dry clear skies between Irma and Haiti,
a lil Blob moved over the Capital area and an other stronger one over Puerto Rico.
here you see nice the dry conditions, to be approached by all those darn Colors of Irmas.

Mike

 

[ju10prd]

In times of an near approaching storm may I suggest to everybody to check in every three hours to the National Hurricane Centre http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

This is the source of all information used in the media and by governments and is a long standing body of the very best tropical weather professionals in the world who collate data from every possible source including the updated weather models and are currently flying recon. flights every few into the hurricane now collecting data.

Their next update with track and cone, storm watches and warnings issued, public advisories, projected impacts and wind speeds and more is at 5pm ET.

We have a potential 125 knot storm (144mph) very near to our North Shore according to them on Thursday and it would be much better not to speculate but to take heed of their expert information and advice.

Having been through one Cat 4 before and at present having driven up to Cabarete advising fellow workers on hurricane preparedness, my message is simple......keep checking what NHC tell you and act now.

Don't guess or second guess these horrendous life threatening things.

Safe is better than sorry.

 

[caribmike]

I guess our best bet now is hoping that it moves fast, not slowing down or getting stalled over DR.

 

[windeguy]

I guess our best bet now is hoping that it moves fast, not slowing down or getting stalled over DR.

Virtually no chance it will stall over the DR. What is in question is how close the center will come to the north shore of the DR.

As of this afternoon there was a 30% chance that hurricane force winds would hit the north coast. There is a near 100% chance of large waves. The amount of rainfall is also likely to be significant.

The latest cone seems to be showing a slight, but helpful for the DR and PR, turn northward:

 

[MikeFisher]

and it will turn now/duing the next hours.
Irma is steaming straight West on 16.7N.
on the 8PM update we should see it as The Turn.

Mike

 

[davetuna]

sheesh.........doing everything it is supposed to do...........now cat 4 .......

 

[MikeFisher]

btw,
The Turn is still on Time,
this will chnage the long range Path and bring Florida back into the Front Seat,
taking Cuba's Central North out of the List of TouchDown Scorers.
Samana will still stay on Eyeshot Distance for That View.

Mike

 

[ju10prd]

I guess our best bet now is hoping that it moves fast, not slowing down or getting stalled over DR.

The 5pm update from the National Hurricane Centre still does not show the main track over DR but to the north but damn close and the cone covers less of the country compared with earlier.

Relevant statements:

[I]Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Irma is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwestward late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward
Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

 

[MikeFisher]

sheesh.........doing everything it is supposed to do...........now cat 4 .......

lol,
you are right, Irma is a boring one, no surprised, no unexpected moves, just boring by the book.
darn, it will Azzkick by the book, lol.
it is shown on 130mphr max winds now, that's the maximum measured at the right side eyewall, the side away from our soil.
those winspeed numbers are very accurate, as the Hunters fly permanent missions into such Storm on such Track, it is under watch 24/7.
a 130mphr Max Speed shown on the actual 13mphr Forward Move
means as a standing/stalled Storm it would bring 117mphr of winds on all eyewall sides.
on "our" left side of the Storm, a touch with the eyewall would bring on 13mphr forward speed
a to be taken/blowing/active 104mphr Windforce.

Mike

 

[RV429]

I just saw that Puerto Rico and Florida have declared a state of emergency. A whole lot of people join you Mike in hoping for that turn!