- Thread starter AlterEgo
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2023 Hurricane Season
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Sorry for my late post today, been driving all the over 400Km back home from our Cibao Weekend back to our home Ranch today,
with several stops on the way to take care of business as yesterday was the 1st.
TS Philippe was shown on the Hurricane Center Forecast correctly, almost stationary drifting SW, then WSW, then WNW(which of course all brought it every day a tad bit more W for a number of days) and now it is heading NW. It is constantly turning, moving finally off the Virgins more Northward and it also should gain speed on that Northward Move.
It is Frontal from South Florida out straight East until after Bermuda, where it curves North, that kept TS Philippe trapped, almost stationery just drifting slowly forward on it's forced Turn.
It should keep turning until NNE-NE wards even missing Bermuda.
For our Island all looks fine and we should stay burning Hot, very Humid with that often resulting in late afternoon or evening showers to bring all that water vapored up during the day back down to us.
Nothing bad in vicinity so far.
with several stops on the way to take care of business as yesterday was the 1st.
TS Philippe was shown on the Hurricane Center Forecast correctly, almost stationary drifting SW, then WSW, then WNW(which of course all brought it every day a tad bit more W for a number of days) and now it is heading NW. It is constantly turning, moving finally off the Virgins more Northward and it also should gain speed on that Northward Move.
It is Frontal from South Florida out straight East until after Bermuda, where it curves North, that kept TS Philippe trapped, almost stationery just drifting slowly forward on it's forced Turn.
It should keep turning until NNE-NE wards even missing Bermuda.
For our Island all looks fine and we should stay burning Hot, very Humid with that often resulting in late afternoon or evening showers to bring all that water vapored up during the day back down to us.
Nothing bad in vicinity so far.
It is kind of funny how the projections for days show it going north but it just keeps on trekking west like it’s on its way here, lol.
you are looking on long range projections.
It is shown moving WNW, which is more W drifting than N walking.
It is moving very very slow forward, did barely move for days.
Right Now it is over the northernmost Leeward Islands and later today it will pass by or go right over the Virgin Islands, which are located just a tad bit W- WNW from the Northern Leewards.
Every little change on the move of such slow moving storm van make a big difference on direction, yes,
but so far it just spent days lingering around the same area, going up and down and left and right a lil bit while not really moving much at all.
Yes, it came more W than it drifted N, but WNW is also way more Westerly than Northerly, isn't it?
According to NOAA it will stay WNW today(that means more W, coming closer), reach a NW Tracking late tonight,
and by tomorrow(wednesday) night it should be walking N on a position N of Puerto Rico.
As you should know, N of Virgin Islands, N of PR or N of Eastern DR, there's no much difference on the map
and for a week in advance forecast to be that precise on Position(even direction) is the high uncertainty.
Always concentrate on the outlook for the actual and the next day, and compare what changed on that from the outlook a day ago etc etc.
The Frontal reaching from Southern Florida out straight East is still there and the mayor player on the tracking game,
it does not allow that TS Philippe can move out to NW or N directions easily, the storm is trapped.
And the location where it is trapped is luckily for all Islanders a good force of wind shear, so powers of Philippe are down and it is bad structured, it's Forces are not concentrated around it's center, they are on it far out S, SE and E sides.
The Frontal is forecasted to open up a gap(weaken it's influencial powers), so TS Philippe would move more towards the N.
If that weakening/opening would not happen, then yes, we would have TS Philippe on the Lattitude around the Northern Leeward Islands/PR/DR to continue to drift way more W than N, on the actual WNW Tracking on slow speed.
We can not forecast the shifting of those steering factors, like the exact movement, weakening/disappearing of that Frontal, for those factors we only can take the very complex outlook by the NHC and compare the actual movement/position every 12hrs to the 12hrs before forecasted position, to spot a Trend on it.
The most important of all in case of TS Philippe, is that it is under good wind shear since many days and due that unorganized,
coming Westward over/near PR and to DR/PC/Samana/La Romana would not give it needed time over hot waters and without wind shear, so no quick intensification to grow a big strong storm.
