hurricane season 2017

[ju10prd]

Yep Dominican COE. Sorry for not being clear in the OP.

If as I suspect and POP_DR alludes to, the warnings come with their 1pm situational update today, it seems to me they are cutting it kind of close. I'm not suggesting that the DR declare a state of emergency 5 days in advance like Florida did yesterday but one would think that if Puerto Rico has watches and warnings posted, the least the DR could do is issue a storm watch notification to get the media interested and start the process of heating up the campo grapevine. This is shaping up to be the most significant weather event of the year so far and the near silence from officials is perplexing.

I agree and there is still complacency even on this board.

I have my hurricane preparedness plan:

Wind up securing the job site today, wait for the 5am NHC bulletin tomorrow to confirm if any shift in track to north, secure apartment and contents, then drive south to SD.

Been there, done this, so my best course of action is to get away from the impacts as far as possible.

 

[POP_DR]

Irma is a cat 5 now. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/051147.shtml

 

[ju10prd]

it is a cat 5 now;

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.


SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

 

[DR Solar]

Had my two workers securing all the outdoor stuff. Larger/ripper coconuts harvested with over 2 dozen in the garage. Some trees trimmed and had a truck haul that away so it does not get airborne.

One of my workers commented that, Dominicans prepare for a storm after the storm. How true.

Our contractor did not show up yesterday afternoon as planned to start to install the shutters. He said that he has been swamped with calls from many others wanting shutters also. He had his trucks going to Santiago all day getting plywood and the lines took forever and the stores running out. He will be here at 10AM with double crew and his best foreman (his son) on the job.

A little caulking to do this AM and take down the solar panels. I have 6 guys doing that since that have to be handed down the outside wall one floor from roof to second floor porch and stored in an extra bedroom.

Outside this AM and everything is soooo calm and quite. Then it hit me. Our normally chatty birds are not here. A few can be heard in the front but very few. It was so strange.

I've wondered if I should do all this with only 70 to maybe 100 mph gusts. But then I have to remember about those ocean swells that could hurl tons of water going at wind speed against all that glass. So going forward with what we planned.

I'm already thinking about a cold beer... at 8AM. lol

 

[IslandDreaming]

The satellite imagery is scary as all get out.

Definate eye and rolling in our direction.


As of yet, no right (Northward) turn...You know, this might be historically nasty storm.



HB,


It is probable that the Cibao Valley will not get any wind damage, but flooding along the Lower Yuna Basin is certainly a concern. That is San Francisco de Macoris eastwards all the way to Nagua.

I think if I lived in that area, I would really start making major preparations. Those of us in the Cibao had better prepare for blackouts and a lack of water.

Jus' sayin'...

Hurricane Hunter in an Orion measured gust at 186mph!!

 

[ju10prd]

Hurricane watches issued for east and north coasts of DR now

 

[ju10prd]

In many of the islands a curfew gets issued by authorities at the onset of a hurricane and whilst the storm passes.

Would that happen here if the storm gets very close? Easy to do on a small island but logistically almost impossible here?

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Woohoo, I can start getting ready now.

My gardener just arrived. As I suspected, he had no idea there was a storm coming. He thought I was moving as the outside furniture is all put away.

 

[william webster]

The wind speed seems to have dropped a bit as the projected path shifts slightly north.

Am I reading it below 100mph now ?

An improvement.... albeit small.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

In many of the islands a curfew gets issued by authorities at the onset of a hurricane and whilst the storm passes.

Would that happen here if the storm gets very close? Easy to do on a small island but logistically almost impossible here?

Doubt it. They don't seem to be that organized here and I fail to see who would enforce a curfew. If you're driving south tomorrow, try to leave as early as you can. Safe travels.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

The wind speed seems to have dropped a bit as the projected path shifts slightly north.

Am I reading it below 100mph now ?

An improvement.... albeit small.

We can always hope...

258
WTNT41 KNHC 051200
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity of Irma.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.

 

[ju10prd]

The wind speed seems to have dropped a bit as the projected path shifts slightly north.

Am I reading it below 100mph now ?

An improvement.... albeit small.

The opposite from 8am advisory:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

 

[mountainannie]

here is the shopping list from the local Palm Beach paper - for hurricane prep - just FYI http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.com/before-the-storm/shopping-list/

 

[cavok]

I'm watching the Weather Channel right now and they say Irma still hasn't turned one bit.

 

[DR Solar]

CNN just reported... Cat. 5 with 175mph at center and building. I know... I should wait for Mike. (at least I don't watch Fox. lol)

Edit: Weather Underground has it at 5 also.

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

For my first, I would have preferred a Cat 1 or 2. For me at this point, having done all that I can and assuming that mi casa will still be here on Friday, I'm most concerned with the potential after affects. I do not like hot humid conditions with no AC, no TV and of course no internet. I'll go nuts if the only option for distraction is talking to the wife and the dogs.

[video=youtube;zYys_Jg9xz4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYys_Jg9xz4[/video]

 

[mountainannie]

a couple of live web cams from two islands east of you https://greatexpectationsusvi.com/webcam/

 

[RonS]

Booze, Cdn! Booze!

 

[jimmythegreek]

CNN just reported... Cat. 5 with 175mph at center and building. I know... I should wait for Mike. (at least I don't watch Fox. lol)

Edit: Weather Underground has it at 5 also.

I don't understand how these models keep projecting a dramatic turn from Cuba into FL, when it appears the hurricane is making a straight link into the Gulf.

 

[bigbird]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/120644.shtml?tswind120#contents