2019 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

No changes so far and i dont expect anything dramatic for the rest of tonight.
Dorian does not look like a real storm, even that without doubt it has the windpower to be a named storm and the characteristics to try to get the real look alike, but til now it failed.
Still the same scenario for us, we have to wait til Dorian managed the Lesser Antilles and wanders in the eastern caribbean sea, thats the moment when model runs will agree on a certain path and on certain power development.
I still dont believe in the Hurricane SE of Hispaniola shown on the NOAA long range forecast. It is a possibility, but a very unlikely one.
Dorian will be over or nearby south of Barbados early monday evening, that will bring first real data specially about its real fact powers, as the windpowers shown til then are only guestimates by looks on satellite shots, and such estimates are very very difficult for such small storm, as details of this one are hard to be seen on the satellite coverage. Big storms are way easier for that.
Monday evening Barbados or slightly south of barbados as a tropical storm, then right away tuesday morning over the windward islands somewhere south of St Lucia to enter the caribbean sea, where we will see/know its real face and powers for the first time.
I expect it by tuesday morning to be a mid level TS with no well defined circulation.
It has then 10-15 hrs to get anything together and intensify over very favorable hot waters with a very high heat content in the eastern caribbean sea, then the mid strength windshear will together with the already present dry air hinder further strengthening.
I see it as a weak to medium TS wandering the northern caribbean sea WNWward pointing towards Cuba or even into the western caribbean sea.

Again, all long shots with high uncertainties.
We have to wait til it has passed the windward islands on tuesday morning or at least maybe shows face over barbados monday evening.
It could be a stronger than awaited/estimated storm and as such take a more NW ern route towards the SE or S-Central of Hispañola.
My own estimates tend on a weak storm struggling and moving more west missing us completely on our south.

 

[Celt202]

No changes so far and i dont expect anything dramatic for the rest of tonight.
Dorian does not look like a real storm, even that without doubt it has the windpower to be a named storm and the characteristics to try to get the real look alike, but til now it failed.
Still the same scenario for us, we have to wait til Dorian managed the Lesser Antilles and wanders in the eastern caribbean sea, thats the moment when model runs will agree on a certain path and on certain power development.
I still dont believe in the Hurricane SE of Hispaniola shown on the NOAA long range forecast. It is a possibility, but a very unlikely one.
Dorian will be over or nearby south of Barbados early monday evening, that will bring first real data specially about its real fact powers, as the windpowers shown til then are only guestimates by looks on satellite shots, and such estimates are very very difficult for such small storm, as details of this one are hard to be seen on the satellite coverage. Big storms are way easier for that.
Monday evening Barbados or slightly south of barbados as a tropical storm, then right away tuesday morning over the windward islands somewhere south of St Lucia to enter the caribbean sea, where we will see/know its real face and powers for the first time.
I expect it by tuesday morning to be a mid level TS with no well defined circulation.
It has then 10-15 hrs to get anything together and intensify over very favorable hot waters with a very high heat content in the eastern caribbean sea, then the mid strength windshear will together with the already present dry air hinder further strengthening.
I see it as a weak to medium TS wandering the northern caribbean sea WNWward pointing towards Cuba or even into the western caribbean sea.

Again, all long shots with high uncertainties.
We have to wait til it has passed the windward islands on tuesday morning or at least maybe shows face over barbados monday evening.
It could be a stronger than awaited/estimated storm and as such take a more NW ern route towards the SE or S-Central of Hispañola.
My own estimates tend on a weak storm struggling and moving more west missing us completely on our south.

Outstanding information as usual.

Compliments on your English. Did you go to English boot camp? Your English before was idiosyncratic and delightful.

 

[MikeFisher]

As awaited, nothing big happened since last night
No further pressure drop, slight strengthening of Estimated windspeed to 60mphr.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=02&length=24
As seen on the real time satellite loop, Dorian is not anywhere near to get an upgrade.
No organization visible. Even that such small storms do often easily fight off the dry air, unless medium to strong windshear would inject such, i am pretty sure that Dorian is running a dry engine, otherwise it would show organized and nice formed and would have developed a lot in the favorable surroundings it is running in.
It is now closing in to Barbados, tomorrow morning wandering over the Windward Islands.
I expect tomorrow at this time to see a fleddered TS, trying to recollect its rainbands, of which some may be out of the reach of its winds, as those do not reach out more than 20-25 miles from a not eaxctly to be located Center.
In 24hrs from now we will get a clear picture about Dorian.

 

[MikeFisher]

Celt,
Maybe my english show's up different the last days, as i am off the computer and only type on the phone.
As typos etc on the phone are plentiful, i check read before i press Send, something i don't do when on a keyboard.
On a keyboard i type while doing something else or think about the next work piece or correct my daughters home work at the same time, so i just type blind and press Send, lol.

 

[Caonabo]

Possible damaging effects of a stronger storm aside, do you see this first "event" capable of bringing the RD some of the much needed rain the country as a whole needs?

 

[caribmike]

I read somewhere it will have max 6 inch of rain and it is a small system, doubt there will be much water but I am not the expert...

 

[MikeFisher]

I dont see much relief from drought, in general storms do not bring real relief.
If they bring water, it is most time too much water over a much too short time period, so what hammers down does more damage to crops etc than it would relief from drought conditions.
The best would be Dorian wandering close to us along our southcoast, so its northern part with the water would wander with around 15mphr over land from east to west, raining down constantly for a nice time period in a 2-3 inches range of amounts, that would be a real significant relief.
But such things as Dorian seldom run "perfect".
A Vaguada, bringing a couple days of low wind constant on/off rain, would be what we could need.