But that's all speculations in the different directions of possibilities.
We have to see what changes are up on the 5PM outlook and again tonight, as so far nothing looks stable or well predictable out there with such steering influencer.
It is shown moving WNW, which is more W drifting than N walking.
It is moving very very slow forward, did barely move for days.
Right Now it is over the northernmost Leeward Islands and later today it will pass by or go right over the Virgin Islands, which are located just a tad bit W- WNW from the Northern Leewards.
Every little change on the move of such slow moving storm van make a big difference on direction, yes,
but so far it just spent days lingering around the same area, going up and down and left and right a lil bit while not really moving much at all.
Yes, it came more W than it drifted N, but WNW is also way more Westerly than Northerly, isn't it?
According to NOAA it will stay WNW today(that means more W, coming closer), reach a NW Tracking late tonight,
and by tomorrow(wednesday) night it should be walking N on a position N of Puerto Rico.
As you should know, N of Virgin Islands, N of PR or N of Eastern DR, there's no much difference on the map
and for a week in advance forecast to be that precise on Position(even direction) is the high uncertainty.
Always concentrate on the outlook for the actual and the next day, and compare what changed on that from the outlook a day ago etc etc.
The Frontal reaching from Southern Florida out straight East is still there and the mayor player on the tracking game,
it does not allow that TS Philippe can move out to NW or N directions easily, the storm is trapped.
And the location where it is trapped is luckily for all Islanders a good force of wind shear, so powers of Philippe are down and it is bad structured, it's Forces are not concentrated around it's center, they are on it far out S, SE and E sides.
The Frontal is forecasted to open up a gap(weaken it's influencial powers), so TS Philippe would move more towards the N.
If that weakening/opening would not happen, then yes, we would have TS Philippe on the Lattitude around the Northern Leeward Islands/PR/DR to continue to drift way more W than N, on the actual WNW Tracking on slow speed.
We can not forecast the shifting of those steering factors, like the exact movement, weakening/disappearing of that Frontal, for those factors we only can take the very complex outlook by the NHC and compare the actual movement/position every 12hrs to the 12hrs before forecasted position, to spot a Trend on it.
The most important of all in case of TS Philippe, is that it is under good wind shear since many days and due that unorganized,
coming Westward over/near PR and to DR/PC/Samana/La Romana would not give it needed time over hot waters and without wind shear, so no quick intensification to grow a big strong storm.
But that's all speculations in the different directions of possibilities.
We have to see what changes are up on the 5PM outlook and again tonight, as so far nothing looks stable or well predictable out there with such steering influencer.
The projections for days been that it will first turn S, SW, WSW, on slowest speed/almost stationery, then turn slowly on that slow speed more W, then WNW(where is actually is) and NW, NNW etc etc.
As the conditions, which kept it from turning, are hard to predict(constantly changing), you never really know how much time a storm stays trapped and drifts just slowly little by little more westward than expected a week before.
The Joys of Long Range Outlooks, which are really a waste of time for us in the public, the weather doctors should keep them to themself and only show a 2-3 days outlook for the storms, so people would panic way less and not a week in advance and then complain that the weather forecast on their smartphone had it wrong when they took a look on the 14 days Outlook.
To support Mike’s comments
apple.news
Bryan Norcross: Defiant Tropical Storm Philippe bringing flooding rain to some Caribbean islands — FOX Weather
Tropical Storm Philippe is like the middle son who will not under any circumstances do what he’s told to do. In fact, he does the opposite.
apple.news
It's direction it run today is easily seen when comparing it's position from 5AM this morning to Now at 11AM.
It moved clearly NW(not just WNW as last night), so it did turn further towards the Northern directions and it sure will get speed, now that it found it's gap out.
It's forward speed should settle on a good 10 or even up to 15mphr, but with short times slowing down again in case the storm would manage a bit of organization, means it would call in it's thunderstorm activity to be placed closer and around the Center, at the moment the Center is a dry area with all powers far off the center located on it's southern and SEern quadrants.
