- Thread starter AlterEgo
- Start date
2023 Hurricane Season
- Status
NHC is saying that a new tropical wave is due to form om Wednesday which will move westwards across the Atlantic. Early days but one to watch out for.
Tropical Waves don't "form", they "move" and bring water from E-W, they are the reason why the Caribbean has enough water to survive in such beautiful green way.
What forms are storms, forming out of disturbed weather areas, which get caught by Tropical Waves and moved Westward, while the heavy weather continues to fuel itself/organizes it's thunderstorm activity and grows up into a storm, which is then moving itself by it's own plan.
At the moment Hurricane Nigel is the only Storm on the Map, not even any other disturbed weather area around.
NOAA shows a Tropical Wave in combination with heavy weather to leave the African Continent around Wednesday.
Conditions on our Highway are in general great in favor of storms to form and grow up.
The Important point for Us Islanders is as always:
In which direction will the thing move?, no matter how big or small.
As seen with Hurricanes Lee, Margot and Nigel, the Atlantic High was far away and had weak ridges South and over the USA the Throughs in combination with that, allowed the Storms to go their prefered NWern directions and miss the Caribbean by far, then Turn out NE over open waters(exception Lee, who did not get the curve before Canada).
Lee and Margot and their remaints did quiet mix up the high pressure areas, which are slowly coming back to their "positions".
Later this week we should have a High Pressure Ridge back towards the S of the North Atlantic, such Ridge then forces Storms on a more Westerly Tracking, does not allow them to go on their usual WNW-NW Course.
First we have to wait until the Tropical Wave arrived over water, so we see how much powers are associated with the Disturbance,
then we see what steering currents are present and awaited for the then following days, to get an more precise direction for the brewing storm.
So far it looks like we will have steering conditions moving a system mainly Westwards/towards the Caribbean.
What forms are storms, forming out of disturbed weather areas, which get caught by Tropical Waves and moved Westward, while the heavy weather continues to fuel itself/organizes it's thunderstorm activity and grows up into a storm, which is then moving itself by it's own plan.
At the moment Hurricane Nigel is the only Storm on the Map, not even any other disturbed weather area around.
NOAA shows a Tropical Wave in combination with heavy weather to leave the African Continent around Wednesday.
Conditions on our Highway are in general great in favor of storms to form and grow up.
The Important point for Us Islanders is as always:
In which direction will the thing move?, no matter how big or small.
As seen with Hurricanes Lee, Margot and Nigel, the Atlantic High was far away and had weak ridges South and over the USA the Throughs in combination with that, allowed the Storms to go their prefered NWern directions and miss the Caribbean by far, then Turn out NE over open waters(exception Lee, who did not get the curve before Canada).
Lee and Margot and their remaints did quiet mix up the high pressure areas, which are slowly coming back to their "positions".
Later this week we should have a High Pressure Ridge back towards the S of the North Atlantic, such Ridge then forces Storms on a more Westerly Tracking, does not allow them to go on their usual WNW-NW Course.
First we have to wait until the Tropical Wave arrived over water, so we see how much powers are associated with the Disturbance,
then we see what steering currents are present and awaited for the then following days, to get an more precise direction for the brewing storm.
So far it looks like we will have steering conditions moving a system mainly Westwards/towards the Caribbean.
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
This one will be worth watching. With the SAR so low too I am not surprised at the revised Hurricane Season forecast.
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
This one will be worth watching. With the SAR so low too I am not surprised at the revised Hurricane Season forecast.
It is not just about the SAL, the Ocean Surface Temps are tops and would allow development even with a thick layer of SAL on top of a storm.
But that's no news, we know that since Months.
It is anyways not about a number of disturbances or storms, it is Always about the One that could come too close to our home soil.
This Disturbance just left the African West Coast last evening, so nothing developed, nothing formed, no exact tracking of a still not formed system possible,
it is minimum a week away from the Caribbean, IF it would finally get a tracking towards the Caribbean in the first place.
