Hurricane can be much stronger now with the El Nino that we are experiencing. Climate change is something we should really take sriously.
- Thread starter Olly
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2015 Hurricane Season
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is there some sense in that sentence?
sorry, but i did not get what you wanna explain with it.
as for El Ni?o, it is exactly what protects us from getting storms too big/strong, so we love that event.
Climate change is something which should have been taken seriously some decades ago, to avoid to feel the consequences now that it's too late to reverse the last decades.
if fuel in the USA would cost double of todays cheapy prices, since a few decades, the Planet would have had a better chance to change it's stuff less speedy/drastically.
til now, climate change is not surely a mayor factor for todays storms, other than the fact that warmer sea surface temperatures assist already existing storms to develop better/quicker/stronger.
til now we did not have any significant storm all season long.
Mike
as awaited,
Tropical Storm Storm Grace is in the make.
if it ever get's a chance to become a hurricane, depends on it's Heading during this weekend and early next week.
on the southern lanes of the highway, close to 12"N, conditions are fantastic for a storm to develop for several days ahead of TD7's Track, with very warm SST's, Moistured Atmosphere and expected low-medium windshear.
on that route i can see it approaching the Islandbelt as a strong TS, wide on size, BUT on a WNW'erly tracking anyways to scratch the northern Islands.
IF the system of what so ever powers, keeps the southern lane towards the center of the Islandbelt, it will azzkicked to Stormy Heaven, as our high windshear shield is up like a unbeatable Barrier/boderwall with barbed wires and automatic storm shooting machine guns.
such systems, when approaching such violent roadblocks slowly, tend to drift away on a smoother run to less violent grounds.
hence the most reasonable outlook for TD7, by todays forecasted conditions,
is to wander westward during this weekend and gow on strength and size and powers into a TS Grace tomorrow.
coming closer to the Islands, the tracking will move more and more towards a WWNW'ern Heading,
maybe scratching the Northernmost Islands as the worst case,
more likely missing anything further NE of the Islands.
by mid week next week the forecasted trackings will give a much better idea,
as by now TD7 is a developing stormy system a full week away from our side of the big water.
nothing to worry or write home about at this moment,
and very likely nothing of any concern next week's weekend, at least not for our soil.
have a great weekend everyone,
that weather could not be any better for a great WEEEEKEND Warrior BBQ.
or, it could be a lil bit less hot, a few clouds in the skies would not be something to complain about, lol.
Mike
Tropical Storm Storm Grace is in the make.
if it ever get's a chance to become a hurricane, depends on it's Heading during this weekend and early next week.
on the southern lanes of the highway, close to 12"N, conditions are fantastic for a storm to develop for several days ahead of TD7's Track, with very warm SST's, Moistured Atmosphere and expected low-medium windshear.
on that route i can see it approaching the Islandbelt as a strong TS, wide on size, BUT on a WNW'erly tracking anyways to scratch the northern Islands.
IF the system of what so ever powers, keeps the southern lane towards the center of the Islandbelt, it will azzkicked to Stormy Heaven, as our high windshear shield is up like a unbeatable Barrier/boderwall with barbed wires and automatic storm shooting machine guns.
such systems, when approaching such violent roadblocks slowly, tend to drift away on a smoother run to less violent grounds.
hence the most reasonable outlook for TD7, by todays forecasted conditions,
is to wander westward during this weekend and gow on strength and size and powers into a TS Grace tomorrow.
coming closer to the Islands, the tracking will move more and more towards a WWNW'ern Heading,
maybe scratching the Northernmost Islands as the worst case,
more likely missing anything further NE of the Islands.
by mid week next week the forecasted trackings will give a much better idea,
as by now TD7 is a developing stormy system a full week away from our side of the big water.
nothing to worry or write home about at this moment,
and very likely nothing of any concern next week's weekend, at least not for our soil.
have a great weekend everyone,
that weather could not be any better for a great WEEEEKEND Warrior BBQ.
or, it could be a lil bit less hot, a few clouds in the skies would not be something to complain about, lol.
Mike
specially that Ni?o.
take care with those Ni?os at the school,
they really can become a wild hurricane within an eyeblink.
just experienced that on our 16 months old Ni?a,
she didn't like that my 4 year's ole girl rides on her bicycle on the veranda.
a full hurricane broke loose,
Katrina and Co are weak puzzies compared to such Ni?o/a.
