2023 Hurricane Season

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El Hijo de Manolo

El Hijo de Manolo

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Dec 10, 2021
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I think Lee is a moot point for the DR at this time... no? In Cab, today was ultra desert hot and scorching sun. Last night there were drizzles that left the overnight hotter than the surface of sun. I noticed no breeze. What is the next system that we need to be watching?
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Nothing unexpected/new to report about Lee.
We had it here on the Est at my place agan hot and humid, no wind, some very short showers went throu but very isolated by areas and not lasting more than just 10/15 minutes tops at the locations where I got hit by that in Higuey, La Otra Banda and at home in Vallegina today.
Lee already turned and is heading NW, this should tomorrow be a NNW/N, it sticks to it's very slow forward speed.
So tomorrow again we shall get some short and not significant showers at some areas, while others stay bone dry, no wind expected anywhere, just hot and humid summer time.
Lee is surrounded by strong wind shear and it's fueling waters get cooler the further N it moves, so it should never again intensify on it's path.
Hurricane Lee is now def out of interest for us Islanders.
As for the next system to watch, an other 1 week in advance outlook,
we watch AL97 and AL98, they hit into each other and it is expected that the smaller but stronger formed AL97 will dominate.
It is expected to become a TD by the next weekend somewhere mid highway, moving on the usual 15mphr WNW/NWward,
which would make what ever forms up miss the Islands further out, not even coming as close as Lee, who stayed nicely far away.
Aside of that, nothing forecasted for the next 7 days to pop up, something that could change with every forecast, of course, but then with a 7 days advance first sneak peek on the thing.
Over all conditions on our Tropical Highway are in favor of storm development, if a wet area of disturbed weather would pop up somewhere.
S all looks very fine for the next days to come.
 
W

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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cavok said:
I really expected to at least get some bigger surf from Lee but, so far, it was just pretty much an average day where I am.
Click to expand...
I don't think Encuentro had enough surf to surf. So much for those predictions. We did have a few days of small thunderstorms not related to Lee at all.
At least we got some rain in Cabarete.
 
W

william webster

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Jan 16, 2009
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Much rougher at my NE facing beach this morning

Hi tide was 7:18am

I can see the waves sloshed high but can see no damage
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Lee was a no show for DR and is gone since yesterday afternoon already.
For today:
No News on the Storm Front.
We are watching AL97, but it is a week away from the Caribbean, so far not even expected to reach the Caribbean
and we will not get real News on it before it transformed into a TD, which would be by the weekend.
I guess we will have a few boring days on the weather front now.
As for Local Weather,
last night we had really beautiful very hard rain coming down for a extended time right over my wooden house
with loud thunder and a nice lightning show.
There was no wind blowing during the rainy hours.
Today is for most part cloudy, but the sun broke through during this morning often enough so that my battery storage is already filled up on it 21Kw/hrs and I could run the solar water pump to fill the small 600 gallons Tinaco for the bathroom.
The 2 weeks ago prepared refreshening of the grass on my lower part of the property for the cows had during those 2 weeks perfect watering, so in an other 2 weeks it will already be ready to bring the cattle back down here, while they still have grass for 6 more weeks on the upper part of the property.
This Spring 2023 I was sure that we would get a very dry summer, hence I prepared here to do extra watering and stored dry food of different kind etc to keep my babies fat during "hunger times", but finally summer went over all beautiful wet, perfect water amounts for the animals and the plantation parts.
 
franco1111

franco1111

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May 29, 2013
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The tail of the hurricane lashed La Romana a couple hours ago. Heavy rain. Thunder and lightning. And brisa. This photo is from now. So, a few hours ago you can imagine the more dense part of the tail was passing through.

IMG-5316.jpg
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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franco1111 said:
The tail of the hurricane lashed La Romana a couple hours ago. Heavy rain. Thunder and lightning. And brisa. This photo is from now. So, a few hours ago you can imagine the more dense part of the tail was passing through.

View attachment 8312
Click to expand...
it passed here ca 45 minutes ago, short but nicely strong, no wind felt but loud thunder and lightning for maybe 25-30 minutes.
right now wind is dead on zero, skies are dark clouds for most part.
 
