Mike, can you explain how El Nino affects DR? This news special says it will last until next year:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/get-ready-for-one-of-the-strongest-el-ninos-ever/
my sunday passed dry today.
no wind around, and it is beautiful in case of temps, as a light cloud cover keeps a lot of the summer heat off.
couldn't be better for a beach sunday.
El Ni?o.
as far as your USA soil goes, the SW and the Gulf Region should get more frequent and stronger winter storms, more rain, which sure will be appreciated.
after years of record heats and record near droughts, a winter with some more rain than usual should not be something bad, even that one single winter could never make up for half a decade of far below average/record near drought conditions, to recompensate for former water losses the necessary water amount would be a costy months lasting flooding, lol.
this coming winter the SW and Gulf Region should get happy with above average rain amounts.
such effects in the south usually come with opposite effects for the northern regions, ones gain is the other's lost.
as for our tropical atlantic region, around Paradise Island,
we do already profit from the mid and eastern pacific conditions all summer long.
what El Ni?o is producing on our side of the planet is strong west to eastern winds in the upper atmosphere,
those winds blow the opposite direction as the usual easterly to westerly blowing winds mid atmosphere and close to ground levels.
that difference of high level and mid/low level winds is what is so often mentioned in hurricane intensification forecasts, it is named Windshear.
such windshear is a significant hindering factor affecting negatively the development of a brewing storm, or hindering a storm to form out of a area of disturbed weather at all from the beginning.
low windshear below 10Knots is not bothering a storm at all, bothers little to nothing even weaker stormy systems, so they can develop/increase powers when other factors like warm sea surface waters and a moistured mid atmosphere surrounding are present.
over 10 and below 20Knots, weaker systems get in trouble, specially when dry air or Saharan Sand are in vicinity, stronger stormy systems develop but on a significantly slower pace than they would otherwise.
over 20 Knots, specially once the 25Knots margin is exceeded, even strong storms have troubles to develop, in co-work with other factors like dry air areas nearby, even strong storms can not keep their powers for too long and start to adjust downwards on the scales day by day.
so under the line,
a El Ni?o effect provides our tropical island with the chances to get less dangers of strong devastating storms to form and make all their way from Africa over here, to be still intact enough to be a threat.
but like any other factor on a storm's birth and then development,
it is just something that betters or worsen's chances,
El Ni?o alone does not mean to guaranteed not get a mayor hurricane near our home,
and the absence of a El Ni?o event/or the presence of it's opposite occurance, named La Ni?a, does not automatically mean to get one mayor hurricane after the other lined up to pass the Islands of the Caribbean.
those events are just shifting the chances of such to happen or to be hindered in a usually well noticable way/amount.
we are almost thru the peak time of Hurricane Season as far as Hispa?ola is concerned, and this year it worked in our favor, so much that we are almost crying out loud for a lil tropical depression to arrive, with lower 20Knots winds and a couple days of stronger downpours, chances for that cry to be heard by higher powers, are Not zero but very slim.
the forecasts suggerate that the actual El Ni?o will last long, deep into next spring,
so statistically(there is no forecast for such, yet) we may face extremely different conditions next summer here, as a so late in spring ending El Ni?o would not provide any El Ni?o-near conditions for mid summer, when we pass that season's peak time frame again.
all those studies are very vague thingies, the professionals are learning significantly more year by year, event by event, as not too long ago nobody paid big attention to such events in case of forecasting conditions/weather a year in advance.
the reality:
the Pro's still need to find a way to tell me about the weather of Tomorrow with a guarantee, lol.
we are already living a positive effect of that El Ni?o Event here in the caribbean,
for the USA on the SW and Gulf Region it should bring some significant relief form the last several years of drought conditions.
the usual fear mongers of the media sure will report about coming Billion Dollars life threatening Flooding Desasters as usual, while more likely the big northern brother will safe even more billions over all on heating costs when a winter runs a couple weeks shorter, brings a bit less snow to some regions and runs just a tad bit warmer than the average winter of the last century did.
but again,
that's all a heck of speculations, professionals are not sure what to think about,
as El Ni?o is only One of Many factors which decide about weather conditions, rain or drought, cold or warmer, snow or swimming pool, one event alone out of the number of significant influencing factors, will not break the bank.
but it is a name know by many, since the media started to mention such often since a decade or so,
so they have something to hype up on, that brings the needed quotes to run TV stations,
and once the hurricane season ended those bubble heads still need something to talk about.
i love those Chics in their sexy outfits and pretty faces,
but i watch those weather forecasts Always with the sound volume on Zero,
to focus on the only signifant stuff shown there.
Mike