The corridor N of PR is today without significant wind shear and could allow a bit of organization, but I doubt it will be enough of a time window to really strengthen the storm before it dives into the heavier wind shear area again. Also it's far out southern thunder storm areas are under medium high wind shear, bothering the storm even when it's center is out in the clear for long hours.
As I already wrote an hour ago, by tomorrow evening/night it should be on a NNW or even already straight N Tracking, by then positioned N of Puerto Rico.
For such trappend, unorganized and for days barely forward moving weak storm long range outlooks are even 100 times more uncertain than they are for any storm/phenomenon already, we have to take it by the changes visible as facts like every 12hrs or so, twice a day.
It moved clearly NW(not just WNW as last night), so it did turn further towards the Northern directions and it sure will get speed, now that it found it's gap out.
It's forward speed should settle on a good 10 or even up to 15mphr, but with short times slowing down again in case the storm would manage a bit of organization, means it would call in it's thunderstorm activity to be placed closer and around the Center, at the moment the Center is a dry area with all powers far off the center located on it's southern and SEern quadrants.
The corridor N of PR is today without significant wind shear and could allow a bit of organization, but I doubt it will be enough of a time window to really strengthen the storm before it dives into the heavier wind shear area again. Also it's far out southern thunder storm areas are under medium high wind shear, bothering the storm even when it's center is out in the clear for long hours.
As I already wrote an hour ago, by tomorrow evening/night it should be on a NNW or even already straight N Tracking, by then positioned N of Puerto Rico.
For such trappend, unorganized and for days barely forward moving weak storm long range outlooks are even 100 times more uncertain than they are for any storm/phenomenon already, we have to take it by the changes visible as facts like every 12hrs or so, twice a day.
So by the last outlook, all is still on it's prior awaited way.
TS Philippe is heading NW, keeps turning and it's forward speed is already up on 12mphr.
The short range forecast stays on what we had before, it is moving out Northwards, no changes for Paradise Island.
TS Philippe is heading NW, keeps turning and it's forward speed is already up on 12mphr.
The short range forecast stays on what we had before, it is moving out Northwards, no changes for Paradise Island.
Thank you Mike. This is a tricky one, but I appreciate you analysis. Even if I am useless in theses predication I think you are right on.
The Center of TS Philippe is now located N of Eastern Puerto Rico, heading NW-NNW and keeps turning towards N'ern directions, all fine as awaited.
The forward speed is on minimum 10Knots, so it def got it's free corridor and is moving through it in northern directions, no danger at this point for us, it should stay on it's way Northwards and out of Dodge.
It has since this evening and tonight a time window without bothering wind shear, but this storm is since days so hard bothered and disorganized, I can not imagine that it could get it's structure together and become a Hurricane anywhere on it's path, it is not organized to gain such powers,
so aside from any exact tracking, it should not become anything organized nor strong, just a TS on a Northern Track, possible to bother Bermuda as a TS and on a long shot with high possibilities to hit Atlantic Canuck Land as a weak TS or post tropical storm with max near TS Force winds.
Produced storm surge from Philippe will be way less than most Winter Storms up there North produce, so no need to bring the Ren Deers in.
TS Philippe was a storm trapped by different steering currents, hence it was almost stationery for several days.
Such situation makes long range tracking difficult(high error possibilities), it could have drifted easily a couple hundred miles further West than it did,
but it was since many days clear that it would not have a chance to get organized to become a real threat/strong Hurricane for where ever it's westward drift would have ended, so it was never a real danger for DR.
Yes, you could see the rainfalls of it's southern part as a danger which then easily could have been moved over DR territory, but honestly, such rainfalls are only a danger for the well known areas vulnerable to heavy flooding during every 2hrs rainfall no matter from a TS or Hurricane or a simple Frontal/Vaguada building up over those areas. people living there know in what areas they live and why they still stay there despite that knowledge.
