2019 Hurricane Season

Feb 7, 2007
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Now with 5 pm advisory calculated by Stormcarib
https://stormcarib.com/closest5.htm

Since 11 AM advisory, prediction of tiny movement towards north, closer to PUJ/Bavaro area

Yw7rxvy.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
2,273
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Yes, as u said, landfall at the Cape would be the line with Bavaro to be at the strong northern eyewall, IF there will be a Hurricane coming in such predicted position.
The situation is still the same, we have to wait and see what will finally ne left and running once in the eastern caribbean sea tomorrow morning.
In case it comes bad, by tomorrow afternoon any preparations should be finished.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Yes, as i said, landfall at the Cape would be the line with Bavaro to be at the strong northern eyewall, IF there will be a Hurricane coming in such predicted position.
The situation is still the same, we have to wait and see what will finally ne left and running once in the eastern caribbean sea tomorrow morning.
In case it comes bad, by tomorrow afternoon any preparations should be finished.
 

flyinroom

Silver
Aug 26, 2012
3,819
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A storm, such as this one, heading nnw that stays to the south of Puerto Rico is very dangerous to the D.R. region of Punta Cana.
If it has no land barrier in its way to bounce it off to the north, the Mona canal will be doing some rocking and rolling.
Although it does not appear to be a particularly strong storm,
If I were there (in Bavaro), I would definitely be taking all precautions.
Btw...
Many thanks to MikeFisher for all the updated data. (as usual)
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Fresh hurricane hunter data from the latest flight just 25 minutes ago.
https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Finally the center of the storm been found, it is located well north of the prior assumed position, but can of course change again during/after it passed through the windward islands.
Real surface pressure is a low 1002mb, measured 10seconds/sustained windspeeds on 35 knots.
Conclusion:
Dorian is a upper level Tropical Storm, not well formed but slowly growing powers under favorable conditions.
After passing tje windward islands, what ever powers will be out there then, will have around half a day over perfect hot waters and perfect storm favoring conditions, before Dorian gets into seveal troubleing stuff.

We will most likelt see a Hurricane Dorian tonight, maybe already on the 11PM boletin.

Still the same:
We have to see what is out there in the morning After it finished the pass over the windward islands, which us actually in process.
 

PCMike

Active member
Aug 30, 2008
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If all tays as it is, I can consider my house in Ciudad La Palma...a direct hit
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
I mentioned the data from the hunters flight just around 2hrs ago.
Now, Dorian already over Barbados, the updated data shows a big fast rise of central pressure to 1007mb.
Radar station on nearby Martinique on the NW of Barbados does not show a single rainband near Martinique. That goes with my prior sat asumptions that the NW of Dorian is dry and i am pretty sure about the same for the storms barely existing SE.
This small storm could quickly intensify, but it didnt, because it is bothered and is extremely vulnerable to all influences, including the negatives like when getting in touch with land.
What the satelite loops show as a wide size is on the outer bands just cloud covers, not even rainloads.
We will see how it manages tonight, but i am still confident to see a fleddered and disformed system in the morning.
Sure as heck i hope i am right this time, my house is standing on the same hitline as above Mike's mentioned house. We moved just in here last year november 1st.
So this Dorian would be our first ever test of any wind over 20mphr and real rain who may get the surroundings really wet, lol.
At 9AM i bring my lil princess to her 2hrs morning school, back home i sure will take a very close look on things for the couple days to come.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
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www.mikefisher.fun
The last time i looked on shots, like 30 minutes ago, i did not even see any center, the center location been defined by the findings/data of the hunters flight at 8PM this evening.
To have an eye would mean to have an eyewall, hence a real hurricane.
We will see what NHC says on their evening update in around 30 minutes.
I stopped looking, the next real needed update is the standings tomorrow around mid morning or tomorrows 11AM boletin.
Changes til then are not of big effects for us, we just need to know what is out there tomorrow and to where it is heading tomorrow.
Tonight Dorian can have all the fun of the planet to itself, lol
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
11PM update by the NHC.
Windforce downgraded to just 50mphr sustained winds.
Central pressure still shown as 1003mb, i do not believe this number.
Dorian is getting its azz kicked, pressure is higher and rising and it will not form anything tonight that would be the base for a Hurricane any soon.
Time for a movie and a nap
 

chico bill

Dogs Better than People
May 6, 2016
12,944
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From WFTV in Orlando, Florida

MONDAY 11 p.m. update:

Tropical Storm Dorian crossed Barbados and it lost a bit of its maximum sustained winds. The system now has 50 mph maximum sustained winds and will continue to travel to the west-northwest at about 13 mph. The dry air seems to be weakening Dorian and it seems like it will continue to struggle as at the start of its journey through the Caribbean. Hurricane Hunters investigated the system Monday afternoon and found the system not to be as organized as shown in the satellite.

It is possible that tropical storm or hurricane watches will be issued Tuesday morning for Hispaniola.

From Thursday on the forecast is still very uncertain. There is the potential for some impact in Florida, but it will all depend on how disrupted this system is once it crosses the Caribbean and possibly interacts with the terrain in the Dominican Republic.
 

mountainannie

Platinum
Dec 11, 2003
16,350
1,358
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elizabetheames.blogspot.com
I have downloaded this app to my android phone - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/myradar-noaa-weather-radar/id322439990

(I work at my desk on a MAC but do not have an iPhone)

The App is Amazing - I use it all the time to determine when/where - showers - thunderstorms? Will my nephew be working at scuba diving in Puerto Rico? Will it be safe to go out to the pool this PM? How about the beach tomorrow AM?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
2,273
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
From WFTV in Orlando, Florida

MONDAY 11 p.m. update:

Tropical Storm Dorian crossed Barbados and it lost a bit of its maximum sustained winds. The system now has 50 mph maximum sustained winds and will continue to travel to the west-northwest at about 13 mph. The dry air seems to be weakening Dorian and it seems like it will continue to struggle as at the start of its journey through the Caribbean. Hurricane Hunters investigated the system Monday afternoon and found the system not to be as organized as shown in the satellite.

