- Thread starter AlterEgo
- Start date
2023 Hurricane Season
NHC is saying that a new tropical wave is due to form om Wednesday which will move westwards across the Atlantic. Early days but one to watch out for.
Tropical Waves don't "form", they "move" and bring water from E-W, they are the reason why the Caribbean has enough water to survive in such beautiful green way.
What forms are storms, forming out of disturbed weather areas, which get caught by Tropical Waves and moved Westward, while the heavy weather continues to fuel itself/organizes it's thunderstorm activity and grows up into a storm, which is then moving itself by it's own plan.
At the moment Hurricane Nigel is the only Storm on the Map, not even any other disturbed weather area around.
NOAA shows a Tropical Wave in combination with heavy weather to leave the African Continent around Wednesday.
Conditions on our Highway are in general great in favor of storms to form and grow up.
The Important point for Us Islanders is as always:
In which direction will the thing move?, no matter how big or small.
As seen with Hurricanes Lee, Margot and Nigel, the Atlantic High was far away and had weak ridges South and over the USA the Throughs in combination with that, allowed the Storms to go their prefered NWern directions and miss the Caribbean by far, then Turn out NE over open waters(exception Lee, who did not get the curve before Canada).
Lee and Margot and their remaints did quiet mix up the high pressure areas, which are slowly coming back to their "positions".
Later this week we should have a High Pressure Ridge back towards the S of the North Atlantic, such Ridge then forces Storms on a more Westerly Tracking, does not allow them to go on their usual WNW-NW Course.
First we have to wait until the Tropical Wave arrived over water, so we see how much powers are associated with the Disturbance,
then we see what steering currents are present and awaited for the then following days, to get an more precise direction for the brewing storm.
So far it looks like we will have steering conditions moving a system mainly Westwards/towards the Caribbean.
What forms are storms, forming out of disturbed weather areas, which get caught by Tropical Waves and moved Westward, while the heavy weather continues to fuel itself/organizes it's thunderstorm activity and grows up into a storm, which is then moving itself by it's own plan.
At the moment Hurricane Nigel is the only Storm on the Map, not even any other disturbed weather area around.
NOAA shows a Tropical Wave in combination with heavy weather to leave the African Continent around Wednesday.
Conditions on our Highway are in general great in favor of storms to form and grow up.
The Important point for Us Islanders is as always:
In which direction will the thing move?, no matter how big or small.
As seen with Hurricanes Lee, Margot and Nigel, the Atlantic High was far away and had weak ridges South and over the USA the Throughs in combination with that, allowed the Storms to go their prefered NWern directions and miss the Caribbean by far, then Turn out NE over open waters(exception Lee, who did not get the curve before Canada).
Lee and Margot and their remaints did quiet mix up the high pressure areas, which are slowly coming back to their "positions".
Later this week we should have a High Pressure Ridge back towards the S of the North Atlantic, such Ridge then forces Storms on a more Westerly Tracking, does not allow them to go on their usual WNW-NW Course.
First we have to wait until the Tropical Wave arrived over water, so we see how much powers are associated with the Disturbance,
then we see what steering currents are present and awaited for the then following days, to get an more precise direction for the brewing storm.
So far it looks like we will have steering conditions moving a system mainly Westwards/towards the Caribbean.
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
This one will be worth watching. With the SAR so low too I am not surprised at the revised Hurricane Season forecast.
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
This one will be worth watching. With the SAR so low too I am not surprised at the revised Hurricane Season forecast.
It is not just about the SAL, the Ocean Surface Temps are tops and would allow development even with a thick layer of SAL on top of a storm.
But that's no news, we know that since Months.
It is anyways not about a number of disturbances or storms, it is Always about the One that could come too close to our home soil.
This Disturbance just left the African West Coast last evening, so nothing developed, nothing formed, no exact tracking of a still not formed system possible,
it is minimum a week away from the Caribbean, IF it would finally get a tracking towards the Caribbean in the first place.
That we have this season 7 days forecasts instead of the old 2--5 days forecasts, well, so far I do not see any advantage but many disadvantages,
because now people start to sh.it their pants an extra 2 days earlier and panic for nothing earlier than during prior seasons.
I think it would be best when NOAA would go back to the former 2-5 days forecast and keep the actual 7 days forecasts and the experimental longer range forecasts to themself for their professional use, but not to be made accessible for the public.