By tomorrow evening it will be gone clearly out of our nearby/neighboured area.
Hopefully it's southern powers will bring some simple rain falls over here, but i guess that's just wishful thinking of mine, running the waterpump for many hours every day since a while due 32-35C burning days with barely any water coming down over night after the hot days at my place.
I spent the weekend at our place in the Cibao at Cruce de Guayacanes de Mao and on sunday we topped this heat with 36C/felt 45C of a hot day.
Needless to say that we needed a heck of extra ice loads to keep the beer coolers fresh.
At this moment we have zero dangers for DR anywhere in vicinity in case of the "storm front/Hurricane season".
Just enjoy sweet Island Life.
Cheers
The forward speed is on minimum 10Knots, so it def got it's free corridor and is moving through it in northern directions, no danger at this point for us, it should stay on it's way Northwards and out of Dodge.
It has since this evening and tonight a time window without bothering wind shear, but this storm is since days so hard bothered and disorganized, I can not imagine that it could get it's structure together and become a Hurricane anywhere on it's path, it is not organized to gain such powers,
so aside from any exact tracking, it should not become anything organized nor strong, just a TS on a Northern Track, possible to bother Bermuda as a TS and on a long shot with high possibilities to hit Atlantic Canuck Land as a weak TS or post tropical storm with max near TS Force winds.
Produced storm surge from Philippe will be way less than most Winter Storms up there North produce, so no need to bring the Ren Deers in.
TS Philippe was a storm trapped by different steering currents, hence it was almost stationery for several days.
Such situation makes long range tracking difficult(high error possibilities), it could have drifted easily a couple hundred miles further West than it did,
but it was since many days clear that it would not have a chance to get organized to become a real threat/strong Hurricane for where ever it's westward drift would have ended, so it was never a real danger for DR.
Yes, you could see the rainfalls of it's southern part as a danger which then easily could have been moved over DR territory, but honestly, such rainfalls are only a danger for the well known areas vulnerable to heavy flooding during every 2hrs rainfall no matter from a TS or Hurricane or a simple Frontal/Vaguada building up over those areas. people living there know in what areas they live and why they still stay there despite that knowledge.
By tomorrow evening it will be gone clearly out of our nearby/neighboured area.
Hopefully it's southern powers will bring some simple rain falls over here, but i guess that's just wishful thinking of mine, running the waterpump for many hours every day since a while due 32-35C burning days with barely any water coming down over night after the hot days at my place.
I spent the weekend at our place in the Cibao at Cruce de Guayacanes de Mao and on sunday we topped this heat with 36C/felt 45C of a hot day.
Needless to say that we needed a heck of extra ice loads to keep the beer coolers fresh.
At this moment we have zero dangers for DR anywhere in vicinity in case of the "storm front/Hurricane season".
Just enjoy sweet Island Life.
Cheers
TS Philippe is out, heading NNW'wards on slow but steady 5-10mphr, this will vary a bit up and down all the time.
Location is way out N of PR.
Chances that I could catch some rain here on the DR East from it's southern parts decreased a lot, I fear I will stay dry and continue to run the solar pump on daily bases for hrs.
The time window for slow intensification or getting organized is already up, the storm is running in the mid-high range wind shear already, which will stay with it for days, then also reaching every day cooler waters up there N on it's way towards ME/Atlantic Canada,
so it should never become a Hurricane, just be a weak TS as the max powers to be awaited.
All our Maps look clear and fine, no dangers awaited for the next days/reminder of this week.
Location is way out N of PR.
Chances that I could catch some rain here on the DR East from it's southern parts decreased a lot, I fear I will stay dry and continue to run the solar pump on daily bases for hrs.
The time window for slow intensification or getting organized is already up, the storm is running in the mid-high range wind shear already, which will stay with it for days, then also reaching every day cooler waters up there N on it's way towards ME/Atlantic Canada,
so it should never become a Hurricane, just be a weak TS as the max powers to be awaited.
