- Thread starter Olly
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2019 Hurricane Season
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=
It has to pass a dense Saharan SAL saturated atmosphere.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Windshear shows a smooth path for Dorian on the final few hundred miles approaching the Antilles and the same for the eastern caribbean Sea.
So we will see this coming week how it can gain powers or how it gets bothered once a hurricane with dry airmasses injected.
The prognosted path is stil a high uncertain one, it will depend how quick and how strong the system gains powers the next 48hrs.
It could be a hurricane of small size when arriving at the outer islands, it could also be a struggling small TS to get knocked hard when touching the outer islands.
A strong running hurricane should run more westward, missing us close on our south, but i doubt this will become a strong fueling machine reaching high enough up into the atmosphere, so a bad fueled storm towards our south central is more likely, or a power decreasing system after touch with the outer islands steer way more NW towards PR.
There is everything possible, no clear picture to be seen.
It has to pass a dense Saharan SAL saturated atmosphere.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Windshear shows a smooth path for Dorian on the final few hundred miles approaching the Antilles and the same for the eastern caribbean Sea.
So we will see this coming week how it can gain powers or how it gets bothered once a hurricane with dry airmasses injected.
The prognosted path is stil a high uncertain one, it will depend how quick and how strong the system gains powers the next 48hrs.
It could be a hurricane of small size when arriving at the outer islands, it could also be a struggling small TS to get knocked hard when touching the outer islands.
A strong running hurricane should run more westward, missing us close on our south, but i doubt this will become a strong fueling machine reaching high enough up into the atmosphere, so a bad fueled storm towards our south central is more likely, or a power decreasing system after touch with the outer islands steer way more NW towards PR.
There is everything possible, no clear picture to be seen.
First storm of the year that has a potential to impact the islands. Predictions of 13 storms this season, if true, means this and 8 more to come over the next 3 months. The DR has been fortunate over the past three years. A couple of close calls but nothing serious for us. The same cannot be said for PR, the USVI and elsewhere.
Now is a good time to review plans and preparations so - You know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em and know when to run away (and where you are going to run to) if need be.
Now is a good time to review plans and preparations so - You know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em and know when to run away (and where you are going to run to) if need be.
Yes,
By the way the conditions started to calm down the last couple weeks, conditions will be very favorable for storm development from mid september for a estimated 6 loooong weeks, a very long time period for our area and all the highway east of the antilles.
Maybe there will only be 8 more to form in the whole atlantic basin, BUT my point is that those popping up, where ever that may be, have highest chances to become strong and bad, where ever they form or head to.
We will not get bored and late september and october storms should be expected to grow quicker and on the heavier weight class than Dorian.
And of course by now, end august, everybody should have his/her hurricane plans A and B figured out and necessary utensiles handy.
View attachment 3144
This is the actually calculated final tracking line for Dorian, it would be a first landfall at Palmilla Beach north of the Saona Island Mangroves Channel and right afterwards a 2nd landfall in La Romana.
No panic, this is just the line drawn at this moment, with a lot of points uncertain.
This is the actually calculated final tracking line for Dorian, it would be a first landfall at Palmilla Beach north of the Saona Island Mangroves Channel and right afterwards a 2nd landfall in La Romana.
No panic, this is just the line drawn at this moment, with a lot of points uncertain.
Can I suggest that people maintain communication here, instead of Whatsapp, unless or until there is a problem with DR1. Mike is the expert, in my experience his predictions have always been 100% right, and it isn't fair to expect him to spend more of his free time responding to a Whatsapp group as well as posting here.
Looking at NHC tracking today little Dorian is heading straight for Santo Domingo. Yes I know it's early days.
Looking at NHC tracking today little Dorian is heading straight for Santo Domingo. Yes I know it's early days.
Dorian is a extreme small sized storm, its winds reach less than 25 miles out of the center.
This size makes predictions very difficult, as such small systems are very prone to slightest influences/conditions changes. They can gain windpowers very quick but the same time a slight water temp drop can knock down such fragile system quickly, too.
We have sufficient dry air out there to bother a big storm from forming nice and growing quick, but a very small TS as Dorian should very likely be sealed off and not get bothered by that.
The heat content of the hot waters in the caribbean sea is very high, so a intensification once past the outer islands is very likely.
But i dont see Dorian to reach Hurricane strength.
The touch with the Islands will bother this small storm, it will weaken. Once in the caribbean sea the hot conditions keep it alive and gain strength again.
Maybe even for some hours hurricane strength, but not for long. It has just a 48hrs window from now before it will face medium windshear over the eastern caribbean sea, and that will keep such weak storm in its boundaries.