 

[PCMike]

I was in agreement with you yesterday about Dorian passing to our south, but watching the pressure gradients for the past 24 hours, Dorian has sights on the Mona Passage now. As both of us know, 24 hours out is when we really know what is happening, but the passage will allow Dorian to maintain some spin, given the small size. Planning for a blustery 24 hours from mid Wednesday to late Thursday here in the east...regardless of path taken.

 

[MikeFisher]

I dont like todays model runs neither, they shift to a NW course and that trend would bring Dorian more towards Mona Passage and PR, taking a opening between the 2 Low Systems north of the greater Antilles.
If it slips in that space towards Punta Cana/PR or drifts west with the lower level winds, will depend on its powers once it entered the caribbean sea.
A weak TS will steer more West with the lower level wind flow. If coming out strong and strengthening even to a Hurricane, then it would be more likely to steer NW into the Gap between the 2 bypassing/approaching Lows.
Tomorrow morning we will see, the forecasts may continue to change opinions/scenarios til then/the next 20hrs.

 

[cobraboy]

"We could use the rain."

 

[MikeFisher]

Real useful rain yes, but the loads dumped down in a short time by a storm are seldom really useful.
A Tropical Storm or let alone a Hurricane in the Mona Passage or over the SE, is nothing we would see useful or would need.
After a record low busy august, a storm over punta cana now would guarantee a record low september and october to follow, none of that the DR Tourism needs this summer season
But we cant change those things anyways, so we have to wait and see.

 

[Caonabo]

With the fact known that major cyclonic events are a rarity for the Punta Cana region, are the areas marinas properly prepared in the event of one? Such as codes meeting minimum standards that are seen globally?

 

[rubio_higuey]

Current projected path (11 AM advisory)

using https://stormcarib.com/closest5.htm

 

[william webster]

The rain will help refill the reservoirs.... as for crops....no
too much , too fast to be of benefit

 

[reilleyp]

Real useful rain yes, but the loads dumped down in a short time by a storm are seldom really useful.
A Tropical Storm or let alone a Hurricane in the Mona Passage or over the SE, is nothing we would see useful or would need.
After a record low busy august, a storm over punta cana now would guarantee a record low september and october to follow, none of that the DR Tourism needs this summer season
But we cant change those things anyways, so we have to wait and see.

Slightly off topic, but still DR related, are you saying the negative press about the DR, specifically Punta Cana, may have reduced the number of tourists? There is a big debate on here and other DR pages. Some say yes and some say no. You are there doing business, what has been your experience?

 

[PCMike]

Slightly off topic, but still DR related, are you saying the negative press about the DR, specifically Punta Cana, may have reduced the number of tourists? There is a big debate on here and other DR pages. Some say yes and some say no. You are there doing business, what has been your experience?

Yes...June July and August were brutally slow in Punta Cana.

 

[MikeFisher]

Theb****load if us american press has mayor and decastating effects on DR tourism, all is down on record lowest levels.
But such is a theme for other topics not here on the hurricane topic

 

[MikeFisher]

Her the lonks for real time radar stations, to observe live the approach of Dorian to Barbados.
Martinique radar from Meteo France:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_mart_mf_com.html

Radar stayion Trinidad y Tobaco
You have to switch to the 400km radar loop, to see Barbados covered.
http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/Radar_Imagery

Once Dorian left the coverage of the Martinique Radar, we will rely on the PR Radar station as the only available, but as so often this radar station is not sending any data at the moment, so we may stay blond again once Dorian comes closer to our soil.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?overlay=11101111&loop=no&rid=jua&product=N0R

A combination of the eastern caribbean radar loops, this shows nicely the Dorian approach on Barbados and qill cover the run over the Windward Islands later on.
If the PR station comes back to life it would also show Dorian all its way toward PR/Hispañola.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Comp...e&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=1566840418

 

[MikeFisher]

The estimated/not really to be located "Center" of Dorian is closing in on Barbados.
Its NW is bothered, the SE barely existent, on the far NE a former strong thunderstorm cell is diminishing.
Dorian getting a bit compacter again, after it looked expanding earlier today. Such expansive look can come from dry air blocking on the NW, to get compacter again would be a safe mecanism to keep some shape.
The next 12- 15 hrs we will see how it manages during interaction with the small islands.
Then in the morning we will see in what shape/size/direction it will come out of the fight, to get final power and timing and heading data for its time near and/or over PR and Hispañola.
Since this noon Dorian did not gain more powers nor did it show any better organizaton.
Let's see Barbados and the Windwards kick its azz to get some noches down during tonight.

 

[MikeFisher]

Interesting animation,
Into the Future View on Dorian,
Doing landfall here at the Cape on the southern tip of the east coast, bringing us its center over punta cana but nothing for the ones who hope for real rain, as the wet and strong northern side stays out on Sea, the southshores would be with the weak southern side of a Cat1 Hurricane.
This look into the future radar also shows the worst possible scenario, nothing bad considering that it runs by the expectation of a hurricane landfall in my backyard.
A windy day and a couple days without sunburns.
To be added, not shown on the look into the future:
A close by walk to PR SW and then approaching Hispañola's rough terrain, will knock down such hurricane and finally bring us less windpowers than shown on the future radar play.