All our Maps look clear and fine, no dangers awaited for the next days/reminder of this week.
Just a simple sunday afternoon update, with nothing of concern anywhere out there.
We are all clear around our Island and even on the far east nothing of any potential danger on any way.
The only system on the whole Map is AL92, located very far S of the Cabo Verde Islands, below the 10thN,
so it can not get organized that far S to get a swing, too close to the Equator for that.
NOAA shows it to become a TD/TS by Mid Week, that means steering currents let it head to NWern directions, steeply up, to get a swing and organized there,
so as a "uncertain long shot" I would place it towards the empty mid atlantic graveyard long before reaching the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean.
It is way too young and way too far away to go into any details or show any real positioning and tracking for the next weekend and after,
heck we are still on This Weekend so far.
Looks like we have a hot nice week ahead of us to enjoy.
Have a perfect Sunday Everyone
We are all clear around our Island and even on the far east nothing of any potential danger on any way.
The only system on the whole Map is AL92, located very far S of the Cabo Verde Islands, below the 10thN,
so it can not get organized that far S to get a swing, too close to the Equator for that.
NOAA shows it to become a TD/TS by Mid Week, that means steering currents let it head to NWern directions, steeply up, to get a swing and organized there,
so as a "uncertain long shot" I would place it towards the empty mid atlantic graveyard long before reaching the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean.
It is way too young and way too far away to go into any details or show any real positioning and tracking for the next weekend and after,
heck we are still on This Weekend so far.
Looks like we have a hot nice week ahead of us to enjoy.
Have a perfect Sunday Everyone
Update on AL92, located SW of the Cabo Verde Islands.
The Center of the Disturbance is already located North of the 10thN and shows Thunderstorm Areas quiet well organized around all sides of it's Center.
We have on the North Atlantic 2 strong Fronts that should bring it for the next couple days more W than the originally shown NW, so we may get something to watch out for in a couple days.
On one side, due it's good organization, it could be a TD/TS very soon, as soon as tomorrow,
on the other hand, it is running under medium wind shear powers, which could slow down such progress significantly or damage the organized structure.
On the further Path W towards the Caribbean we have little SAL/dry air on the mid atmosphere, the Sea Surface is hot,
so we may start to watch it closer soon.
It all depends on the shifting of the Fronts up North, to determine if it will run W towards the Caribbean in the first place
and the the shift of wind shear, to see if something strong can build up out of a Disturbance which looks until now from very early stage quiet organized and ready for powers.
So far nothing of danger in our near surroundings for the next days.
Enjoy Paradise Island.
The Center of the Disturbance is already located North of the 10thN and shows Thunderstorm Areas quiet well organized around all sides of it's Center.
We have on the North Atlantic 2 strong Fronts that should bring it for the next couple days more W than the originally shown NW, so we may get something to watch out for in a couple days.
On one side, due it's good organization, it could be a TD/TS very soon, as soon as tomorrow,
on the other hand, it is running under medium wind shear powers, which could slow down such progress significantly or damage the organized structure.
On the further Path W towards the Caribbean we have little SAL/dry air on the mid atmosphere, the Sea Surface is hot,
so we may start to watch it closer soon.
It all depends on the shifting of the Fronts up North, to determine if it will run W towards the Caribbean in the first place
and the the shift of wind shear, to see if something strong can build up out of a Disturbance which looks until now from very early stage quiet organized and ready for powers.
So far nothing of danger in our near surroundings for the next days.
Enjoy Paradise Island.
So TS Sean is born and by this weekend we shall see in what direction with which destin it will move during next week.
Yeah.
Here at my place this morning, cloudy but full humidity, I sit in the shade, zero breeze and I am wet like after a bath.
For the short term TS Sean will not have golden times ahead.
Wind Shear shows effects, the organized structure is gone, so the storm did not intensify anything since yesterday.