That we have this season 7 days forecasts instead of the old 2--5 days forecasts, well, so far I do not see any advantage but many disadvantages,
because now people start to sh.it their pants an extra 2 days earlier and panic for nothing earlier than during prior seasons.
I think it would be best when NOAA would go back to the former 2-5 days forecast and keep the actual 7 days forecasts and the experimental longer range forecasts to themself for their professional use, but not to be made accessible for the public.
Hurricane Season takes 50% of the year, for the northern countries add to that the time for their heavy winter storms,
with far out long range forecasts people will be in panic mode a minimum 3/4 of the whole year and for what purpose??
Nobody will prepare for a storm more than 1 or maximum 2 days before the awaited hit of a storm, most preparations are done just a few hours prior to the awaited arrival of a storm.
Would someone prepare differently knowing a week ahead of time that there is a high probability that a storm may come close or right over the area where you live?
So far I only see huge disadvantages due long range storm forecasts, which also takes it's count on Tourism,
as the early forecasts let travelers start to discuss storms for the area of their hotel more ahead of time, without anything positive coning out of it, as people cancel vacations/flights for dates/times/locations where finally no storm will bother not a little bit.
Franklin and Lee been perfect examples of such Panic Mode.
To have knowledge about approaching storms 3 days ahead of time would be easily sufficient, 5 days a long range maximum forecast that should be provided, 7 days and more are a simple weather forecast over kill, no advantage for the public, just longer panic times and due that less life quality time for the public.
But that's no news, we know that since Months.
It is anyways not about a number of disturbances or storms, it is Always about the One that could come too close to our home soil.
This Disturbance just left the African West Coast last evening, so nothing developed, nothing formed, no exact tracking of a still not formed system possible,
it is minimum a week away from the Caribbean, IF it would finally get a tracking towards the Caribbean in the first place.
That we have this season 7 days forecasts instead of the old 2--5 days forecasts, well, so far I do not see any advantage but many disadvantages,
because now people start to sh.it their pants an extra 2 days earlier and panic for nothing earlier than during prior seasons.
I think it would be best when NOAA would go back to the former 2-5 days forecast and keep the actual 7 days forecasts and the experimental longer range forecasts to themself for their professional use, but not to be made accessible for the public.
Hurricane Season takes 50% of the year, for the northern countries add to that the time for their heavy winter storms,
with far out long range forecasts people will be in panic mode a minimum 3/4 of the whole year and for what purpose??
Nobody will prepare for a storm more than 1 or maximum 2 days before the awaited hit of a storm, most preparations are done just a few hours prior to the awaited arrival of a storm.
Would someone prepare differently knowing a week ahead of time that there is a high probability that a storm may come close or right over the area where you live?
So far I only see huge disadvantages due long range storm forecasts, which also takes it's count on Tourism,
as the early forecasts let travelers start to discuss storms for the area of their hotel more ahead of time, without anything positive coning out of it, as people cancel vacations/flights for dates/times/locations where finally no storm will bother not a little bit.
Franklin and Lee been perfect examples of such Panic Mode.
To have knowledge about approaching storms 3 days ahead of time would be easily sufficient, 5 days a long range maximum forecast that should be provided, 7 days and more are a simple weather forecast over kill, no advantage for the public, just longer panic times and due that less life quality time for the public.
The Disturbed weather area is located SW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving quickly Westward,
catching up with an other Disturbed weather area located located out on it's SW, that is moving slower.
So most likely none will be able to develop that close to each other.
After the weekend they should be both around the half way point of our Tropical Highway,
so it is very likely that they merge into one disturbed weather area and as such the probabilities are very high to form a storm.
Conditions are not perfect for fast intensification at this moment, but good enough to allow development and let a storm grow.
We have to see how conditions for development change up or down and ho the steering currents drift.