It is possible that tropical storm or hurricane watches will be issued Tuesday morning for Hispaniola.

From Thursday on the forecast is still very uncertain. There is the potential for some impact in Florida, but it will all depend on how disrupted this system is once it crosses the Caribbean and possibly interacts with the terrain in the Dominican Republic.
Why post now the old message from yesyerday evening 11PM? Thats old and long gone.
We had alresdy updates at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM and most likely our final destiny map will be shown on the 11AM update in a couple hours.
Dorian did still not finish its pass of the Windward Islands, but all night long showed that the storm is running on a steady track. It lost powers over Barbados and does not look impressing this morning, so likely to not see much changes

This means the tracking shown on the 11AM update will be our holy bible for the next couple days.

WE HAVE TO PREPARE TO BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND SURVIVE FINE STRONG STORM WINDS BATTERING OUR HOMES FOR SOME HOURS.

no changes on my personal outlook, i do not see a way how this small organized storm could become a hurricNe, but it doesnt matter that much anyways, qe have to prepare and those preparations are the same no mTyer 30mphr more or less windspeed to receive.

The official warnimgs are already out:
PR: Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
DR: Hurricane watch from Samana over the whole East down to Yuma, Tropical Storm Watch for the North Shores.

On the actual tracking Puerto Rico will get the strongest winds, Teopical Storm winds feom the stronger N sector.
No.Landfall i PR and no Landfall in DR.
Touching PR on its right and DR on its left may let the small storm bounce, so the center may touch DR soil along the East for moments, but thise storms tend to take the easier ways, which us to stay over the water of the Mona Channel and over wayer all along the DR East.
That way the DR will stay on the weak W and SW side and should not receive significant winds nor dangerous rainfalls. But on such close encounyer we have to be prepared ro get the center of a Cat1 Hurricane iver our roof, then all will stay fine.
 

Cdn_Gringo

Gold
Apr 29, 2014
8,679
1,138
113
Looks like a blustery rainy, 24 hours for me in Sosua when the effects of Dorian begin tomorrow night.

My main concerns for this and any storm:

-Extended power outage
-Large maintenance neglected trees on my neighbors property
-No access to funds at the bank
-Having a place to go if being at home is not particularly pleasant

I've got lots of easy food & bottled water.

If the power stays on and no trees crush my house, I should good. Good luck to everyone. Use today to make sure you are prepared to spend a few days without access to the conveniences we often take for granted - just in case.
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
30,247
4,330
113
If history means anything
The north coast rebuffs these storms , being protected by the high lands so close to the shore.

Secondly, because of the clockwise rotation, the weaker, dryer side of the storm is the southern side... the DR side.

I'm not minimizing the issue.... just saying the north coast rarely takes it on the chin !!
Damage yes.... full force, rarely

Another thing to watch is the speed of the storm
2 yrs ago, the 1 st one passed in 8 hrs in Cabrera
The 2nd was 18 hrs

All about speed.... and wind force
The longer the wind is allowed to stay.... the more damage usually
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,814
2,273
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
The hurricane hunters did a fantastic job in and out of Dorian all day long this morning/today so far.
All shown data by the NHC are no longer estimates by satellite coverage, it is real fact data as it happens/is.

Dorian is a fleddered TS and managed to keep its 50mphr windforce.
Its tracking points to the Mona Passage, passing the SW corner of PR by just 20 miles distance.
Its windpowers reach 45 miles out of the center, add an other 10 miles as it carries lost areas on its north and west.
The North and the West bands show to be in process of stabilizing, so feom the N Band PR can await 6-8 inches of waters with max winds up to 70mphr for south central and southeast PR.
The SE and whole E of DR has to expect from a strengthening Western band in the coastal arras of the E for all Yuma, Punta Cana, Miches, Samana winds reaching 60+mphr and over our eastern mountains waters of 6-9 inches.
We should easily be prepared for this kind of winds, which will pass quickly.
The waters will have different effects in our very different and for parts very vulnerable flooding arras.
In PC itself that will pnly be our typical flooded roads.
2 years ago our powerlines stood the 2 hurricanes very well here on the east, but keep in mond that it only takes one weak part on the whole area to start a domino effect on our electricity lines, so we have to prepare for a scenario which may leave us without power for some days for certain areas, stock on easy to handle/store alimentation for some days without a working fridge.

The event should start over PR early wednesday/tomorrow afternoon and last til late night.
For Dr, starting on the SE, some hours later lasting maybe til thursday noon for the PC area, few hours later on everything for the areas further up north along the east coast.
Prepare your place and stay at HOME or at your choosen safe place INDOORS til all is over.
Is is absolutely NOT cool to be out and shoot photos or videos of flying debris, such is only done by irresponsible idiots who then bring rescue crews in danger to safe stupid.
By thursday later afternoon we will all be fine again on the east to go out and help with what ever needed clean up, thats the Only cool thing to do.
From start to end it will last less than 24hrs over all.

Our communications stood in the past years way heavier conditions, so there is hope that phones and internet will work without problems, but who could predict such for sure? Lol.

The important updates will be done today 5PM/11PM, tomorrow 5AM/11AM and 5/11PM and the same hours on thursday.
On friday morning, as a good german born, i plan to have a cold fruehschoppen on a sunny beach.