hurricane season 2017

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IslandDreaming

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No such thing as being "Over prepared"

Not sure who they get their information from, but NBC News shows a watch for all of Puerto Rico and the path (It moved south by about 200 miles) going directly over the DR Unfortunately, the DR is not their "Target" audience so they don't even make mention of the possibility of a hit

Good luck to all of you

Almost 20 years ago, I still recall all the experts saying Georges "would only bring a lot of rain" to the DR, a ( I know JD, this is another of those family things ) friend of a friend was in Eastern DR, Higuey I believe with a Sat phone (All other comm had gone down) trying to tell everyone the damm things was running the island over but..........

Hey, don't feel "dumb" because you think the sky is falling, it may very well be and over preparedness is far better than getting caught with your pants down
 
Fulano2

Fulano2

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IslandDreaming said:
Not sure who they get their information from, but NBC News shows a watch for all of Puerto Rico and the path (It moved south by about 200 miles) going directly over the DR Unfortunately, the DR is not their "Target" audience so they don't even make mention of the possibility of a hit

Good luck to all of you

Almost 20 years ago, I still recall all the experts saying Georges "would only bring a lot of rain" to the DR, a ( I know JD, this is another of those family things ) friend of a friend was in Eastern DR, Higuey I believe with a Sat phone (All other comm had gone down) trying to tell everyone the damm things was running the island over but..........

Hey, don't feel "dumb" because you think the sky is falling, it may very well be and over preparedness is far better than getting caught with your pants down
Click to expand...



With all respect but the US GFS even thought it would go up to NY. 
What I can see know on my apps is it will pass by the north of LT and then going slightly north. It will hit Inagua national park, and then the north of Cuba.
But it can change by the hour.
 
Fulano2

Fulano2

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/irma-2017

Idea of how much rain could fall...

uhaI_6_640x480.gif


https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...s-property-in-the-northern-caribbean/70002638
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Fulano2 said:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/irma-2017

Idea of how much rain could fall...

uhaI_6_640x480.gif


https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...s-property-in-the-northern-caribbean/70002638
Click to expand...

too much, much more than a country can take.
the big hit of Irma will be on our Agricultural Sector.
here is the Natural Tide Charts for Punta Cana with their Tide Times.
keep inmind that there is not just 1 tide per day, they run in ca 6hrs cycles,
so ever 24hrs have a 1st High Tide, followed 6hrs later by a 1st Low Tide,
then 6hrs later the 2nd High Tide and an other ca 6hrs later a 2nd Low Tide.
luckliy we are actually not on the years highest nor record high Tides, we are on a "smooth" phase.
but don't take that as a reason to celebrate, it just means we do not get double of the already predicted Wave Powers in.
Samana is in a hot hot zone, the whole Northshores should prepare for the toughest which would be Hurricane Force touches,
the softest scenario for the northshores is actually full TS Force windsall along the Coast.
we have very high chances to touch TS Force winds in PC, too.
the closer we get to Thursday the exacter such stuff can be seen, for the better or for the worse.
a huge difference will be made dependingon the Storms forward speed.
the quicker it moves the less rain and windhours to receive, a simple math.
if the touch with the Leewards and PR and first contact with DR Terrain slow down the Storm significantly,
then it would loose max windpowers on the statistics but it would become much more dangerous,
as the rainloads would still be all there and come down, just for double or tripple of a time span.
better 10hrs of a tough wind than 48hrs of a full rainload.
which ever it will be, none of the scenarios is anything nice, each is dangerous.
so get ready for wednesday night, do not plan to leave your choosen safe location during Thursday, for No Reason.
the whole time line can of course also change significantly, if Irmas would start to slow down forward speed.
and it still has to TURN in the first place.
it is long after any safe turning point, and it is not set in stone that it will turn anywhere today.
we just hope that it turns on the next updates.

Mike

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/punta_cana
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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the Afternoon Outlook.
145912_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


the Ridge stays stable on around 800 miles north of the Storm.
IF it turns and wanders along the DR Northshres,
then it will not have much of a N-Drift while wandering a long there,
it will not be on a motion away from the coast, it will keep teh same distance or even close in while moving West.
Florida is more and more out of the game, as a additional High over the SE protects now the entire Eastshores of the USA,
this Storm has no way Northwards and a Landfall on North Central Cuba is more likely than a move towards Florida or even further North.
this Trend with those Ridges is Not Good, it shows no signs of any Turn, yet.
Let it Turn!!!

Mike
 
W

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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MikeFisher said:
ouch,
almost 50% higher Surf predicted, Surfers Paradise Cabarete.
i am surprised about the still low windpredictions for your soil,
i would expect a much stronger breeze, i fear your charts will change upwards on the scales closer to thursday/wednesday night

Mike
Click to expand...

Just chatting with a surfer, he says that when the surf is that big the waves close out. Surfer jargon, I expect, for they suck. It might really suck to be directly on the ocean and not up over 30 feet above it. That could be an issue.
 
caribmike

caribmike

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Jul 9, 2009
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Not sure if I get it.

So, the predicted cone is when it does a turn not where it goes at the moment when it does NO turn? And if it does not turn would it not go to the south side / caribbean coast instead?
 
D

dv8

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Sep 27, 2006
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hold on a second. has the prediction shifted south now? i thought irma was going to swing further north but it looks like a closer hit now.
 
C

charlise

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Nov 1, 2012
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Talking about rain quantity to receive. What can we expect on the NC ?? Like last fall when water was everywhere between Puerto Plata and Sabaneta de Yasica ?? Or are the soils and rivers be able to support it and digest it without vomiting it all over the place again ??? I want to know if I have to move some of the stuff upstairs ??
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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caribmike said:
Not sure if I get it.

So, the predicted cone is when it does a turn not where it goes at the moment when it does NO turn? And if it does not turn would it not go to the south side / caribbean coast instead?
Click to expand...

thats right.
if Irma forget's about the Turn, it will continue to wander westward into the Caribbean Sea right south of PR and the well known Neighbour Rock aside PR and then do it's Turn.
but we don't need a forecast for such, we don't need Irma on that otha side of the Isle.
Let it Turn.

aso for PC it looks like a quicky.
wednesday night starting to make myself comfy for some movies and drinkets, you have to take 'em as long as they are cold and while the fridge has power.
Thursday a day to not open any door or window, maybe once in a while a quick smoke on the small backside balcony, it is surrounded by other buildings, should be fine, maybe.
Friday depends who get's the Tail rains of Irma, shouldn't be nay bad winds involved, but possible to blow a bit.
Saturday should be a sure bet for a calm sunny Beach day.
a quicky.
if it doesn't slow down on forward speed this scenario is very very likely what we get on the southern part of the East.
the Sea level below 20ft will clean up from the illegal structures on some beaches, thats it.
the winds below 40knots will not do any harm to anybody as long as people stay Inside their choosen safe place.
i am pretty sure that we will be without electricity down here in lil Fisherman's Town, hopefully not for too many days.
the version for Punta Cana for a quick come-quick go fast moving Irma.
i don't wanna see any other kinda Irma.

Mike
 
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