At this moment the steering currents are strong and point straight West-WNW towards the Caribbean,
but such can change a dozen times until a storm really formed, then the outlook get's clearer/more precise.
A TD could be up already this weekend, but more likely after the weekend on later Monday ahead.
We shall see soon.
catching up with an other Disturbed weather area located located out on it's SW, that is moving slower.
So most likely none will be able to develop that close to each other.
After the weekend they should be both around the half way point of our Tropical Highway,
so it is very likely that they merge into one disturbed weather area and as such the probabilities are very high to form a storm.
Conditions are not perfect for fast intensification at this moment, but good enough to allow development and let a storm grow.
We have to see how conditions for development change up or down and ho the steering currents drift.
At this moment the steering currents are strong and point straight West-WNW towards the Caribbean,
but such can change a dozen times until a storm really formed, then the outlook get's clearer/more precise.
A TD could be up already this weekend, but more likely after the weekend on later Monday ahead.
We shall see soon.
We enjoyed some refreshing rains, albeit short-lived in Cab last night. We need more
TD17 formed up out of AL90 W of the Cabo Verde Islands earlier than expected and is running straight West towards the Caribbean.
By now there is nothing to worry about, as when still many hundred miles off the E of the Islands it will have it's wide open corridor to turn to it's NW and shortly afterwards even N due the Ridges off the US East Shores, so it should never come close to us, no matter what powers it will gain.
Conditions are fine for development, but not perfect for very quick or super strong development for the next couple days.
We will watch but very very likely never will get anything out of it.
Meanwhile in Caribbean Paradise, we will stay under the influence of a Vaguada/Frontal, that already brought quiet some powers over the far SE/Punta Cana area last night.
Up here on my Hill we heard Thunder and saw lightning for many hours in the evening and during last night, but no wind to feel and no rain came down, twice a short 5 minutes drizzle was all of it, the whole evening and night been very humid here, a sign that nearby the weather may have been quiet heavy.
Today the East has high chances to get later afternoon showers or sprinkling, then the rest of the weekend will hopefull stay nice dry,
specially for my belated BD BBQ and Branding Iron inauguration Party tomorrow, lol.
Have a great weekend everyone, CHEERS!!!
By now there is nothing to worry about, as when still many hundred miles off the E of the Islands it will have it's wide open corridor to turn to it's NW and shortly afterwards even N due the Ridges off the US East Shores, so it should never come close to us, no matter what powers it will gain.
Conditions are fine for development, but not perfect for very quick or super strong development for the next couple days.
We will watch but very very likely never will get anything out of it.
Meanwhile in Caribbean Paradise, we will stay under the influence of a Vaguada/Frontal, that already brought quiet some powers over the far SE/Punta Cana area last night.
Up here on my Hill we heard Thunder and saw lightning for many hours in the evening and during last night, but no wind to feel and no rain came down, twice a short 5 minutes drizzle was all of it, the whole evening and night been very humid here, a sign that nearby the weather may have been quiet heavy.
Today the East has high chances to get later afternoon showers or sprinkling, then the rest of the weekend will hopefull stay nice dry,
specially for my belated BD BBQ and Branding Iron inauguration Party tomorrow, lol.
Have a great weekend everyone, CHEERS!!!
Steering patterns for TS Philippe are shifting, so we will continue to watch this one.
It is struggling with some dry air and located in the middle of strong wind shear, so development should not be anything quick,
but the tracking will change on the long range outlook.
The corridor Northward is actually blocked, so it will have this week most likely only a short time to track NW/shift northwards,
then it should be back on a more W Tracking again when not that far out N of the Islands.
AL91 is following so far in the wake of TS Philippe, we will see if it get's organized later this week.
It is struggling with some dry air and located in the middle of strong wind shear, so development should not be anything quick,
but the tracking will change on the long range outlook.
The corridor Northward is actually blocked, so it will have this week most likely only a short time to track NW/shift northwards,
then it should be back on a more W Tracking again when not that far out N of the Islands.
