2023 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Hurricane Lee did still not recover the hit from last night and is since some hours in touch with the southernmost part of the wind shear area, only around 25 knots of counter winds, but they manage to force him to keep it's heaviest thunderstorm areas on it's South, which is not natural for such machine,
a big strong Storm heading WNW wanna have it's main force on it's NEern sides to keep the fuel flowing.
hence now it is shown as even weaker than it was in the morning and by Noon today.
The Wind shear does not show any quick move away, so the Storm will come closer to the heavier part of the wind shear to it's North and NW.
Steering Conditions continue great to allow it to continue NWward, while the moment of the Northward Turn as steep as shown on the forecasts is not written in stone, yet.
It will most likely slow down more on it's forward speed, but there is hope that it stays fast enough to stick with the wind shear area, to stay bothered.
If that wind shear moves out, conditions for quick intensification will be right away very good for the Storm, but that far North then it should not manage to come back as a Super Storm, it's top powers are gone and done.
IF wind shear moves out, it could become a Cat3 again, but still not a max power Cat5 again.
If wind shear sticks around during tomorrow, then I don't see it coming back as Cat3 while we are within it's range.
I hope in a few days we remember Lee in our books as our lucky one, the big bad thing that didn't come close by.
As for the actual weather over here, the rest of the day stayed super hot, barely wind to feel, only one short few minutes shower early evening.
I really had hope to get some more rain during today from the Vaguada, but since early morning nothing happened.
Maybe tonight, while I see the stars out on one side, the other is pitch dark, so there is hope.
It is still super hot and humid up here.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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As for the new system AL97 SW of the Cabo Verde Islands,
it's location and move on steering currents would make it a Westward Runner towards the Caribbean,
but it's initial powers and size do not indicate that it will form something big,
so we can expect this one to have some few days developing slowly on the far east, but not managing to do the whole 9 yards and ride over here.
 

El Hijo de Manolo

It's outrageous, egregious, preposterous!
Dec 10, 2021
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Hurricane Lee did still not recover the hit from last night and is since some hours in touch with the southernmost part of the wind shear area, only around 25 knots of counter winds, but they manage to force him to keep it's heaviest thunderstorm areas on it's South, which is not natural for such machine,
a big strong Storm heading WNW wanna have it's main force on it's NEern sides to keep the fuel flowing.
hence now it is shown as even weaker than it was in the morning and by Noon today.
The Wind shear does not show any quick move away, so the Storm will come closer to the heavier part of the wind shear to it's North and NW.
Steering Conditions continue great to allow it to continue NWward, while the moment of the Northward Turn as steep as shown on the forecasts is not written in stone, yet.
It will most likely slow down more on it's forward speed, but there is hope that it stays fast enough to stick with the wind shear area, to stay bothered.
If that wind shear moves out, conditions for quick intensification will be right away very good for the Storm, but that far North then it should not manage to come back as a Super Storm, it's top powers are gone and done.
IF wind shear moves out, it could become a Cat3 again, but still not a max power Cat5 again.
If wind shear sticks around during tomorrow, then I don't see it coming back as Cat3 while we are within it's range.
I hope in a few days we remember Lee in our books as our lucky one, the big bad thing that didn't come close by.
As for the actual weather over here, the rest of the day stayed super hot, barely wind to feel, only one short few minutes shower early evening.
I really had hope to get some more rain during today from the Vaguada, but since early morning nothing happened.
Maybe tonight, while I see the stars out on one side, the other is pitch dark, so there is hope.
It is still super hot and humid up here.
Mike, tbh, I cannot decipher from this post what this means for the North Coast. Will we see rain and wind or nothing.
 

chico bill

Dogs Better than People
May 6, 2016
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Well north of Puerto Rico

Everything seems to be making a sharp turn North, just as Margot is doing too
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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084611_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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We have swells beginning now on the north coast in my area
Hurricane Lee is still on the weak side with only a lil bit over 100mphr of maximum wind speed, due wind shear bothering it's Northern sides since long now.
Due that it is forced to carry it's strongest Thunderstorm areas on the South, they are now specially in the SW Quadrant of the Storm,
and that's where PR and Hispañola are located , so even with this way weaker than orginally awaited Storm, there is a heck of a storm surge rolling N, W and SW of the Center.
It is expected to slow further down for the next days, so we may be Ocean Wise under the Influence of the Storm's Swells for almost a full week from now.
Such movements/above average wave action on our beaches for such long time, that will be the damage Lee is bringing to DR and PR.
The Tracking does not show changes since last night, the steering currents and the drift of the Wind Shear N of the Storm are still on the same trend.
And in 30 minutes the new up date will be out for this sunday noon, too.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Not huge swells but larger than normal
Yes, such storm surge is not like a Tsunami, coming in from one moment to an other to hit,
it is constantly rising surf on top of the regular natural surf, getting stronger and fast little by little and then shaking up those beaches that way constantly for a few days. the loss of land/Sand is then seen once it passed.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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No news on the 11AM update now.
It goes by the awaited trend.
Hurricane Lee is on a move to slow down, wind powers are now shown with 110mphr, so it is almost again a so named Mayor Hurricane/almost Cat3 again.
This slowing down will let it grow on size/expand it's area of influence, that also means wider spread out and due slower storm speed also longer hours of a surf well above the average surf, the destructive weapon of this Hurricane.
 

limeyi

New member
Aug 25, 2021
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Toronto, Canada
Is the Las Terrenas area protected by a reef at all? We arrive this Thursday and I wonder about beach erosion possibilities. It’s great to see local commentators rather than the talking heads on TV making guesses as to conditions!
Thanks to all.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Reefs are a beaches protection under normal tidal conditions over the year.
Once the Ocean get's stronger/playing rougher than usual, also Reefs get overrun by swells and can bring waves to a beach.
The further out in front of a beach a reef is located, the less effects of bad weather/surf conditions on that beach.
Reefs located very close to a beach are little to no protection from stormy high suf.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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We are living in Smart Times, even that I think that humanity on average get's less smart in any way day by day, lol,
but we have smart phones, smart tablets, smart tv's, I even have a smart MIL who is the best cook of the world here on the Ranch, lol,
and now we also have a smart bad Storm, Hurricane Lee.
The Bi.tch keeps slowing down and stays with that close but nicely below/S of the heavier wind shear,
so it is slowing down forward speed and at the same time rising it's powers again, a solid Cat3 now, a so named Mayor Hurricane.
There are no changes on the Tracking, I am astonished by the exactitude of the tracking forecasts for a full week in advance, as so far with this one again it had been on point.
We will feel the Surf Powers of Hurricane Lee for all this coming week long and everywhere, in PR, in DR, the Bahamas, most of the US East Shores from S up to the Canuck neighbours.
For some this may become a super looong week leaving significant footprints.
To this moment no landfall is awaited anywhere, that's the very good point,
but Bermuda has to monitor very closely, as it is a close call for that lil Island about what they may get out of this thing.
 
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BermudaRum

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Oct 9, 2007
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For some this may become a super looong week leaving significant footprints.
To this moment no landfall is awaited anywhere, that's the very good point,
but Bermuda has to monitor very closely, as it is a close call for that lil Island about what they may get out of this thing.
Ditto
 
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