The trend of the shifting of the Front on the N does not allow much Northwards Moves for now,
so it seems to be trapped a bit, should slow down forward speed, chumming up cooler waters, if the wind shear stays a bit longer with it then its powers will go further down, back to TD or to a sudden death even.
Such conditions make long range tracking and power calculations near impossible, we already saw that recently with TS Philippe,
so we just keep watching the up dates once or twice a day with an eye on wind shear and steering Fronts.
AL 94 is young and needs to be watched for a while before something can be guessed on that one right off the west African Coast.
So far no danger to spot for our Island anywhere out there.
Her around my turf it is super hot, no breeze to feel, I brought out fertilizer this week for the Cattles Grass after a good rainfall, but now it could really use more water to bring that regrowing process really in a good swing.
Let it Rain, PLEEEEASE.
Wind Shear shows effects, the organized structure is gone, so the storm did not intensify anything since yesterday.
The trend of the shifting of the Front on the N does not allow much Northwards Moves for now,
so it seems to be trapped a bit, should slow down forward speed, chumming up cooler waters, if the wind shear stays a bit longer with it then its powers will go further down, back to TD or to a sudden death even.
Such conditions make long range tracking and power calculations near impossible, we already saw that recently with TS Philippe,
so we just keep watching the up dates once or twice a day with an eye on wind shear and steering Fronts.
AL 94 is young and needs to be watched for a while before something can be guessed on that one right off the west African Coast.
So far no danger to spot for our Island anywhere out there.
Her around my turf it is super hot, no breeze to feel, I brought out fertilizer this week for the Cattles Grass after a good rainfall, but now it could really use more water to bring that regrowing process really in a good swing.
Let it Rain, PLEEEEASE.
TS Sean is weakening and slowing down on forward speed with not much space to move Northward, as awaited.
It is completely fleddered and I don't see how it could come back to powers,
so it should be history very soon.
AL94 is a wide area with powerful portions. It will cross the 10thN today, so then we will see how it gets organized the next 24-48hrs.
It could be a TD/TS by Monday, even already sunday night.
Tracking the same as for Sean, at the moment the northern fronts do not allow Low Pressure systems to move far Northward,
so for the next couple days it should move W-WNW towards the Caribbean.
somewhere between tomorrow evening and monday afternoon we should get a better idea about what is developing there far out of our E and we keep an eye on the tracking currents, in case something big or small would really be heading in our direction.
Btw, Thursday Night we had 3 or 4 good showers of 15/20 minutes each, sadly the only rain for the whole week so far, we need water up here on the lil Hill and I have a lot of humidity to trade in for it, lol. Not the slightest breeze to feel here this morning.
Have a great weekend everybody
It is completely fleddered and I don't see how it could come back to powers,
so it should be history very soon.
AL94 is a wide area with powerful portions. It will cross the 10thN today, so then we will see how it gets organized the next 24-48hrs.
It could be a TD/TS by Monday, even already sunday night.
Tracking the same as for Sean, at the moment the northern fronts do not allow Low Pressure systems to move far Northward,
so for the next couple days it should move W-WNW towards the Caribbean.
somewhere between tomorrow evening and monday afternoon we should get a better idea about what is developing there far out of our E and we keep an eye on the tracking currents, in case something big or small would really be heading in our direction.
Btw, Thursday Night we had 3 or 4 good showers of 15/20 minutes each, sadly the only rain for the whole week so far, we need water up here on the lil Hill and I have a lot of humidity to trade in for it, lol. Not the slightest breeze to feel here this morning.
Have a great weekend everybody
Former TS Sean will move mostly W towards the Leeward Islands for the short life span it has left.
It should disappear way before it could reach the Islands, going down under strong wind shear.
AL94 is still below the 10thN, so we have to wait before it shows face.
So far zero dangers anywhere near our soil.
Have a fantastic Sunday everyone.
It should disappear way before it could reach the Islands, going down under strong wind shear.
AL94 is still below the 10thN, so we have to wait before it shows face.
So far zero dangers anywhere near our soil.
Have a fantastic Sunday everyone.
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