AL91 is following so far in the wake of TS Philippe, we will see if it get's organized later this week.
As mentioned on prior posts, TS Philippe did get it's originally forecasted Northwards Corridor blocked.
It is still a long range shot, but very likely that it will not turn N before reaching proximity of our North Shores, very close that could be.
But, it is bothered by dry air and strong wind shear, which hindered that it could grow up today, it will most likely not even be a TS anymore when close to our Island.
The steering patterns keep shifting, so the long range tracking is very uncertain.
By the actual shifting trend it could be coming towards the Northernmost Tip of DR by around Sunday Night, but I can not imagine that it is still a TS by then.
Just in case there would be more than a lil breeze and some rain, we keep watching.
So far today here on the East, I got twice today on my way down towards PC Village a short piece of a well wet road, so it did rain good but very short at those 2 sections shortly before I arrived, otherwise I had here a super hot and dry day without any refreshing breeze.
It is still a long range shot, but very likely that it will not turn N before reaching proximity of our North Shores, very close that could be.
But, it is bothered by dry air and strong wind shear, which hindered that it could grow up today, it will most likely not even be a TS anymore when close to our Island.
The steering patterns keep shifting, so the long range tracking is very uncertain.
By the actual shifting trend it could be coming towards the Northernmost Tip of DR by around Sunday Night, but I can not imagine that it is still a TS by then.
Just in case there would be more than a lil breeze and some rain, we keep watching.
So far today here on the East, I got twice today on my way down towards PC Village a short piece of a well wet road, so it did rain good but very short at those 2 sections shortly before I arrived, otherwise I had here a super hot and dry day without any refreshing breeze.
This is what I mentioned a few times above, the steering currents/patterns/influencing Factors are shifting and hardly to forecast for a week in advance,
hence the long range tracking changes almost every day or every couple days with a new "destination in a week" for the system.
As fact, the Fronts and Ridges are positioned in a way that does a storm Not allow to get much if any Northward Tracking,
hence we should expect that TS Philippe will track West - WSW when approaching/coming close to the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday.
That's already looking 3 days ahead into the future, the maximum, we have to take the forecasts for the next 2-max3 days for tracking.
As for the "Powers", here all goes as stated since early on,
TS Philippe caught a good amount of dry air and crossed a wide area of heavy wind shear, as opposed to TS Franklin in that same situation, TS Philippe did not manage to get anything organized under the harsh conditions and even that it may get a time window without wind shear later today and tomorrow,
there is no strengthening nor organizing awaited, it should be down to a simple TD Force by late Sat or Sunday.
Again:
The Direction it will go this weekend and early next week, is very uncertain and can change significantly, the same it already changed more than once since it showed up on the Map.
AL91 is on the edge to become a TD/TS very soon, running in the wake of TS Philippe, but that does not mean it will take the same turns and twists, as the shifting steering currents will not be the same for AL91 as they are for TS Philippe when it had been at the same location, but with a few days of a delay.
AL91 will not be bothered by dry air, but it is also betted in a good strength of wind shear, so we will see within the next 48hrs how good it manages to organize itself out there.
We keep watching, but so far no powers out there we should fear or that would scare our cattle.
hence the long range tracking changes almost every day or every couple days with a new "destination in a week" for the system.
As fact, the Fronts and Ridges are positioned in a way that does a storm Not allow to get much if any Northward Tracking,
hence we should expect that TS Philippe will track West - WSW when approaching/coming close to the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday.
That's already looking 3 days ahead into the future, the maximum, we have to take the forecasts for the next 2-max3 days for tracking.
As for the "Powers", here all goes as stated since early on,
TS Philippe caught a good amount of dry air and crossed a wide area of heavy wind shear, as opposed to TS Franklin in that same situation, TS Philippe did not manage to get anything organized under the harsh conditions and even that it may get a time window without wind shear later today and tomorrow,
there is no strengthening nor organizing awaited, it should be down to a simple TD Force by late Sat or Sunday.
