Yes,First storm of the year that has a potential to impact the islands. Predictions of 13 storms this season, if true, means this and 8 more to come over the next 3 months. The DR has been fortunate over the past three years. A couple of close calls but nothing serious for us. The same cannot be said for PR, the USVI and elsewhere.
Now is a good time to review plans and preparations so - You know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em and know when to run away (and where you are going to run to) if need be.
Around tuesday morning, after it passex the Islands, we will get reliable forecasts.
During today no surprises happened.
Dorian dropped central pressure by 5mb to 1003mb,
So its windspeed slightly incr3ased to 50mphr as max sustained winds, present only in a very small area on its northern side.
It has til arrival over the islands to intensify and grow, then we have to see how the impact influences the storm. From there on it has only 10-15 hrs to intensify again over the very favorable hot eastern caribbean sea, then the higher level windshear should start to stop the increase of powers.
The exact heading then depends on the real present powers, to be steered by mid or high level winds.
Before tuesday morning it will all stay asumptions for many parts of the power and the direction parts.
Then we may have to be quick, in case it goes uncavorable for DR, but as we are always prepared, there will be plenty of time in case of any impact.