Mike,
Have you looked at this Ventusky model? It shows the potential for a hurricane passing right through SD next Thursday, the 21st? How accurate is this model?
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.5;-69.9;4&l=wind&t=20170921/21
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Mike,
Have you looked at this Ventusky model? It shows the potential for a hurricane passing right through SD next Thursday, the 21st? How accurate is this model?
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.5;-69.9;4&l=wind&t=20170921/21
i dont watch such stuff, would be like looking on a online weather forecast that shows rain for a specific day several days in advance and due that cancel a BBQ, lol
so they predict a hurricane over SD the 21st, next week thursday, a week in advance with no storm developed, yet?
waste of time.
Mike
This is the first text I have been able to post since Irma tore up the Caribbean. I thank you Mike Fisher for your weather information. As a mariner, I have come to trust your forecasting more than many of the so called weather models such as Ventusky which I've found look to do nothing more than stir the pot for recognition and profits rather than giving people accurate forecasts that they can count on. Your forecast for Jose allowed me to make the decision to take a tore up boat from St. Thomas and head out for an 18hr motor hard on it to Anguilla where I was needed to help get much needed water flowing again to the public. Irma tore me up. Lost my entire rig, hard top with electronics, and my port side is beat up good. We rigged up temporary GPS, VHF, and running lights and headed out. Basically, my boat is trashed but we will rebuild her and keep up with our dreams. Keep up the great work Mike, and if you ever decide to go pro for profit in giving sailors weather windows, I'd be your first customer.
Yeeehaaa.
to read from you is the best thing since my daughter been born almost 7 years ago.
never worry about a boat, as every boat can be rebuild with time and passion, even if just a small piece from the originalwould have been left, to build it again around that piece. so the Sailor's Dream will continue to live uninterrupted.
what count's is that you yourself do not need as many "rebuilding" as your beloved boat, lol.
great to hear that you are , despite of the own losses, up and helping the people in need to get their stuff running again.
that's what separate's real Men from from the commercial Talkers.
ghood luckon all
Mike
Rebel --- welcome back .....
look at the following you had ! we all were worried..
Glad to hear you're 'up & running' again.
look at the following you had ! we all were worried..
Glad to hear you're 'up & running' again.
@Rebel
My heart goes out to you! It is not "just a boat". It is your passion, your home, your car, your means of travel, and it holds most of the things you own. Most of all it holds your dream and that cannot be taken away. It took a real beating but you will rebuild and continue living the dream - stronger.
One step at a time.
You are both alive and that needs celebrating. Then the work starts.
I salute you, Captain.
My heart goes out to you! It is not "just a boat". It is your passion, your home, your car, your means of travel, and it holds most of the things you own. Most of all it holds your dream and that cannot be taken away. It took a real beating but you will rebuild and continue living the dream - stronger.
One step at a time.
You are both alive and that needs celebrating. Then the work starts.
I salute you, Captain.
@mike
Morning Mike!
What is your opinion about the 2 systems? It indeed looks like Invest 96 L is heading our way.
I could swear last night I saw in the NOAA iphone app that "14" already had the name "Lee".
Checking the webpage this morning "Lee" is "14" again and "Invest 96L" just a yellow "X" again.... whats going on there?
Morning Mike!
What is your opinion about the 2 systems? It indeed looks like Invest 96 L is heading our way.
I could swear last night I saw in the NOAA iphone app that "14" already had the name "Lee".
Checking the webpage this morning "Lee" is "14" again and "Invest 96L" just a yellow "X" again.... whats going on there?
Storm 14 is on the edge to be TS Lee, could happen any moment.
it was awaited that this one will start quick, but firther conditions looked very bad to give it a chance for a long run.
BUT,
conditions shift and now it could also make it's way to further pastures.
it is too early to guess on possible powers for that one, as it will change too much from now til mid Highway.
Disturbance1, which first looked weak, shows the last hours some organizing.
if conditions run a bit mor favorable it should become the 15th Storm of the Season during this weekend.
it is 2000 miles East of us, but over the weekend we have to monitor it, as the Highway is back on the Trade Winds/Easterlies as the steering currents, so anything wandering on the Highway will be heading towards the Caribbean Islands or at least northern Leewards for a while.
we will watch and not forget that it will be weekend now,
get all BBQ'sand other activities ready, because none will reach us on time to mess with this weekend.