Hurricane Season takes 50% of the year, for the northern countries add to that the time for their heavy winter storms,
with far out long range forecasts people will be in panic mode a minimum 3/4 of the whole year and for what purpose??
Nobody will prepare for a storm more than 1 or maximum 2 days before the awaited hit of a storm, most preparations are done just a few hours prior to the awaited arrival of a storm.
Would someone prepare differently knowing a week ahead of time that there is a high probability that a storm may come close or right over the area where you live?
So far I only see huge disadvantages due long range storm forecasts, which also takes it's count on Tourism,
as the early forecasts let travelers start to discuss storms for the area of their hotel more ahead of time, without anything positive coning out of it, as people cancel vacations/flights for dates/times/locations where finally no storm will bother not a little bit.
Franklin and Lee been perfect examples of such Panic Mode.
To have knowledge about approaching storms 3 days ahead of time would be easily sufficient, 5 days a long range maximum forecast that should be provided, 7 days and more are a simple weather forecast over kill, no advantage for the public, just longer panic times and due that less life quality time for the public.
But that's no news, we know that since Months.
It is anyways not about a number of disturbances or storms, it is Always about the One that could come too close to our home soil.
This Disturbance just left the African West Coast last evening, so nothing developed, nothing formed, no exact tracking of a still not formed system possible,
it is minimum a week away from the Caribbean, IF it would finally get a tracking towards the Caribbean in the first place.
That we have this season 7 days forecasts instead of the old 2--5 days forecasts, well, so far I do not see any advantage but many disadvantages,
because now people start to sh.it their pants an extra 2 days earlier and panic for nothing earlier than during prior seasons.
I think it would be best when NOAA would go back to the former 2-5 days forecast and keep the actual 7 days forecasts and the experimental longer range forecasts to themself for their professional use, but not to be made accessible for the public.
Hurricane Season takes 50% of the year, for the northern countries add to that the time for their heavy winter storms,
with far out long range forecasts people will be in panic mode a minimum 3/4 of the whole year and for what purpose??
Nobody will prepare for a storm more than 1 or maximum 2 days before the awaited hit of a storm, most preparations are done just a few hours prior to the awaited arrival of a storm.
Would someone prepare differently knowing a week ahead of time that there is a high probability that a storm may come close or right over the area where you live?
So far I only see huge disadvantages due long range storm forecasts, which also takes it's count on Tourism,
as the early forecasts let travelers start to discuss storms for the area of their hotel more ahead of time, without anything positive coning out of it, as people cancel vacations/flights for dates/times/locations where finally no storm will bother not a little bit.
Franklin and Lee been perfect examples of such Panic Mode.
To have knowledge about approaching storms 3 days ahead of time would be easily sufficient, 5 days a long range maximum forecast that should be provided, 7 days and more are a simple weather forecast over kill, no advantage for the public, just longer panic times and due that less life quality time for the public.
The Disturbed weather area is located SW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving quickly Westward,
catching up with an other Disturbed weather area located located out on it's SW, that is moving slower.
So most likely none will be able to develop that close to each other.
After the weekend they should be both around the half way point of our Tropical Highway,
so it is very likely that they merge into one disturbed weather area and as such the probabilities are very high to form a storm.
Conditions are not perfect for fast intensification at this moment, but good enough to allow development and let a storm grow.
We have to see how conditions for development change up or down and ho the steering currents drift.
At this moment the steering currents are strong and point straight West-WNW towards the Caribbean,
but such can change a dozen times until a storm really formed, then the outlook get's clearer/more precise.
A TD could be up already this weekend, but more likely after the weekend on later Monday ahead.
We shall see soon.
catching up with an other Disturbed weather area located located out on it's SW, that is moving slower.
So most likely none will be able to develop that close to each other.
After the weekend they should be both around the half way point of our Tropical Highway,
so it is very likely that they merge into one disturbed weather area and as such the probabilities are very high to form a storm.
Conditions are not perfect for fast intensification at this moment, but good enough to allow development and let a storm grow.
We have to see how conditions for development change up or down and ho the steering currents drift.
At this moment the steering currents are strong and point straight West-WNW towards the Caribbean,
but such can change a dozen times until a storm really formed, then the outlook get's clearer/more precise.
A TD could be up already this weekend, but more likely after the weekend on later Monday ahead.
We shall see soon.
We enjoyed some refreshing rains, albeit short-lived in Cab last night. We need more