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franco1111

franco1111

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It was 3:00 or 4:00 a.m. that it passed through La Romana. Very intense for a while. And, of course, it knocked out the luz for a few hours. The electric service in La Romana is very fragile in most places. We don't have CEPM there. Bayahibe has the sister company of CEPM - CEB. Private and more reliable. Big generators like CEPM has in Bavaro.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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franco1111 said:
It was 3:00 or 4:00 a.m. that it passed through La Romana. Very intense for a while. And, of course, it knocked out the luz for a few hours. The electric service in La Romana is very fragile in most places. We don't have CEPM there. Bayahibe has the sister company of CEPM - CEB. Private and more reliable. Big generators like CEPM has in Bavaro.
Click to expand...
CEPM was for me for half of my life a mosty reliable source of power,
Since a year on solar power now I am happy not to depend not even on CEPM anymore,
Zero power outs so far, and just in case it would happen, I have a back up power generator to keep the house running and to recharge batteries at the same time.
Fingers crossed, only 1 year of experience with something completely new to me is of course a amateur beginner level, lol.
Since this Noon/early afternoon no more rain here, clouds and sun exchanged places with less clouds by the hour.
 
JD Jones

JD Jones

Moderator:North Coast,Santo Domingo,SW Coast,Covid
Jan 7, 2016
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MikeFisher said:
CEPM was for me for half of my life a mosty reliable source of power,
Since a year on solar power now I am happy not to depend not even on CEPM anymore,
Zero power outs so far, and just in case it would happen, I have a back up power generator to keep the house running and to recharge batteries at the same time.
Fingers crossed, only 1 year of experience with something completely new to me is of course a amateur beginner level, lol.
Since this Noon/early afternoon no ore rain here, clouds and sun exchanged places with less clouds by the hour.
Click to expand...

I have the same. Worth it's weight in gold..
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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AL97, located almost on the half way point between Africa and the Caribbean, is developing quicker than expected,
it should be numbered/named a TD before tomorrow morning.
No changes on Tracking. the System is moving WNW-NW and by now not expected to become a danger for our area.
ADD, as I hit "post" by accident before finishing, lol.
Hurricane Lee as a real Hurricane is done, it is going down, eyewalls collapsed, wind powers decreasing,
BUT, it will hit straight North as a Tropical Storm of the size of a very big Hurricane,
so the ones living within a few miles of the Ocean Front at that area should watch the timeline of the approach and compared to their natural high tides closely,
also in case there would be lower located areas, like a low level Delta or such, as at such locations the water could go a very long way and fil it up.
I am myself zero familiar with that area, so I have no idea if it is in danger of such or not, but all that stirred up water has to go somewhere, and it will go.
Like Sandy, this is a TS of the size of a exceptionally big Hurricane, no matter that it is already in the process to die down and running over cold waters.
The water masses are in movement and will not stop out on open ocean.
 
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C

cavok

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Jun 16, 2014
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I don't know about yesterday since I had to go to SD, but when I got back late this afternoon the surf was much bigger than normal. Took a while, but those waves from Lee finally got here.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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AL97 is now TD15, quiet a number of storms already for this season, which just started it's prime time of the season less than a week ago.
It is not running under the perfect conditions of Lee, it will develop from the beginning under wind shear.
The conditions become better to allow a Hurricane to get it's structure by late weekend/early next week,
it should become the next Mayor Hurricane on the Map and that could happen already before mid week.
The good thing for Us Islanders is the present steering patterns,
it should never become anything to influence our beautiful Island, but more likely could become a Mayor Hurricane Danger for Bermuda.
It is way too early to know the steering patterns shifts for that far out,
so it could turn N and out NEwards before reaching Bermuda and never become a threat for the NE USA and Canada,
it could also be kept moving NW/NNW towards New England and Canada, if the Atlantic High builds back up again a high pressure ride to it's South,
but again, it is way too far to see those shifts of steering patterns.
For Now:
The 15th Storm of the Season is up and the conditions for the next days make it very likely that it will be a Hurricane no later than by Monday Noon.
So far zero danger for our Island, as not on any direction to come near our soil.

Have a great sunny weekend everybody

Screenshot 2023-09-15 112056.png
 
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