Mike
Or climate change can make hurricanes less prevalent in certain areas like the Caribbean. It is still hard to predict the weather.
The drought in the DR is still a bad one.
T Storm Grace
We need to keep a watch on this one - the early track forecasts putting comming through the Northern Islands including DR.
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-07A/ctrack.html
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/tropical-storm-Grace?map=model
Olly and the Team
We need to keep a watch on this one - the early track forecasts putting comming through the Northern Islands including DR.
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-07A/ctrack.html
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/tropical-storm-Grace?map=model
Olly and the Team
Grace is just on it's awaited intensifying phase under perfect conditions.
the progress will go less quick soon.
a strong tropical storm, "maybe a lower edge Cat1! is the maximum Grace can reach on it's loooong journey.
it is already looking less organized now than it was this morning, i don't see a powerful storm breeding out there.
the 50thW is a barrier with harsh conditions only a strong system would survive, Grace is not such strong system and will start to show big struggles before crossing the 50thW.
doesn't matter if it brushes the northern Islands and stays even far enough south to come towards us, or if it takes the more likely northern path to just scratch the northernmost islands and misses us completely,
what ever will be left of it IF it would reach our soil, would not be of concern.
the defense shield is located far east,
starting harsh anti cyclone conditions over 650nmls east of the Island Belt,
over 1.000nmls east of my home/the DR's Easternmost Tip.
we watch it's progress of course, but what ever powers it may have reached late monday/during tuesday,
will be the max and coming closer to the 50thW those powers will be close enough to DR acustoms to get a "power-out", blending in to our local habbits.
Mike
the progress will go less quick soon.
a strong tropical storm, "maybe a lower edge Cat1! is the maximum Grace can reach on it's loooong journey.
it is already looking less organized now than it was this morning, i don't see a powerful storm breeding out there.
the 50thW is a barrier with harsh conditions only a strong system would survive, Grace is not such strong system and will start to show big struggles before crossing the 50thW.
doesn't matter if it brushes the northern Islands and stays even far enough south to come towards us, or if it takes the more likely northern path to just scratch the northernmost islands and misses us completely,
what ever will be left of it IF it would reach our soil, would not be of concern.
the defense shield is located far east,
starting harsh anti cyclone conditions over 650nmls east of the Island Belt,
over 1.000nmls east of my home/the DR's Easternmost Tip.
we watch it's progress of course, but what ever powers it may have reached late monday/during tuesday,
will be the max and coming closer to the 50thW those powers will be close enough to DR acustoms to get a "power-out", blending in to our local habbits.
Mike
nothing special happened to Grace during last night.
it is not a well defined storm,
no indicators of any quick intensification into a dangerzone.
and that's now while it runs under the best conditions a brewing storm could find on the highway.
it does not contain heaviest waterloads nor concentrated powerful thunderstorm areas.
my best guess is that the W and NW located dryer air, even not the thickest of dry airmasses, is sufficient to bother and slow development.
Grace will not become a big/powerful storm to worry about, not anywhere East of our hometurf.
here is a look in it's wet/dry contains and surroundings
here you get a look on the not well centered piece of storm
here you see the locations of the windforces, which do not show any scary concentrations in any quadrant at all
Mike
it is not a well defined storm,
no indicators of any quick intensification into a dangerzone.
and that's now while it runs under the best conditions a brewing storm could find on the highway.
it does not contain heaviest waterloads nor concentrated powerful thunderstorm areas.
my best guess is that the W and NW located dryer air, even not the thickest of dry airmasses, is sufficient to bother and slow development.
Grace will not become a big/powerful storm to worry about, not anywhere East of our hometurf.
here is a look in it's wet/dry contains and surroundings
here you get a look on the not well centered piece of storm
here you see the locations of the windforces, which do not show any scary concentrations in any quadrant at all
Mike
Thanks from my window panes, Mike!
lol.
as you seem to have really big windows and live on a higher floor,
it may be a good idea to cut some playwood on the right size with a easy to put on Mount.
of course only if you have a place to store that wood year around, to be handy when you need it.
