2023 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

As the 2 systems popped up now this evening, just an update for this weekend and the coming week:
There is absolutely nothing brewing up which could be any danger for our Paradise Island.
Both Systems, with low development potential anyways, are located from where they could never reach anywhere near our soil.
We are all clear and safe for the whole week to come by the actual conditions.

Have a fantastic Sunday Eve everybody.

 

[MikeFisher]

Midweek look on our weather conditions.
I look up and get blinded by clear blue skies with a sunpower of all forces burning down on me.
Nothing new on the Eastern Front off the African Coast or on our Tropical Highway.
The 2 systems of disturbed weather did not get any organized so far, so they should be wandering WNW towards the Hurricane Graveyard without coming close to land anywhere.
The only one with "chances" to change directions towards the Caribbean, would be the westernmost one of the 2 systems,
as if it would get organized by the end of the week gaining some powers, then it's Heading would become a more W than WNW one.
But by the actually present and for the next days awaited conditions, it is very unlikely to see anything developing out of those.
For those in the Higuey Area,
this evening we will hang out on Hacienda Agani in La Otra Banda again, for a friend's BD BBQ

Cheers

 

[MikeFisher]

Quiet a line up on the Maps these days, we are surrounded by 4 active systems of disturbed weather tonight,
but so far nothing looks like it would bring any danger near our Paradise Island.
Disturbance number 1, 2 and 3 started all 3 their activity out of a trough that is stretching all along our highway between 10-12"N from E-W.
that trough is a fueling machine, it contains thunderstorm activity and high amounts of moisture, exactly what a real storm would need to grow up.
None of the Lows did interact very well with the bad weather systems so far, and only the one marked number 3 looks like it could manage to reach storm status/means become a TD. It is wander NWwards and will not come anywhere near the Caribbean.
#1 and #2 do not show enough thunderstorm activity to expect 'em to reach storm status.
What all 3 disturbed weather areas did all together and will continue to do, is sucking up our prior very nicely thick present Dry Air Masses in the mid atmosphere.
They clean up path and prepare pavement for what ever may come after them in the weeks to come.
#4 is a disturbed weather area right N of Hispañola, moving westward and harmless to ourself, it needs time to organize and better conditions to develop,
which it should find on its westward track N of Cuba, in the Florida Straight and if it stays alive, then in the Gulf of Mexico.
So while the actually running active systems of disturbed weather do not threaten our Soil,
they are now, just 3 weeks prior to the start of the Peak Season's most dangerous time frame, a not very good outlook, as they clean up the actually not very storm friendly conditions mid atmosphere.
Such long areas of moisture along the 12thN with a lineup of Surface Low Pressure Areas, as actually seen,
could in some weeks from now easily fill our Map with 3-4 brewing storms line ups at a time along the Highway, plus any activities North and also South in the Caribbean Sea.
As seen often enough in the Past, it is not about just numbers of storms popping up, to be dangerous they need to show up at the right place at the right time to be able to finally reach our surroundings, but with this year's high sea surface temperatures and a Highway getting cleaned up from Dry Air Masses, we can await to ride some weeks of interesting colorful "Dots" around us specially coming W from out there of the far E, for the Frame of mid September til mid October.

 

[william webster]

Thx Mike

That sounds worrisome.
If I understand, the current weather is clearing the path and making it easier for hurricanes to form.

Just what we don't want !!

 

[MikeFisher]

Yes, that's the actual trend/process, but so far those 3 out there alone could not clear it all, it would need a few more to run the same way shortly after 'em.
Nothing unusual for this time of the year, as we are just 3 weeks away from the start of the hottest time period for our season.
So worrisome? No, at this point nothing to worry about.
We enjoy our hot boiling skies, keep the BBQ running and the beers cold and in case of weather we just watch as usual.

 

[El Hijo de Manolo]

Thx Mike

That sounds worrisome.
If I understand, the current weather is clearing the path and making it easier for hurricanes to form.

Just what we don't want !!

 

[JD Jones]

Yes, that's the actual trend/process, but so far those 3 out there alone could not clear it all, it would need a few more to run the same way shortly after 'em.
Nothing unusual for this time of the year, as we are just 3 weeks away from the start of the hottest time period for our season.
So worrisome? No, at this point nothing to worry about.
We enjoy our hot boiling skies, keep the BBQ running and the beers cold and in case of weather we just watch as usual.

Not time to worry yet, but maybe time to keep an eye on what those 3 are doing. Thanks Mike.

 

[MikeFisher]

All 4 active disturbed weather areas look fine so far, as Hispañola is concerned.
The one with best chance to reach "storm status"/TD for a short time window is the 3rd, nearest Cabo Verde Islands.
The one which is on the Windward Islands today and moving into the Caribbean Sea, will not become a real "storm", I don't think it will even reach TD status.
As it is approaching the Caribbean over the Windwards, it will enter the SEern Caribbean Sea and wander from there WNWwards passing DR on the South.
Some nice rain would be the only thing to expect.
The middle one on the Highway has no real chances to become anything and will not reach the Caribbean anyways.
The System which was North of DR, is by now already out, located now North of Central Cuba, heading for the Florida Straight to move into the Gulf of Mexico.
For us here on the Island that means for this weekend we are nice and clear, nothing bad in vicinity.

Have a great weekend everybody.

 

[MikeFisher]

Chiming in, just so nobody shi.ts their pants because NOAA shows now 5 active systems on the Map.
We are all fine for this weekend and so far nothing on the outlook to worry about for even the whole next week to come.
The Only one coming "close"(not really close) to us is AL90, which is right now over the Windward Islands.
It is a wide area of disturbed weather bringing at this moment good rainfalls down on it's surroundings.
it will wander over the Windward Islands and cross the SEern and Central Caribbean Sea WNWwards, staying S of Hispañola.
No matter what surprising development would occure, it will be past us when ever such could happen.
By the actual wind shear and dry air mass conditions on it's way I do not give it much chances to become a TD, let alone more, while it wanders "near"(not really near to worry about) us.
All other "Dots" shown on NOAA weather maps are for us Islanders completely unimportant, we discard them and just have a perfect Caribbean Weekend.

