Irene is centered ENE of Samana and not on a Track to walk over Samana.
She sticks to Her WNW Heading, passing Samana to the North, so Samana will be on the calmer and dryer Southside of the Storm, so it should also be for the whole Northshores while Irene wanders along there during tonight and during tomorrow.
as long as She does not make any unexpected Turn She will stay off the Coasts of Hispaniola and Our Northshores will stay on the calmer south of the Storm.
I've been 60 miles SW of the Storm today and it was nothing of any danger on windforce and the Rain we received been not worth to be named Rain, more some strong sprinkling.
the bad point on that is of course the Intensification, hence the Danger for the SE USA grows by the hour.
Irene had a damaged Southern Eyewall when she paid us a visit today, that was due the touch with Land in Puerto Rico so dry air came in touch with the Core.
the Girlie went over it and looks actually as if organizing itself very well, upper Level Outflow is already visible since some hours on Her South. later tonight we should see Her intensifying slowly, but once She moves away from Hispaniola somewhere late tomorrow then She will be long hours without interference by any Land, She will grow up very quick, at least the forecasted low-mid range windshear, the Hot Sea Surface and Her well Organizing Process do not show any hindering Indications. She will be immune to any Dry Air or such from tonight on, the High Mountains of Hispaniola would have been the only Force to knock Her down some Pieces, but I guess |She would have survived even that in strong Force.
to Me Irene has all possibilities to become a very large Sized and Powerful Mayor Hurricane of a High Cat 3 or even medium Cat4 strength. the outcome on thursday and friday in case of Tracking depends solely on the expected/forecasted Trough coming down from the US Mainland, it has to come as early as possible to start a Turn northwards, but if Irene reaches Cat3 or even more then I doubt that She will let any Trough influence Her Track too much/too quick, those Powers walk their Way.
even with a Turn towards northern directions the Carolina Borders would still be a Target.
the Bahamas can expect extreme tough Times.
we've been very lucky so far on our lil Paradise Island, let's stay on that lucky Track during tonight and til tomorrow Noon, then we should be able to breath calmly again on the Northshores, too.
here on the East we stayed dry the last Hours, wind is gusting up and down as it did during the whole day today, nothing special to await as a Postre or such.
Mike
