2023 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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So, time is up and things show some kinda shape.
Later today we should see the next TS on the Map, around 550-600 miles E of the Windward Islands, moving WNW-NW towards the Leeward Islands.
In case of conditions for development, there is some dry air and wind shear involved, so it will not be something forming super quick and powerful and not in perfect structure/shape, but TS Force powers are already present out there near the center of the surface low, most of it's rains should be located a bit more S of the Center due the bothers of conditions on it's W and NWern sides.
As for Tracking, we have since already early yesterday a corridor open to allow a system to go towards the NWern directions,
so for tonight and tomorrow, once formed, it should wander that way, WNW-NW at least for a day or two.
How the steering currents shift for a long range tracking outlook is very uncertain and has to be taken day by day for no more than the next couple days at a time..
At this moment I would see it as a TS over the Northern Leeward Islands/Virgin Islands heading WNWwards,
but this course could change suddenly in case the front on it's NW would shift into any direction, changing the storm's course completely.
I do not see it growing up as a strong storm for the near future, but there is a vague possibility that it could come close to our soil, so it is one we watch from now on.
Perfect would be a close by pass NE of my home, to move it's southern rain bands right over my head, we are still bone dry over here, even that it rained yesterday on my way to La Otra Banda, not many miles from my soil, but at my place still not a single drop since a while now.
Aside of this above mentioned little one, nothing present i our surroundings and nothing bad awaited for the next days.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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TS Tammy is up and running.
By Friday evening we will see where over the Leeward Islands it really will be in, to get a best idea about tracking/it's Turn.
The Corrido/Path for the Turn is def opening, so it will not stay on it's actual W tracking and i do not see it growing significant powers.
AND:
Right now, since 5 minutes, it is RAINING DOWN ON ME, YEEEHAAAA !!!!!!
It is a small dark cloud area that came slowly in, I hope it will continue that slow, zero wind, to rain down everything it has, I want it All of that.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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It is a interesting constellation of steering patterns/currents we have, to decide on the mid and long term Direction of TS Tammy.
Of course such is never written in stone, much less as a mid or long term tracking,
but here is My Take on how this TS will move the next days/until this weekend.
NW of TS Tammy we have 2 strong frontals, we name those here Vaguadas, which are btw the reason for actual and during the next days maybe some rainfalls over some portions of our Island, we do not get any rain from TS Tammy at this point, too far away for such.
I marked the 2 Vaguadas as V1 and V2 and the RED Lines mark their movement/Currents, which in a few days will point from the SW towards the NE, out of the Caribbean Sea towards somewhere E of PR/Virgin Islands/Northernmost Lesser Antilles.
A weak storm as TS Tammy has no chance to not go by that powerful steering flow, that is it's open Corridor to turn N.
The Storm will Merge with the flow of those Vaguadas and pretty sure be Absorbed by that flow and all together will move over the area E of PR North and NEwards away from the Caribbean.
If the DR will get some rain from the storm's Southern tail is very uncertain, while PR should very likely get something out of it, I have no idea how much, too early to tell.
What we should get in DR for the days to come, is rainfalls from the Vaguadas, they should bring quiet a few rainbands/areas over our soil and refresh some of our dry territory nicely and very needed, a nice early start for our DR "Rainy Season", our winter time used to fill our water reservoirs so our grounds will be ready for the next dryer time of the year starting late spring and running mostly all summer long (even that this summer 2023 was opposed to my own awaitings not that dry but nicely wet for most of the time, wetter than awaited, and thats goood).
We have to watch this TS closely, as such expected sharp turns could fail completely on the long range outlooks, ya never know what Mom Nature could have in mind over night, but above described Tracking for above mentioned reasons is what I await of this to be.
We shall see soon.

Screenshot 2023-10-18 182720.png
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Still jealous on all you guys who get such "torrential" rainfalls somewhere on this Island of ours,
I am bone dry, my waterpump has to run all day long to keep the veggies around the house growing and the pileta of the cows filled up every day, as I did not get a single drop, yet.
as far as our storm goes, TS Tammy:
No real change to the tracking shown from the beginning, NOAA even shows it tonight a tad bit mor East(further away from DR) than originally expected.
As seen on the IR Shot from not even 30 minutes ago, the powers are spread out over a very wide area with the max powers of Thunder Storms shown in 3 main areas, one around the center, yes, a powerful one, and the other 2 well south of the center, which i do not believe will be able to get those together.
The controlling surface low of that wide spread out system is the northernmost part of what you see on the picture,
the Thunderstorm forces there have high TS/near Hurricane Cat1 Force powers, yes.
But the system over all is not a well structured fueled machine awaited from a big storm/hurricane to build up, at least this system could sure not become such within the next 3 or 4 days under the given conditions, which are light masses of dry air and medium wind shear forces contradicting any quick/high power development. And the this morning 25mphr Westward forward speed is now just the 10mphr WNW sped of a Turning storm.
Tammy will stay a high end TS/low end Cat1 Cyclone for many days, until it left our caribbean soil since long, and up there north over cooler waters not much of a big boom should be expected, and if yes, it would be far away from us anyways by that time.
By the look on the system/storm this evening, considering the developments and shifts of the last 24hrs,
it should be a TS/Edge to Cat1 Storm wandering WNW and then NW and then turning further out towards the N,
wandering very close but still E of the Leeward Islands.
Keep in mind that a storm walking such direction moves it's powers on its E, NE and SE of the low pressure Center,
So while those Islands get a TS warning and Hurricane Watch, wind wise they will not be in any danger.
The whole system is moving quiet a wide area stretching N to S of Rain Loads, areas which also contain strong thunderstorm forces up to TS Force,
so areas vulnerable to flooding along the way have to take their precautions, yes.
But so far it does not look like any mayor danger for the areas on it's forecasted path and way less for the DR.
For our own soil we should get lucky to get some very needed rainfalls, but that's it.
We have no storm of any kind on it's way anywhere near the DR.
For Saturday I have some friends invited for a BBQ on the ranch here, so if we have to move the BBQ under the roof of the Veranda I will do my happy Rain Dance, lol.
So far we have no danger anywhere in sight for our DR Soil.

Screenshot 2023-10-19 232200.png
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
So far no changes on the Tracking for Hurricane Tammy, it is on route as awaited since days.
Tracking NW it is running along the Eastern Edge of the Windward Islands and will continue to turn further N Est of the US Virgin Islands.
This will bring Tammy tomorrow/sunday Noon/early afternoon on it's closest point to DR, nicely far out of our ENE.
From there it will keep turning N and NNE, taken by the Frontal Current talked about early this week,
so up there powers will go downhill quickly.
For today's BBQ all looks perfect, sadly zero rainclouds in vicinity.
In around 45 minutes the sun power should be strong enough to start the water pump with the solar system, to keep everything green up here.

Have a great weekend everybody
 
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