 

[MikeFisher]

So now it looks like we may get our share of rain later this week.
I do not see the disturbance developing much, as the Wind Shear over the Caribbean Sea is very high and should keep everything down in case of wind forces,
but NOAA continues to promise a TD by mid week, when it is located S of Hispañola, turning North to wander straight over Hispañola from the Capital Northwards.
This will not be a full Storm, but it can bring a load of water, which itself hides many dangers for certain areas of the Island.
The Hurricane Hunters have a flight scheduled for this afternoon, I hope they really run it and do not cancel,
so later today we then will know how strong of a Low Center is out there.
TD6 East of the Leeward Islands looks weak and should not survive wind shear and dry air for long.
The 2 Easternmost Systems on the Highway are not headed towards the Caribbean, they are riding NW into the uninhabited Central Atlantic.
We should hear news about our weather front late afternoon/early evening today.

 

[MikeFisher]

The Hunters are in the AL90 System and we should get a good update by 5PM today, so we stay tuned.
So far, just by looking on estimates from Sat shots, it looks like a strong center, by now visible, fighting the high wind shear very well,
so we could see the next TS in the make, heading most likely for western Hispañola, West of St Dgo/Haiti.
But for more precise details, we have to wait til the data is in.

 

[william webster]

Thx Mike

 

[M4kintosh]

Chiming in, just so nobody shi.ts their pants because NOAA shows now 5 active systems on the Map.
We are all fine for this weekend and so far nothing on the outlook to worry about for even the whole next week to come.
The Only one coming "close"(not really close) to us is AL90, which is right now over the Windward Islands.
It is a wide area of disturbed weather bringing at this moment good rainfalls down on it's surroundings.
it will wander over the Windward Islands and cross the SEern and Central Caribbean Sea WNWwards, staying S of Hispañola.
No matter what surprising development would occure, it will be past us when ever such could happen.
By the actual wind shear and dry air mass conditions on it's way I do not give it much chances to become a TD, let alone more, while it wanders "near"(not really near to worry about) us.
All other "Dots" shown on NOAA weather maps are for us Islanders completely unimportant, we discard them and just have a perfect Caribbean Weekend.
View attachment 8236

And welcome to Franklin!
The newly tropical storm will hit Pedernales by 2PM on Tuesday. And by NOAA, it will cut the country in half by crossing south of Santiago and will end in Puerto Plata.

Projected trip: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

So, expect loads of rain. Just noticed via Twitter that John Morales, famous NBC weatherman, said that is expected up to 12" of rain just in the Southeast DR if lands by Tuesday afternoon.

Source:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693371468707492249

 

[MikeFisher]

We are in for a ride as it looks like.
Yes, the water load of such northwards moving TS will come down on it's east sides, so that will def be over our soil.
Lets get ready to bring the cattle in, prepare for a lot of heavy rain and on the track from Barahona through the Cibao to Puerto Plata for a strong windfield of TS Force.

 

[PCMike]

I thought 2 days ago you said we are in the clear?

This is why you don't try to sell an image. Neither you nor I are a meteorologist. We look at the same info that is out there for all to see. Not belittling you, but some here think you are in fact a meteorologist...that is simply not the case. Let's be honest.

 

[keepcoming]

Well, weather is unpredictable, changes one minute to the next. Everyone knows that. For example, and bit off topic... for 3 days we prepared for Hurricane Hillary (visiting my Mom), told we are going to get 3-5 inches of rain in our area. Guess what, I doubt we even got a 1/4 in of rain. Things changed literally in a matter of hours. You never know. Thanks to Mike, he keeps us updated the best he can. And does a damn good job of it.

 

[MikeFisher]

I thought 2 days ago you said we are in the clear?

This is why you don't try to sell an image. Neither you nor I are a meteorologist. We look at the same info that is out there for all to see. Not belittling you, but some here think you are in fact a meteorologist...that is simply not the case. Let's be honest.

What's your problem, running out of Rum this Sunday?
I never told anybody I would be a meteorologist, thats something in your foggy mind solely.
2 days ago I said we are fine for the weekend and I don't think that this AL90 would stand the high wind shear over the Caribbean Sea, so it would not become a Storm, but today we see that it stood all that and is a TS.
So what, a magic ball did not work?
I never claimed that I am always right on my observations and much less when it goes for a week in advance.
As we all know, for more than 2 days out we could never be sure on anything.
Call delivery, have a drink and the world will look fine again also for you.
It does here for us, sitting on the front porch of the Ranch and having nice conversations with good friends.
That is something Important, to have good friends to talk, lol.
Cheers.

 

[Auryn]

Thanks Mike for all you do.

 

[JD Jones]

And welcome to Franklin!
The newly tropical storm will hit Pedernales by 2PM on Tuesday. And by NOAA, it will cut the country in half by crossing south of Santiago and will end in Puerto Plata.

Projected trip: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

So, expect loads of rain. Just noticed via Twitter that John Morales, famous NBC weatherman, said that is expected up to 12" of rain just in the Southeast DR if lands by Tuesday afternoon.

Source:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693371468707492249

I'll say this, when was the last time anyone saw a tropical storm take a turn like that?

 

[Drake]

I'll say this, when was the last time anyone saw a tropical storm take a turn like that?

Hurricane David took exactly the same route in 1979 but that was CAT5