Mike
that tracking can change a lot the next days/week.
looks far from getting a cvhance to become a hurricane, even not out of the possibilities.
i tend to see a simple cloudmass/Tropical Depression coming near the Islands,
IF it wanders all the way mostly West.
the tracking models we have to check every day to see what their new "idea" is all about,
you should only give consideration to the shown model tracks for the next 48hrs,
all shown lines and dots for after the next 48hrs are highly unreliable, specially on such weak system.
Mike
I could store them yes, but no way to board these windows, access would only be possible from outside with a ladder reaching the 4th floor
... Professional help would be required. Couldn't do that every time a storm approaches...Window is like 4 meters wide and height from floor to ceiling approx. 2,50 meters divided in three sliding panes.
Yeah, I get it.. I use weather underground for my info, and appreciate seeing your NOAA stuff. IMO, this is as you said a weak storm that still has to go through the same wind shear and Sahara dust before reaching the Leeward Islands and has very little chance for developing into something larger. However, funny thing about tropical storms is that they can sometimes do the unthinkable (wrong way Lenny) for one and as a boat owner, well lets just say that she can't fend for herself so I have to. I'd rather not do the storm set up thing, but the one time you "THINK" that it will be ok is when you will lose your boat.
thats of course right.
i have myself most of my assetts swimming in the water,
so watching is a simple basic all around the year, specially this time of the year,
only one stu moment would be "life changing",
and the basic rule is of course:
better prepared/seeked shelter a thousand times for a now show
than laughed about One who kicks your azz for life.
Mike
I could store them yes, but no way to board these windows, access would only be possible from outside with a ladder reaching the 4th floor
Window is like 4 meters wide and height from floor to ceiling approx. 2,50 meters divided in three sliding panes.
uuffff.
sounds like a fancy modern construction, lol.
IF you have to bring up any kind of window protection for a place with no 2nd way out,
you need to leave a lil removable hole which allows you to open and slip thru to get the whole stuff opened afterwards(and to reach inside your place after you brought the protector up, lol).
Mike
TS Grace passed it's peak time and is already on a downward trend,
and the storm did not even reach 40"W, yet.
if anything of it reaches the Island belt, it will not be something to write home about.
a TD arriving there would be a surprisingly strong system.
of course we follow up on it, but nothing to worry about this one for anyone/any location.
Mike
and the storm did not even reach 40"W, yet.
if anything of it reaches the Island belt, it will not be something to write home about.
a TD arriving there would be a surprisingly strong system.
of course we follow up on it, but nothing to worry about this one for anyone/any location.
Mike
the evening update still shows 40 knots windforce on Grace,
i doubt that it contains any area with real constant Tropical Storm Force Winds.
the view on the storm shows barely any Thunderstorm Areas.
right now there are 2, but not areas, it is 2 lil "spots".
one on the NW of the center, where windshear pushes anything of a storm away and provides it with dry air.
and one very little area/spot on the SSE, far away from the Center, and anyways of a size, well, lets say if it would move right ove my head here to blow some Breeze, my neighbours half mile up or down the beach would not recognize that any palm leaf moves a thing.
it's done.
the nighthrs provide the "best possible" conditions for a push up/development,
what ever happens during tinight, will be loooong history by breakfast tomorrow morning.
Mike
i doubt that it contains any area with real constant Tropical Storm Force Winds.
the view on the storm shows barely any Thunderstorm Areas.
right now there are 2, but not areas, it is 2 lil "spots".
one on the NW of the center, where windshear pushes anything of a storm away and provides it with dry air.
and one very little area/spot on the SSE, far away from the Center, and anyways of a size, well, lets say if it would move right ove my head here to blow some Breeze, my neighbours half mile up or down the beach would not recognize that any palm leaf moves a thing.
it's done.
the nighthrs provide the "best possible" conditions for a push up/development,
what ever happens during tinight, will be loooong history by breakfast tomorrow morning.
Mike
still more than 1.000 miles to go to reach the Lesser Antilles,
Grace looks not as anything scaring or such,
and keeps going downwards.
i doubt there will be anything with a name reach any of the Islands.
it did not even start to touch the way more hostile conditions closer to the Islands.
Mike
Grace looks not as anything scaring or such,
and keeps going downwards.
i doubt there will be anything with a name reach any of the Islands.
it did not even start to touch the way more hostile conditions closer to the Islands.
Mike
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