As far as tracking goes the models are still the same uncertain as they are on the power forecasts.
I dont see it coming close to Puerto Rico with its center, it is still walking straight West and should pass PR 150 miles South, pointing towards the Barahona Peninsula/SW Haiti, missing our DR East and South.
The tracking models will correct today and tomorrow the shown path by each run.
Compare this picture to the one i posted yesterday and you will already see such correction on the tracking forecasts.
View attachment 3145
At this momemt:
I see a small sized TS for the central Antilles, regaining for a short time powers over the eastern caribbean sea to become a upper scale but very small TS or even for a shortest time a weak Cat1 Cyclone, weakening quickly by tuesday. It will stay far south of PR and it will miss DR in a close but safe distance South.
Waters are carried on the north side of the storm, so PR and DR have chances to get some needed rainfalls during the quick bypass.
We have to watch it permanently of course, as drastic changes on such things are always a possibility, but by the actual look i dont see us in danger for wild times, with our SW to be the DR area with the highest danger risk.
This size makes predictions very difficult, as such small systems are very prone to slightest influences/conditions changes. They can gain windpowers very quick but the same time a slight water temp drop can knock down such fragile system quickly, too.
We have sufficient dry air out there to bother a big storm from forming nice and growing quick, but a very small TS as Dorian should very likely be sealed off and not get bothered by that.
The heat content of the hot waters in the caribbean sea is very high, so a intensification once past the outer islands is very likely.
But i dont see Dorian to reach Hurricane strength.
The touch with the Islands will bother this small storm, it will weaken. Once in the caribbean sea the hot conditions keep it alive and gain strength again.
Maybe even for some hours hurricane strength, but not for long. It has just a 48hrs window from now before it will face medium windshear over the eastern caribbean sea, and that will keep such weak storm in its boundaries.
As far as tracking goes the models are still the same uncertain as they are on the power forecasts.
I dont see it coming close to Puerto Rico with its center, it is still walking straight West and should pass PR 150 miles South, pointing towards the Barahona Peninsula/SW Haiti, missing our DR East and South.
The tracking models will correct today and tomorrow the shown path by each run.
Compare this picture to the one i posted yesterday and you will already see such correction on the tracking forecasts.
View attachment 3145
At this momemt:
I see a small sized TS for the central Antilles, regaining for a short time powers over the eastern caribbean sea to become a upper scale but very small TS or even for a shortest time a weak Cat1 Cyclone, weakening quickly by tuesday. It will stay far south of PR and it will miss DR in a close but safe distance South.
Waters are carried on the north side of the storm, so PR and DR have chances to get some needed rainfalls during the quick bypass.
We have to watch it permanently of course, as drastic changes on such things are always a possibility, but by the actual look i dont see us in danger for wild times, with our SW to be the DR area with the highest danger risk.
This PR meteorological organization says on their FB posts the storm had slightly gained powers and have been gaining the battle over Sahara dry air. It's also forming more circle.
https://m.facebook.com/CMGCaribe/
Opinions?
https://m.facebook.com/CMGCaribe/
Opinions?
Around tuesday morning, after it passex the Islands, we will get reliable forecasts.
During today no surprises happened.
Dorian dropped central pressure by 5mb to 1003mb,
So its windspeed slightly incr3ased to 50mphr as max sustained winds, present only in a very small area on its northern side.
It has til arrival over the islands to intensify and grow, then we have to see how the impact influences the storm. From there on it has only 10-15 hrs to intensify again over the very favorable hot eastern caribbean sea, then the higher level windshear should start to stop the increase of powers.
The exact heading then depends on the real present powers, to be steered by mid or high level winds.
Before tuesday morning it will all stay asumptions for many parts of the power and the direction parts.
Then we may have to be quick, in case it goes uncavorable for DR, but as we are always prepared, there will be plenty of time in case of any impact.
During today no surprises happened.
Dorian dropped central pressure by 5mb to 1003mb,
So its windspeed slightly incr3ased to 50mphr as max sustained winds, present only in a very small area on its northern side.
It has til arrival over the islands to intensify and grow, then we have to see how the impact influences the storm. From there on it has only 10-15 hrs to intensify again over the very favorable hot eastern caribbean sea, then the higher level windshear should start to stop the increase of powers.
The exact heading then depends on the real present powers, to be steered by mid or high level winds.
Before tuesday morning it will all stay asumptions for many parts of the power and the direction parts.
Then we may have to be quick, in case it goes uncavorable for DR, but as we are always prepared, there will be plenty of time in case of any impact.