Again:
The Direction it will go this weekend and early next week, is very uncertain and can change significantly, the same it already changed more than once since it showed up on the Map.
AL91 is on the edge to become a TD/TS very soon, running in the wake of TS Philippe, but that does not mean it will take the same turns and twists, as the shifting steering currents will not be the same for AL91 as they are for TS Philippe when it had been at the same location, but with a few days of a delay.
AL91 will not be bothered by dry air, but it is also betted in a good strength of wind shear, so we will see within the next 48hrs how good it manages to organize itself out there.
We keep watching, but so far no powers out there we should fear or that would scare our cattle.
As promised, the tracking forecast will change often and significantly.
TS Philippe is still almost stationary, moving less than 5mphr forward, loosing more of the already weak powers it had.
If it stays out there until end of the weekend/Sunday Noon/Afternoon, then there will not be much powers left of it and the the corridor towards the Northern direction could be reopened again and it can move out of the area.
At the moment(standing of early morning today), it can barely move anywhere, it is trapped at the location where it is.
In loess than an hour NOAA will show their 11:00AM forecast, let's see what they tell where it may go.
To me, TS Philippe will not become any danger, not even if it would come straight in on land right here.
AL91 has still chances to become a TD, but they diminish with time, as Philippe is moving super slow/almost standing still, AL91 will come closer and closer and once too close, it will not get conditions for any development.
TS Philippe is still almost stationary, moving less than 5mphr forward, loosing more of the already weak powers it had.
If it stays out there until end of the weekend/Sunday Noon/Afternoon, then there will not be much powers left of it and the the corridor towards the Northern direction could be reopened again and it can move out of the area.
At the moment(standing of early morning today), it can barely move anywhere, it is trapped at the location where it is.
In loess than an hour NOAA will show their 11:00AM forecast, let's see what they tell where it may go.
To me, TS Philippe will not become any danger, not even if it would come straight in on land right here.
AL91 has still chances to become a TD, but they diminish with time, as Philippe is moving super slow/almost standing still, AL91 will come closer and closer and once too close, it will not get conditions for any development.
So TS Rina is born, moving 10mphr NNW close behind TS Philippe,
while TS Philippe is stopped(2mphr) WNW.
While not sure, it is very likely that both will bother each other soon, not a bad thing at all.
As for long range tracking, it is changing significantly on each up date/every 6hrs, so we just watch.
while TS Philippe is stopped(2mphr) WNW.
While not sure, it is very likely that both will bother each other soon, not a bad thing at all.
As for long range tracking, it is changing significantly on each up date/every 6hrs, so we just watch.
After a beautiful long weekend up here in the Cibao/at our house at Cruce de Guayacanes de Mao,
with super hot temps of 36C today(felt like over 40C easily),
the look on the weather maps looks all fine for us before we will ride back home tomorrow morning.
TS Rina is history and TS Philippe will move out NW and then N without coming into any shooting range to DR.
So far all looks fine for us Islanders for this week to come.
with super hot temps of 36C today(felt like over 40C easily),
the look on the weather maps looks all fine for us before we will ride back home tomorrow morning.
TS Rina is history and TS Philippe will move out NW and then N without coming into any shooting range to DR.
So far all looks fine for us Islanders for this week to come.
We had thunder and heavy rains all night in Jamao. This morning, it continues. I worry that I will find a flooded school when I arrive this morning.
Here in Cruce de Guayacanes not a drop of anything all night, it would have been welcome.
The very hot days will continue, so later in the days or evening showers are a typical result after burning days.
starting our way back home in an hour, so in the afternoon I hopefully find the lil Ranch a lil bit wet, not too dry.
The very hot days will continue, so later in the days or evening showers are a typical result after burning days.
starting our way back home in an hour, so in the afternoon I hopefully find the lil Ranch a lil bit wet, not too dry.
- Status