Mike
it was awaited that this one will start quick, but firther conditions looked very bad to give it a chance for a long run.
BUT,
conditions shift and now it could also make it's way to further pastures.
it is too early to guess on possible powers for that one, as it will change too much from now til mid Highway.
Disturbance1, which first looked weak, shows the last hours some organizing.
if conditions run a bit mor favorable it should become the 15th Storm of the Season during this weekend.
it is 2000 miles East of us, but over the weekend we have to monitor it, as the Highway is back on the Trade Winds/Easterlies as the steering currents, so anything wandering on the Highway will be heading towards the Caribbean Islands or at least northern Leewards for a while.
we will watch and not forget that it will be weekend now,
get all BBQ'sand other activities ready, because none will reach us on time to mess with this weekend.
Mike
those Models are like wifes.
in some days they don't remember anything about today's promises for next week, lol.
Mike
...which still can make some nervous and drive some mad. The models and the wives... :/
wifes are easier to handle.
600.- Pesos for the Salon and she wouldn't even notice that i am gone for hours for a Dirt Bike Ride, lol.
Disturbance 1 will be coming into the 1000 miles range approaching the Island Belt tonight,
so tomorow we can have a more detailed look on tracking and power development possibilities.
always see everything from it's positive side:
we are here on the East since Irma on the calmest most beautiful conditions.
this photo been taken at the Marina(from the Outside, what you see is the "rough" surf at the wave breaking barrier at the Marina channel entrance, lol) yesterday morning.
don't worry about next week's weather.
send the wife to the Salon today and have Fun when ever you get a chance to have it.
Mike
Sorry. Wrong picture.
It is the one on the way out; taken still inside the Marina looking on the Exit.
But it been the same on the outside.
Mike
It is the one on the way out; taken still inside the Marina looking on the Exit.
But it been the same on the outside.
Mike
that's the Cap Cana Marina in Cap Cana/Punta Cana.
here's some more.
the ones from the outside/looking on the Beach at the Marina Entrance, is Api Beach,
a beautiful Beach Restaurant at the Marina, in case you visit this side of the Island.
Mike
quick udate on the Highway.
TD14 looks like a short term developer.
growing a couple days and then going down due bad pavement, wandering up to the graveyard then.
Disturbance2/Invest 96L is a Storm in the slow work.
it will need an other 24hrs and may take 48hrs to reach the Storm Status, slowly but coming.
this one has to be monitored, specially for the Leeward Islands again.
Tracking is at this point highly uncertain, as too many significant steering factors are shifting
with the forecasts for those factors ununited about timing and stranght of Fronts.
due that the Tracking Models are far from any agreement, it could be going to anywhere.
we will see if the forecasts for occuring/upcoming/outgoing steering influences get better agreed on during tomorrow.
for now it will bring the bad weather front most likely into the area of the Nortehrn Islands.
Mike
btw,
that long runing Biach Jose is disturbing MY Weekend.
rain on and off since 45 minutes here, Thunder in the neighboru Bay/Bavaro Beach Bay to be heard all afternoon long.
the Radar shows that there is an other big portion of some kinda long rane away from Mommy SE Tail of Jose moving towards the SE of the Island the next long hours/tonight.
it is nothing dangerous, but who needs freakin' rain on such calm times?
Mike
TD14 looks like a short term developer.
growing a couple days and then going down due bad pavement, wandering up to the graveyard then.
Disturbance2/Invest 96L is a Storm in the slow work.
it will need an other 24hrs and may take 48hrs to reach the Storm Status, slowly but coming.
this one has to be monitored, specially for the Leeward Islands again.
Tracking is at this point highly uncertain, as too many significant steering factors are shifting
with the forecasts for those factors ununited about timing and stranght of Fronts.
due that the Tracking Models are far from any agreement, it could be going to anywhere.
we will see if the forecasts for occuring/upcoming/outgoing steering influences get better agreed on during tomorrow.
for now it will bring the bad weather front most likely into the area of the Nortehrn Islands.
Mike
btw,
that long runing Biach Jose is disturbing MY Weekend.
rain on and off since 45 minutes here, Thunder in the neighboru Bay/Bavaro Beach Bay to be heard all afternoon long.
the Radar shows that there is an other big portion of some kinda long rane away from Mommy SE Tail of Jose moving towards the SE of the Island the next long hours/tonight.
it is nothing dangerous, but who needs freakin' rain on such calm times?
Mike
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